Of course, warming
from solar forcing (or reduced aerosols) would tend to increase the total convection even if the LW water vapor feedback is saturated at the surface (not the same as saturated at the tropopause or TOA).
Some of the cases also implied interpretations that were incompatible with some of the other cases, such as pronounced externally induced geophysical cycles and a dominant role of long - term persistence (LTP); slow stochastic fluctuations associated with LTP make the detection of meaningful cycles
from solar forcing difficult if they shape the dominant character in the geophysical record.
The causal case is a cumulative case of: 1) correlation + 2) well - evidenced mechanism (i.e. plausibility) + 3) primacy, where the proposed cause occurs before the effect + 4) robustness of the correlation under multiple tests / conditions + 5) experimental evidence that adding the cause subsequently results in the effect + 6) exclusion of other likely causes (see point 7 as well) + 7) specificity, where the effect having hallmarks of the cause (ex: the observed tropospheric warming and stratopsheric cooling, is a hallmark of greenhouse - gas - induced warming, not warming
from solar forcing) 8) a physical gradient (or a dose - response), where more of the cause produces a larger effect, or more of the cause is more likely to produce the effect +....
I must say, responses to the simple idea of a time lag
from solar forcing were sometimes not reasonable, considered, or rational, although the worst responses were from bloggers with little understanding of the arguments, rather than moderators who were at least partly informed of the details.
«early 20th century warming is attributed to a composite of greenhouse warming, an uncertain contribution
from solar forcing, and a recovery from a previous period of heavy volcanism»
Erl Happ and Svensmark have some nice ideas on the response of the upper atmosphere
from solar forcings which could be made to fit my proposition that the rate of energy loss to space is affected by the amount of turbulence on the solar surface which does have an effect on the thermosphere and possibly all the other portions of the atmosphere from stratosphere upwards.
Not exact matches
Net metering, plus savings
from producing their own power, can save
solar panel owners up to two - thirds on their energy bills, and have been a driving
force behind the rooftop
solar revolution.
The fate of several state policies that allowed SolarCity to operate had become more uncertain, thanks mostly to hostility
from the entrenched utilities, and the company was
forced to pull out of Nevada altogether after the state's public utilities commission voted to significantly cut benefits for homeowners with
solar.
; compliance with the standard will necessitate major changes to the electrical grid, which will separately drive up customer delivery charges as utilities are
forced to accommodate intermittent generation
from solar panels and wind turbines.
The Cuomo administration estimates the Clean Energy Standard, chiefly its nuclear subsidies, will add an average of $ 2 to residential electric bills, although the Empire Center calculated the standard would hike the average residential bill by more than $ 2.09 in 2018 and by $ 3.40 in 2021
from added supply costs alone; compliance with the standard will necessitate major changes to the electrical grid, which will separately drive up customer delivery charges as utilities are
forced to accommodate intermittent generation
from solar panels and wind turbines.
Earlier studies on the sensitivity of tropical cyclones to past climates have only analyzed the effect of changes in the
solar radiation
from orbital
forcing on the formation of tropical cyclones, without considering the feedbacks associated to the consequent greening of the Sahara.
Magnetic
forces that form around Earth protect the planet and humankind
from most of the intense
solar activity.
A decrease in
solar radiation, they suspect,
forces the jet stream to fold back on itself over the Atlantic, creating a large spiral of air that can stay stable for weeks and prevent westerly winds
from reaching Europe.
A flood of information
from planet - hunters such as NASA's Kepler space telescope, coupled with improved models of how planets and
solar systems work, is
forcing us to reconsider another set of geocentric views — this time about what a planet capable of harbouring life should look like.
ACC, another energy award recipient, installed a 14.5 - megawatt
solar photovoltaic array at Davis Monthan Air
Force Base using a power purchasing agreement, where a power company installed the array and the base agreed to purchase power
from it at a similar or lower fixed price.
A suite of Sun - gazing spacecraft, SOHO, STEREO and
Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), have spotted an unusual series of eruptions in which a series of fast «puffs»
force the slow ejection of a massive burst of plasma
from the Sun's corona.
It has an orbit that takes the object so far away
from the Sun (some 3000 times farther than Earth) that it is likely being influenced by
forces of gravity
from beyond our
Solar System such as other stars and the galactic tide.
One just included the effective influence on temperatures
from manmade
forces (including greenhouse gases and aerosols, which tend to have a cooling effect), while the second included both manmade and natural ones (including volcanic activity and
solar radiation).
The basic comparison should be with the net
forcing (around 1.8 W / m2
from GHG,
solar, aerosols etc.) and the 0.02 W / m2
from thermal pollution.
The hunt for planets beyond the
solar system went up a gear today, as NASA launched its Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)
from Cape Canaveral Air
Force Station atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
The red line shows the effective temperature
forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols (converted to CO2), and the blue line shows the
forcing from both those manmade sources and natural factors, like
solar radiation.
Before this, astronomers were
forced to use much less reliable techniques to estimate the distances of objects more than a few hundred parsecs
from our
solar system.
Results
from climate models driven by estimated radiative
forcings for the 20th century (Chapter 9) suggest that there was little change prior to about 1915, and that a substantial fraction of the early 20th - century change was contributed by naturally occurring influences including
solar radiation changes, volcanism and natural variability.
A spacecraft on a quest to discover Earth - like and potentially habitable worlds in other
solar systems around other stars took to space on April 18, 2018, riding atop a shiny new SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket
from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air
Force Station in Florida.
The spacecraft launched
from Cape Canaveral Air
Force Station, Florida, but needed a gravitational assist
from Mars in 2009 before it journeyed deeper into the
solar system.
The team also had to take into account orbital fluctuations
from other sources, such as sunlight's
force on the vehicle's
solar panels and drag
from Mars» atmosphere.
From 1980 and afterwards, they see a warming associated with
solar forcing, even when basing their calculations on the FL98 data.
Their analysis resulted in AGHG «
forcing» effects on global temperatures 10 times that
from variations in the sun's
solar activity.
From Stott ea.: «We find that climatic processes could act to amplify the near - surface temperature response to (non enhanced)
solar forcing by between 1.34 and 4.21 for LBB [Lean ea.]
(page 4): «The
solar forced run exhibits a larger precipitation response per degree of warming than the CO2
forced run, as expected
from the theory outlined earlier in this section, even though the precipitation response [note: this must be the temperature response] per unit
forcing is smaller than for CO2.»
What one has in the top panel is a plot for the period of the thermometer record — roughly
from 1880 onward — of our best estimates of the known
forcings of greenhouse gasses,
solar output, volcanoes.
Solar Probe Plus is scheduled to launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta 4 - Heavy rocket with an upper stage
from Cape Canaveral Air
Force Station in Florida, with a launch window opening for 20 days starting on July 31, 2018.
Courtillot et al. commit the «flat Earth» error
from which our article draws its name: they give a misleading impression of the comparison of
forcing by
solar variability relative to greenhouse gas
forcing by failing to take into account the Earth's spherical geometry and albedo.
In fact, the
forcing from solar variation is not particularly large.
Important manifestations of such external
forcing from space to the atmosphere are the variations in different
solar parameters such as the
solar irradiance (including
solar UV) and
solar particle fluxes, which can induce changes in the atmosphere both at local and global scales, and can influence over a large range of altitudes.
In addition, tidal
forces affecting the Oort Cloud come
from the differential gravitational
forces exerted by stars in the Milky Way's galactic disk and by the galactic core on the Sun and comets as a result of their relative location in the
Solar System, which have been modelled with numerical simulations (Duncan et al, 1987).
Unless I'm missing something obvious, I don't see how one can extrapolate or estimate current climate sensitivity
from the amount of temperature change to the
solar forcing change that ocurred
from last glaciation to the present interglacial period.
These orbital variations, which can be calculated
from astronomical laws (Berger, 1978),
force climate variations by changing the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of
solar radiation (Chapter 6).
When sunlight
from the Sun hits these
solar panels, the photons exert a small but significant amount of
force (radiation pressure).
Indeed, sometime after the tenuous gas of the
Solar nebula began collapsing into the proto - Sun within its host molecular cloud, a strong magnetic field developed that was instrumental in transporting rotational energy away
from its core region in bi-polar jets of gas so that centrifugal
forces created by the nebula's collapse did not grow so much as to halt continuing gravitational contraction.
Astronomers contend that
solar flares could trigger an online blackout and
force us to answer another striking question, this one catastrophic: Would our overreliant society recover
from the End of the Internet?
Up to four players can combine
forces to defend your
solar system
from the impending alien threat.
The setting shifts
from typical near - future battles to the stars, where you lead a squadron meant to stop the
solar system
from falling under control of nefarious
forces.
One of Eric Fischl's evocative and mysterious
solar etchings, Untitled (2 figures)
from 2006 is included, as well as a surrealist sea - scape
from Leif Hope, the driving
force behind the Game today and the one who conceived the exhibition.
The
forcing from 1900 to mid-century was mostly natural... mostly
solar, a bit of lack - of - volcanic, maybe some black carbon in the arctic.
If I'm correct in saying that the bulk of that increase was up to the late 90s, and * should * have been by the mid-90s or even earlier, then this leaves a tiny bit more room for changes in
solar forcing — since it's only after the
solar max of the early 90s that the trend in
solar activity
from 1940 took a dive http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Temp-sunspot-co2.svg#file.
Maybe someone would like to generate some examples using a basic red - noise process overlaid with a climate signal (for instance
from solar or volcanic
forcing histories) and then compute the auto - correlations?
As normal for such runs, the initial states are taken
from a control run, which in our case has been for 300 years with the same resolution (constant CO2 and constant
solar forcing).
I don't think anyone denies that the sun matters for climate, but the question is whether the variability of the sun in recent history has had the impact that we project
from greenhouse gases over the next 100 — and there, I think, a majority of your «AGW» ers» would think the evidence suggests that changes in human
forcing will likely be several times (at least) larger than any
solar variability we've seen in a thousand years or more.
In other words, the same natural
forcings that appear responsible for the modest large - scale cooling of the LIA should have lead to a cooling trend during the 20th century (some warming during the early 20th century arises
from a modest apparent increase in
solar irradiance at that time, but the increase in explosive volcanism during the late 20th century leads to a net negative 20th century trend in natural radiative
forcing).