the figures in the above were based on: «Deriving global climate sensitivity
from palaeoclimate reconstructions» Hoffert and Covey, Nature Vol 360, 10th December 1992.
Evidence
from palaeoclimate records suggests that this circulation has changed dramatically in the past, and there is concern that it could be disrupted in the future.
In models run with the GISS forcing data, the «natural + anthropogenic» temperature evolution matches observations very well for a climate sensitivity of 0.75 °C / W / m ², which agrees with the value derived
from palaeoclimate data.
Not exact matches
«The discrepancy could arise, of course,
from the opposite problem: that the
palaeoclimate proxy data are underestimating hydroclimatic extremes.
Ecological tree line history and
palaeoclimate — review of megafossil evidence
from the Swedish Scandes Leif Kullman Article first published online: 2 JAN 2013
Accounting for this results in recent historical estimates for TCR and ECS that are more consistent with constraints based on
palaeoclimate data and process - based constraints
from modern climatology.
Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived
from GCMs and
palaeoclimate data are suggested.
Quoting
from a paper that was accepted: «Many
palaeoclimate records
from the North Atlantic region show a pattern of rapid climate oscillations, the so - called Dansgaard — Oeschger events, with a quasi-periodicity of ∼ 1,470 years for the late glacial period» http://www.nature.com/articles/nature04121
The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why
palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree - ring data diverge
from the PDSI - based drought record in recent years9, 10.
Smith, A., Wynn, P., Barker, P., Leng, M., Noble, S., & Stott, A. (2016) Cave monitoring and the potential for
palaeoclimate reconstruction
from Cueva de Asiul, Cantabria (N. Spain).
DOI: 10.5038 / 1827 - 806X.45.1.1928 Cave monitoring and the potential for
palaeoclimate reconstruction
from Cueva de Asiul, Cantabria (N. Spain)
The evidence
from surface temperature observations is strong: The observed warming is highly significant relative to estimates of internal climate variability which, while obtained
from models, are consistent with estimates obtained
from both instrumental data and
palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Both terrestrial and marine
palaeoclimate proxies (Thompson, 1991; Dowsett et al., 1996; Thompson and Fleming, 1996) show that high latitudes were significantly warmer, but that tropical SSTs and surface air temperatures were little different
from the present.
Hansen and his colleagues summarise the challenge as follows: «If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilisation developed and to which life on earth is adapted,
palaeoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced
from its current 385ppm [parts per million] to at most 350ppm.»
In using AOGCM output in this way, it is important not only to demonstrate that these unforced simulations do not drift significantly (Osborn, 1996), but also to evaluate the extent to which model estimates of low - frequency variability are comparable to those estimated
from measured climates (Osborn et al., 2000) or reconstructed
palaeoclimates (Jones et al., 1998).
He is interested in
palaeoclimate proxies, biotic evolution and stratigraphy, with particular emphasis on the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera
from deep sea cores.