Often bargains can be found on series plays where you're laying -400 or greater, since these types of bets mainly attract underdog money
from public bettors.
Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate one - sided action
from public bettors and react by shading lines to force these bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game.
Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate one - sided action
from public bettors, and they react by shading lines to force «square» bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game.
It's possible these betting trends change before tip - off, but it's fascinating to see one of the nation's top teams receiving such limited support
from public bettors.
Trend to know: The Jags are getting lots of love
from public bettors after beating Houston 45 - 7 in Week 15.
Unders (which are less popular) are hitting more often than not, especially in games with higher totals — which often garner tons of over bets
from public bettors.
Not exact matches
It's extremely rare to see double - digit road favorites, but that hasn't stopped
public bettors from hammering the Patriots.
As you can see
from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are taking Michigan at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
As you can see
from the line history above,
public bettors on FSU +7.5 or +7 were already taking the «sharp» side.
As you can see
from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are taking Kansas at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
Public bettors overwhelmingly take favorites and overs, which makes perfect sense
from a psychological standpoint.
Using the
public betting trends
from our seven contributing sportsbooks, we have a terrific grasp on how many
bettors are taking each side, but the more important piece of information is how much money has been placed on each side?
One - sided
public betting caused the total to increase
from 213.5 to 214 on two separate occasions, but sharp
bettors immediately pounded the under both times.
By utilizing our
public betting trends
from seven contributing sportsbooks, we're able to see which teams the
public bettors love and bet on the opposite side.
Although
public bettors are overwhelmingly taking the Diamondbacks, the Rockies have actually dropped
from +149 to +146 at Pinnacle.
This one sided
public betting has pushed the line
from Baltimore +9.5 to +10, meaning that
bettors can pick up a free half - point purely based on
public perception.
With oddsmakers adjusting for injuries and
public bettors hammering the home chalk, the line has moved
from MIA -7 to MIA -10.
The Packers season has been anything but pretty, but that hasn't stopped
public bettors from putting some money on the cheeseheads each week.
Despite the majority of
public bettors taking the over, early sharp action on the under caused the Game 2 total to drop
from 220.5 to 220 at Pinnacle.
Public bettors do seem to be getting cold feet betting on the underdog in this one, as Nunes has gone
from a pick»em to +110.
As you can see
from the table below, betting against the
public has not been an effective strategy for second half
bettors.
In PJ's article this morning, he notes how
public bettors are all over the «over», but sharp
bettors on the under have caused the line to move
from 8 to 7.5.
By tracking
public betting percentages
from seven prominent offshore sportsbooks, we are able to accurately determine which teams»
bettors are taking and what factors are contributing to line movement.
Often times
public bettors shy away
from betting the draw, which is why you'll usually see betting percentages very lopsided on the favorite.
With both
public and sharp
bettors taking the over, the total has increased
from 153.5 to 154.5 at Pinnacle.
Whether it's due to the meteoric rise of fantasy football, hyping of the sports media or the incredible popularity of football in general,
public money
from casual
bettors dominates the NFL betting market.
By utilizing our
public betting trends
from seven contributing sportsbooks, we are able to see which teams are being pounded by a majority of
public bettors.
Although the Yankees are typically a very
public team, the fact that they have dropped
from +400 to +450 indicates that
public bettors may no longer be smitten with the «Evil Empire.»
With limited action for our primary College Basketball betting system, we were curious whether
bettors could also benefit
from betting against the
public on College Basketball totals.
Note: Our
public betting percentages come
from our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks and represent real bets placed by real
bettors.
But that isn't stopping the
public from piling on Boston, as 75 % of
bettors are taking the Celtics as a 4.5 - point favorite.
This is mostly due to reverse - line movement, as Man United are a very popular bet among
public bettors but they've moved
from -185 to -155 at Watford.
This information indicates that even though a majority of
public bettors like New Orleans, large wagers
from sharp
bettors have been taking Washington.
This has moved the line on Real Madrid
from +158 to +149, but
bettors should be careful to note that this is a mix of
public and sharp money, rather than sharp money alone.
With a majority of
public bettors taking LSU, the Tigers have moved
from +7 to +6.5.
This indicates that most sportsbooks have likely been taking big money
from sharp
bettors on Pittsburgh to counter the influx of
public / square money on Indianapolis.
With a majority of
public bettors taking the favorite, Stanford has moved
from -4 to -4.5.
This article will be updated throughout the day as we observe changes to the lines and
public betting trends, but
bettors can view the latest odds and trends
from our free College Basketball odds page.
After seeing the line dip back to 5.5,
public bettors continued to pound Carolina and the line once again moved
from -5.5 to -6 on Saturday, January 30th at 2:29 PM eastern.
Public bettors so far are jumping on Michigan State, which is different
from the norm when dealing with a Notre Dame game.
Since this article was initially published on Tuesday,
public betting has started to even out and the percentage of spread
bettors taking Carolina has dipped
from 73 % to 70 %.
This post will remain «live» through kickoff of the College Football Playoff Championship Game on January 12th between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks and will be constantly updated to reflect major line moves,
public betting trends, sharp money indicators (action
from professional
bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and relevant betting analysis, so please check back often.
Nearly 60 % of
public bettors are loading up on Burnley at a price of +134 but we've actually seen the line move away
from them.
These results aren't meant to deter
bettors from utilizing
public betting trends to find value in the sports betting marketplace, but it does indicate that purely betting against the
public is not always a winning strategy.
It will be constantly updated to reflect major line moves,
public betting trends, sharp money indicators (action
from professional
bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and any other relevant betting analysis so please check back often.
The majority of
public bettors (57 %) are taking big underdog Seattle to win straight up, but their odds have drifted
from +355 to +411 since opening.
Contrarian
bettors can easily capitalize one market overreactions by fading the
public, but that's an especially profitable strategy in heavily bet games with limited involvement
from sharp
bettors.
Looking at our
public betting percentages and Bet Signals data, we can conclude that the movement has been caused by one - sided action on the Jets,
from both sharp and
public bettors.
In an attempt to confirm this theory, the first step was determining how often a majority of
bettors have taken the favorite using the
public betting trends
from our seven contributing sportsbooks.
We've seen some reverse - line movement on Liverpool
from -191 to -202, but
public bettors keep taking Brighton at a great price.