Sentences with phrase «from paleoclimate»

Temperature histories from paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based on modern instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years, and possibly longer.

«It is unlikely that coastal cities or low - lying areas such as Bangladesh, European lowlands, and large portions of the United States eastern coast and northeast China plains could be protected against such large sea level rise,» states a report co-authored by Hansen, titled «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous».

We can obtain this «long - term» climate sensitivity from paleoclimate data by finding the scale factor that causes the GHG forcing to match the paleoclimate temperature change as accurately as possible.

Interactive comment on «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2C global warming is highly dangerous» by J. Hansen et al..

Human - made climate forcing is stronger and more rapid than paleo forcings, but much can be learned by combining insights from paleoclimate, climate modeling, and on - going observations.

From Paleoclimate data we know that the Eemian was approximately 1.5 C warmer and had sea levels were ~ 4.5 m higher.

That might have changed this week with the coverage of announcement of «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous» by James Hansen and 16 other eminent scientists.

Efforts to estimate climate sensitivity from paleoclimate records... face the additional challenge of a proxy record that contains major uncertainty.

Eli, and the bunnies, have been following the on line review of Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous by J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson - Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A. N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K. - W.

Based on these data, the 10 - year period, 1146 — 1155, was selected as a scenario of worst - case warm drought from the paleoclimate data for the past 12 centuries over the Southwest.

I am inclined to agree with 2 - 4.5 C. Richard Alley has a very nice lecture supporting this from paleoclimate.

These uncertainties may partly explain the typically weak correlations found between paleoclimate indices and climate projections, and the difficulty in narrowing the spread in models» climate sensitivity estimates from paleoclimate - based emergent constraints (Schmidt et.

It also sends a disturbing message that AR4 is somehow backing away from paleoclimate - based claims made in the TAR where the results from paleoclimate studies were highlighted.

Then as now, conclusions are drawn from a combination of information from paleoclimate, modeling, ongoing observations, and theory.

Verdon, D. C., and S. W. Franks (2006), Long - term behaviour of ENSO: Interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleoclimate records, Geophys.

In the case of the earth, there is also an immense amount of evidence (from theory, from paleoclimate, even from observations of other planets) to bring to bear.

Third, our calculations are for a single fast - feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity, 3 °C for doubled CO2, which we infer from paleoclimate data.

«All of the information» surely includes knowledge gained from paleoclimate, modeling, observations of ongoing climate change, understanding of physical processes, etc..

Our analysis is based on about equal parts of information gleaned from paleoclimate studies, climate modeling, and modern observations of ongoing climate changes.

A best estimate of climate sensitivity close to 3 °C for doubled CO2 has been inferred from paleoclimate data [51]--[52].

Long - term behaviour of ENSO: Interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleoclimate records (Verdon and Franks, 2006)

Figuring out the mechanisms for ocean circulation modes depends on the evidence from paleoclimate, and on the stabilities seen via the great computer simulations.

Our understanding of ENSO and its connection to background climatic conditions comes largely from the paleoclimate record and model simulations.

Verdon and Franks (2006)-- for instance — used «proxy climate records derived from paleoclimate data to investigate the long - term behaviour of the PDO and ENSO.

temperature could have exacerbated the 2014 drought by approximately 36 %... These observations from the paleoclimate record suggest that high temperatures have combined with the low but not yet exceptional precipitation deficits to create the worst short - term drought of the last millennium for the state of California... Future severe droughts are expected to be in part driven by anthropogenic influences and temperatures outside the range of the last millennium.

Masson - Delmotte, V., et al. (2013) Information from paleoclimate archives, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.

The information derives in part from paleoclimate data, the record of how climate changed in the past, as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field.

Quote from another paleoclimate grad student in conversation «the deniers never hate on us the way they do the tree ring people,»cause our data is solid».

Verdon, D. C., Franks, S. W., 2006, Long - term behaviour of ENSO: Interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleoclimate records, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 6, March 2006, DOI: 10.1029 / 2005GL025052

Originally posted on Open Mind: A new paper by Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous is currently under review...

The initial title of «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous» had the final phrase changed to «could be dangerous.»

«Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous» J Hansen, M Sato, P Hearty, R Ruedy, M Kelley, V Masson - Delmotte,... Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 (6), 3761 - 3812, 2016

Maybe you don't know much about the sum of radiative forcings, or findings from paleoclimate, that allow climatologists to calculate that human emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for 100 + % of recent warming, but that doesn't mean nobody does.

Sato, 2011: Paleoclimate implications for human - made climate change.In Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects.A.

The effects on upper ocean pH. The high climate sensitivity evidence from paleoclimate and models.

The estimate for the CO2 sensitivity comes (mostly) from paleoclimate studies, observed climate responses to volcanoes, and climate models.

If you refer to the fact that CO2 levels rise after temperature rises (from paleoclimate sediment core studies, etc.), this MOST CERTAINLY DOES NOT imply anything in the way of causality.

What is true is that there is very very strong evidence from paleoclimate data (deep sea sediment cores) for changes in the distribution of chemical tracers that must reflect changes in the deep circulation in the Atlantic.

That is the case whether you are extrapolating from paleoclimate data or from any recent temperature dataset vs atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements (eg Keeling curve).

But it could be even worse — with the GHG feedback added in, the full response from the paleoclimate effects looks like it could multiply the IPCC estimates by a factor of 4 to 6.

I feel obliged to add my 2 cents from the paleoclimate data perspective.

Summary for Policymakers Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Chapter 8 Supplement Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional Chapter 11: Near - term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability Chapter 12: Long - term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Chapter 13: Sea Level Change Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change Chapter 14 Supplement Technical Summary

Stefan is not saying «we don't learn anything from paleoclimate records».

This paper takes a novel approach to the problem of reconstructing past temperatures from paleoclimate proxy data.

The research drew lessons from paleoclimate studies of the Last Glacial Maximum, the cold peak of the last ice age, that relate to the extent of warmth possible in an era of accumulating greenhouse gases:

On July 23, I wrote about the rocky rollout, prior to peer review, of «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous.»

One other point on cloud feedbacks from a paleoclimate perspective — if a strong negative cloud feedback begins at modern earth temperatures, it would be unlikely for past temperatures to have exceeded modern ones.

For question (1) IPCC 2013 Working Group, The Physical Basis, Chapter 5, Information from Paleoclimate Archives:

There are tons of studies — ranging from paleoclimate studies to studies of volcanic effects, etc. that constrain climate response and which generally yield results consistent with the models.

The full title is: «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 o C global warming could be dangerous ``.