Unfortunately, the major problems
from high inflation rates flow not to investors but to society as a whole.
That said, the assets that offer better protection
from high inflation rates include:
Not exact matches
If they fear that a retreat
from free trade will harm future growth, and our ability to pay them back without resorting to
inflation, they'll demand
higher «real»
rates on their loans.
In other words, would pushing the short - term interest
rate down to 0 percent,
from the current
rate of 0.16 percent, propel the GDP growth and
inflation to such permanently
higher levels?
Its
rate hikes can be used as a tool to help prevent
inflation from climbing too
high.
Economists doubt the jobless
rate can fall that low again without touching off
inflation, as employers are forced to offer
higher pay to attract workers
from a dwindling supply of unemployed.
Real interest
rates, which subtract
inflation from the nominal
rate to show the true cost of borrowing, soared as
high as 8 % in the aftermath, as demand for goods and services evaporated and prices tumbled.
I'm crunching on other stuff so this will be brief, but I've been reading a fair bit of commentary about how Trump's fiscal plans — infrastructure investment and tax cuts — won't help the economy; «they'll be recessionary, they'll deliver
higher inflation and interest
rates, they'll force the Fed to move
from brake - tapping to brake - slamming.»
As usual, investors then became too excited and bid
inflation expectations too
high, along with assets that benefit
from higher growth and interest
rates — i.e., banks, small - cap stocks, energy and industrials.
According to Genworth Financial's Cost of Care Survey for 2017, the annual median cost of services increased by an average of 4.5 percent in 2017
from the prior year, the second -
highest year - over-year increase since the study began in 2004 and nearly three times the overall
rate of
inflation.
This is especially true when we move
from low
rates in a low
inflation environment to
higher rates.
Don't mistake my views for complacency: rising
rates from higher levels when
inflation is greater is a huge problem for stocks.
So we like owning assets with the
highest convexity to
inflation, with an additional layer of expressions that will benefit
from benign moves
higher in real
rates.
Under these conditions, there is substantial risk that the additional stimulus
from larger deficits will lead to
higher inflation and interest
rates.
Dollar claws back ground after Beige Book; Canadian dollar sells off after BOC decision Bank of Canada leaves interest
rates unchangedThe U.S. dollar edges slightly
higher against its main rivals on Wednesday as the British pound falls
from a new post-Brexit
high on disappointing
inflation data, and the Canadian dollar slips as the Bank of Canada left
rates unchanged.
The European Union's statistics agency said Thursday that consumer prices were 1.2 %
higher than in April 2017, a fall
from the 1.3 %
rate of
inflation recorded in March.
The Fed's perennial challenge is to keep
rates high enough to prevent the economy
from overheating and igniting
inflation — but low enough to nurture healthy growth.
Policy
rates were also lowered by 300 basis points in Turkey as
inflation in that country continues to decline
from high levels.
-LRB-...) The European Union's statistics agency Wednesday said consumer prices in that month were 1.4 %
higher than a year earlier, an increase
from the 1.1 %
rate of
inflation recorded in February.
As Chart 2 shows, policy
rates in Canada have on average been only 0.25 %
higher than the US (using quarterly observations) since the introduction of
inflation targeting
from the Bank of Canada in 1992.
The central objective of policy, most mainstream economists believed, should be to achieve a low and relatively stable
rate of
inflation, since there were no permanent gains to be had
from higher inflation.
If unemployment is low and
inflation is expected to rise above the Fed's long - term objective of 2 %, the Fed may decide to increase
rates to prevent
higher inflation and the economy
from overheating.
It's amazing to me how quickly opinions have shifted
from the 2009 - 2013 thinking of «interest
rates and
inflation are going to scream
higher because of the Fed» to the 2014 - 2015 mindset of «we think interest
rates and
inflation will be subdued for the next decade or so.»
The upturn in
inflation is already nudging U.S. interest
rates higher even before the Federal Reserve's next meeting five weeks
from now.
We believe that a
high degree of economic confidence for the euro zone will lead the ECB to hike
rates next year, even though
inflation will likely remain far
from the bank's price - stability objective.
In June, when there was a sharp fall in the value of the currency, median
inflation expectations rose sharply,
from 3.4 per cent to 4.5 per cent, their
highest rate in two years.
Importantly, when a preferred share is trading at a
high current yield relative to the market yield, the investor receives a measure of protection
from the impact of rising interest
rates (or, if we're focused on real returns, the impact of rising
inflation).
From those ashes emerged the Great Bull Market (1981 to 2000), as
inflation expectations remained much
higher than the actual
rate.
For example, if
inflation is expected to increase in the future, individual and institutional investors may demand
higher rates from their financial instruments.
In response to the threat
from inflation, which in August of this year reached a 16 - year
high, Mexico's central bank sharply tightened monetary policy, increasing interest
rates at seven consecutive meetings up to June.
To be sure, not surprisingly, market peaks in the
higher inflation,
higher rate environment of the late 1960s to the mid-1980s tended to occur at a lower valuation, not far
from where we are today.
«The question that we should ask is how can you inherit a budget deficit of 9.3 % of GDP, proceed to reduce taxes, bring down
inflation, bring down interest
rates, increase economic growth (
from 3.6 % to 7.9 %), increase your international reserves, maintain relative exchange
rate stability, reduce the debt to GDP ratio and the
rate of debt accumulation, pay almost half of arrears inherited, stay current on obligations to statutory funds, restore teacher and nursing training allowances, double the capitation grant, implement free senior
high school education and yet still be able to reduce the fiscal deficit
from 9.3 % to an estimated 5.6 % of GDP?
He noted that the mess in which Ghana's economy finds herself is evident in the rising cost of living, skyrocketing levels of
inflation,
high bank lending / interest
rates, and hikes in petroleum and utility prices, amongst others, which have left Ghanaians reeling
from unprecedented levels of hardships and suffering.
But the projected increases,
from # 1.025 billion in 2011 - 12 to # 1.089 billion in 2014 - 15, will not keep up with the
higher than expected
rate of
inflation (forecast to be around 4 % for 2011).
These
rates are
high because they include 2.50 % (plus
inflation)
from principal.
I see opportunities in regions and sectors that may benefit
from solid fundamentals and somewhat
higher interest
rates and
inflation.
After all, if you're really able to cover your annual living expenses by drawing roughly 3 % ($ 81,000 in your case)
from your nest egg and then increasing that amount each year by the
inflation rate to maintain purchasing power, there's a
high likelihood your nest egg will be able to support you for upwards of 40 years.
To get past that, short - term interest
rates will have to decline to the point where there is no competition
from interest
rates at all, but where the slightest amount of interest
rate pressure would either drive
inflation higher or force a massive contraction in the Fed's balance sheet to avoid that outcome.
To be sure, not surprisingly, market peaks in the
higher inflation,
higher rate environment of the late 1960s to the mid-1980s tended to occur at a lower valuation, not far
from where we are today.
It would signal a switch in the Fed's priority
from worrying about low growth to worrying about rising
inflation; and if they are right, that could very well mean
higher mortgage
rates.
By 2026 I want to receive at least 24,000 $ in passive income per year (including income
from my intellectual property which can be seen as more active than passive but still recurring income) and then I want that income to grow forever at a
rate higher than
inflation (I seek 8 % per year).
At the peak of the bubble with P / E10 = 44, assuming a TIPS interest
rate of (2.2 %), withdrawing 4 % of the initial balance (plus
inflation)
from a fixed,
high stock allocation was dangerous.
Simply going to the
high end of the Morningstar Dividend Investor newsletter's growth
rate goals is enough to compensate for an increase in
inflation from 3 % to 5 %.
At today's valuations P / E10 = 28 and TIPS interest
rate of 2.2 %, withdrawing 4 % of the initial balance (plus
inflation)
from a fixed,
high stock allocation is far
from safe.
As
inflation was tamed and interest
rates descended
from an eye - popping 15.8 % in 1981, the value of
high - yielding investment - grade bonds increased dramatically.
Despite
inflation rates that are
higher than reported, you can still protect your investments
from being ravaged.
Our expectation is that gradually
higher levels of
inflation breakevens will result
from firmer
inflation data in the coming months, while a move
higher in real
rates will be virtuously tied to cyclical changes in real growth.
The Fund pursues its investment objective by investing primarily in fixed income securities, such as U.S. Treasury bonds, notes and bills, Treasury
inflation - protected securities, U.S. Treasury Strips, U.S. Government agency securities (primarily mortgage - backed securities), and investment grade corporate debt
rated BBB or
higher by Standard & Poor's Global
Ratings or Baa or
higher by Moody's Investors Service, Inc., or having an equivalent
rating from another independent
rating organization.
For example, the double - digit
inflation of the 1970's was caused by banks keeping interest
rates low in an attempt to stimulate a weak economy, at a time when imported
inflation from the oil shock was
high (leading to stagflation).
So we like owning assets with the
highest convexity to
inflation, with an additional layer of expressions that will benefit
from benign moves
higher in real
rates.