Hurricanes derive their power
from warm sea surface temperatures (Emanuel at al., 2005) and the oceans have been warming because of human greenhouse gas emissions (Abraham et al., 2013).
While tropical hurricane intensity is primarily driven by latent heat
from warm sea surface temperatures, an extra-tropical storm is primarily driven by baroclinic processes (differences in the pressure gradient) such as the gradient due to the contrast between the warm Gulf Stream and cold continental air mass.
Unlike hurricanes that are powered by latent heat
from warm sea surfaces, extra-tropical winter storms along the eastern seaboard are primarily powered by the pressure gradient produced by the contrast between the cold continent and warm Gulf Stream.
Conduction downwards
from a warmer sea surface?
More rainfall and runoff
from a warmer sea surface in the eastern Pacific washes more red sediment into the lake.
Not exact matches
Evidence
from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) shows that global
sea levels in the last two decades are rising dramatically as
surface temperatures
warm oceans and...
And a third found that climate - induced
sea -
surface temperature anomalies over the northeast Pacific were driving storms (and moisture) away
from California, but the
warming also caused increased humidity — two competing factors that may produce no net effect.
The future of the currents, whether slowing, stopping or reversing (as was observed during several months measurements), could have a profound effect on regional weather patterns —
from colder winters in Europe to a much
warmer Caribbean (and hence
warmer sea surface temperatures to feed hurricanes).
Analyzing data collected over a 20 - month period, scientists
from NASA's Goddard Space Flight center in Greenbelt, Md., and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the number of cirrus clouds above the Pacific Ocean declines with
warmer sea surface temperatures.
The visualization shows how the 1997 event started
from colder - than - average
sea surface temperatures — but the 2015 event started with
warmer - than - average temperatures not only in the Pacific but also in in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
«Cold, deep water
from this little area of the Nordic
seas, less than 1 % of the global ocean, travels the entire planet and returns as
warm surface water.
Records of
sea surface temperature
from oceanic sediment cores, for example, show that the magnitude of
warming following several previous glaciations are well - correlated (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html).
Complementary analyses of the
surface mass balance of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative loss could raise
sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a total of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm
from glacial ice caps and 9 cm
from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed rate of
sea level rise to the observed
warming.
«During Norwegian winters,
sea surface water is colder than at depth, so by lifting
warmer water to the
surface using bubble curtains, we can prevent the fjords
from icing up», he says.
As the Earth continued to cool
from Years 0.1 to 0.3 billion, a torrential rain fell that turned to steam upon hitting the still hot
surface, then superheated water, and finally collected into hot or
warm seas and oceans above and around cooling crustal rock leaving sediments.
But, according to a new analysis in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by Ben Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne, the 1.5 °C target may be reached or exceeded as early as 2026 if the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shifts
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific
from a cool to a
warm phase.
Methods: In these experiments, the research team conducted large ensembles of simulations with two state - of - the - art atmospheric general circulation models by abruptly switching the
sea -
surface temperature
warming on
from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation adjustment.
A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging
from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for
surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean
sea level, and
surface ocean acidification.
Any way you look it,
from the Climate Prediction Center Outlook through May, to the ongoing
warm anomalies in land and
sea surface temperatures, much of the United States is likely to find above average temperatures in the coming months.
Even during the region's
warmest months,
sea surface temperatures can range
from 80 down to below 70 degrees, and winter may bring chilly waters in the mid 60s, and occasionally as low as 58 degrees.
The first is to emphasize your point that degassing of CO2
from the oceans is not simply a matter of
warmer water reducing CO2 solubility, and that important additional factors include changes in wind patterns, reduction in
sea ice cover to reveal a larger
surface for gas escape, and upwelling of CO2
from depths consequent to the changing climate patterns.
If you download 1998 - 2009 cloud cover here, and
sea surface temperatures here, you can see that, except for a cloud band
from ~ 0 to 10 degrees N, cloudiness is generally less where SST is
warmer, though there are lots of details and spatial variation that lessen the correlation.
The scariest parts of the Siberian margin are the shallow parts, because this is where methane bubbles
from the
sea floor might reach the
surface, and this is where the
warming trend is observed most strongly.
We do not know what the MOC has actually been doing for lack of data, so the authors diagnose the state of the MOC
from the
sea surface temperatures — to put it simply: a
warm northern Atlantic suggests strong MOC, a cool one suggests weak MOC (though it is of course a little more complex).
Other factors would include: — albedo shifts (both
from ice > water, and
from increased biological activity, and
from edge melt revealing more land, and
from more old dust coming to the
surface...); — direct effect of CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly
warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more
warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of
sea ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; —
sea water getting under parts of the ice sheets where the base is below
sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
These results suggest that
sea surface temperature pattern - induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced
warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated
from recently observed trends are probably biased low 4.
Normally, a hurricane sucks up cold water
from deeper layers, cooling the
sea surface and weakening the hurricane, but in the case of deep
warm water layers, the hurricane intensifies because it is sucking up
warm water.
The
sea surface temperatures along the coast are 5 degrees F. or more above average and 1 degree F. is
from global
warming.
Also, if you look at Table T2 in this paper, you will see that ocean
sea surface heat storage 0 - 700m
from 1955 - 2003 (in W / m2) is always higher at northern latitudes than the corresponding southern latitudes in every case, even with the extensive Southern Ocean
warming as noted by Gavin responding to # 18.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside
from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat
from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
However, to support the assertion that global
warming is responsible for a great deal of damage
from such events, it is sufficient to show that such events have the «signature» of global
warming — for example, that specific global
warming - related factors such as abnormally high
sea surface temperatures, elevated water vapor levels, and altered jet stream patterns contributed to making Hurricane Sandy what it was — even if those factors can not be precisely quantified.
Suggested mechanisms range
from upwelling of
warm deep waters onto the continental shelf in response to variations in the westerly winds, to an influence of El Niño — Southern Oscillation on
sea surface temperatures.
The National Climatic Data Center has released its review of worldwide
sea surface temperatures for August and for the stretch
from June through August and finds that both the month and the «summer» (as looked at
from the Northern Hemisphere) were the
warmest at least since 1880, when such records were first systematically compiled.
Thus, if the (cooler) air above
warms by two degrees and the (
warmer)
sea surface warms by only one, then the differential in your scenario drops
from 15 to 14, decreasing the strength of the hurricane.
I also suspect that a good portion of the additional
warming shown in the hybrid version of the Cowtan and Way (2013) data (versus their Krig data) comes
from the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, where
sea surface temperatures are cooling and lower troposphere temperatures are
warming.
Most interesting is that the about monthly variations correlate with the lunar phases (peak on full moon) The Helsinki Background measurements 1935 The first background measurements in history; sampling data in vertical profile every 50 - 100m up to 1,5 km; 364 ppm underthe clouds and above Haldane measurements at the Scottish coast 370 ppmCO2 in winds
from the
sea; 355 ppm in air from the land Wattenberg measurements in the southern Atlantic ocean 1925-1927 310 sampling stations along the latitudes of the southern Atlantic oceans and parts of the northern; measuring all oceanographic data and CO2 in air over the sea; high ocean outgassing crossing the warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly aver
sea; 355 ppm in air
from the land Wattenberg measurements in the southern Atlantic ocean 1925-1927 310 sampling stations along the latitudes of the southern Atlantic oceans and parts of the northern; measuring all oceanographic data and CO2 in air over the
sea; high ocean outgassing crossing the warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly aver
sea; high ocean outgassing crossing the
warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over
sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly aver
sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents
Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly aver
Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over
sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly aver
sea crossing the Atlantic
from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer
from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly average
So if you say «snow cover in 49 states is due to more moisture in the air
from global
warming» — then you have absolutely no idea WTF you are talking about.The air is not
warm, and
Sea Surface Temperatures are also running well below normal.
------------------------------------ And here's what the proxies vs. the highly adjusted instrumental data that have been hopelessly corrupted by removing thousands of rural stations and keeping urban stations, moving rural sites to airports, «mostly made up» SH
sea surface temperatures, cooling down the 1930s and 1940s artificially to remove 0.5 C
from the early 20th century
warming... look like.
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
Surface warming / ocean
warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends
from global reanalyses and monthly
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in
sea surface temperature trends
surface temperature trends»
The
sea ice in the Siberian Arctic is peaking, its effect on the meridional temperature gradient strong, promoting increased zonal flow of large - scale winds, which advect
warm air and moisture over the Eurasian continent
from the Atlantic and disrupt vertical stratification near the
surface and promote high cloudiness, both of which lead to increasing temperatures — greatest at low altitudes and high latitudes.
Combine the satellite trend with the
surface observations and the umpteen non-temperature based records that reflect temperature change (
from glaciers to phenology to lake freeze dates to snow - cover extent in spring & fall to
sea level rise to stratospheric temps) and the evidence for recent gradual
warming is, well, unequivocal.
El Ni o an irregular variation of ocean current that,
from January to February, flows off the west coast of South America, carrying
warm, low - salinity, nutrient - poor water to the south; does not usually extend farther than a few degrees south of the Equator, but occasionally it does penetrate beyond 12 S, displacing the relatively cold Peruvian current; usually short - lived effects, but sometimes last more than a year, raising
sea -
surface temperatures along the coast of Peru and in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, having disastrous effects on marine life and fishing
Surface warming from natural and anthropogenic factors may increase or decrease the rate of
sea level rising, but only slightly.
This satellite image of Pacific Ocean
sea surface heights taken by the NASA / European Ocean Surface Topography Mission / Jason -2 oceanography satellite, captured on June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched from warm (red) to cold (blue) during the last few months, perhaps foreshadowing a transition from El Niño, to La Niña cond
surface heights taken by the NASA / European Ocean
Surface Topography Mission / Jason -2 oceanography satellite, captured on June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched from warm (red) to cold (blue) during the last few months, perhaps foreshadowing a transition from El Niño, to La Niña cond
Surface Topography Mission / Jason -2 oceanography satellite, captured on June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched
from warm (red) to cold (blue) during the last few months, perhaps foreshadowing a transition
from El Niño, to La Niña conditions.
Loss of
sea ice means more heat
from the sun is absorbed by the ocean
surface, adding to Arctic
warming.
From lack of Tropical Tropospheric
warming to unrealistic CO2 residence times to cooling
Sea Surface Temperatures to exaggerated sea level rise, etc... The AGW hypothesis is a me
Sea Surface Temperatures to exaggerated
sea level rise, etc... The AGW hypothesis is a me
sea level rise, etc... The AGW hypothesis is a mess.
The latest image of Pacific Ocean
sea surface heights from the NASA / European Ocean Surface Topography Mission / Jason -2 oceanography satellite, dated June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched from warm to cold during the last few
surface heights
from the NASA / European Ocean
Surface Topography Mission / Jason -2 oceanography satellite, dated June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched from warm to cold during the last few
Surface Topography Mission / Jason -2 oceanography satellite, dated June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched
from warm to cold during the last few months.
The particularly rapid
sea ice loss
from 1997 to 2007 was related to extreme ocean conditions that drove a sustained
warming of the
surface waters throughout the subpolar Atlantic and Nordic
Seas.
''... worked with two sediment cores they extracted
from the seabed of the eastern Norwegian
Sea, developing a 1000 - year proxy temperature record «based on measurements of δ18O in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a planktonic foraminifer that calcifies at relatively shallow depths within the Atlantic waters of the eastern Norwegian
Sea during late summer,» which they compared with the temporal histories of various proxies of concomitant solar activity... This work revealed, as the seven scientists describe it, that «the lowest isotope values (highest temperatures) of the last millennium are seen ~ 1100 - 1300 A.D., during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and again after ~ 1950 A.D.» In between these two
warm intervals, of course, were the colder temperatures of the Little Ice Age, when oscillatory thermal minima occurred at the times of the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf solar minima, such that the δ18O proxy record of near -
surface water temperature was found to be «robustly and near - synchronously correlated with various proxies of solar variability spanning the last millennium,» with decade - to century - scale temperature variability of 1 to 2 °C magnitude.»
This study differs
from earlier research into possible links between hurricanes and
warmer sea surface temperatures by looking as well at the effect of
warmer air.