Sentences with phrase «full model ensemble»

Likewise, to properly represent internal climate variability, the full model ensemble spread must be used in a comparison against the observations (e.g., Box 9.2; Section 11.2.3.2; Raftery et al. (2005); Wilks (2006); Jolliffe and Stephenson (2011)-RRB-.

Likewise, to properly represent internal variability, the full model ensemble spread must be used in a comparison against the observations, as is well known from ensemble weather forecasting (e.g., Raftery et al., 2005).

Not exact matches

Full - complexity Earth system models (ESMs) produce spatial and temporal detail, but an ensemble of ESMs are computationally costly and do not generate probability distributions; instead, they yield ranges of different modeling groups» semi-independent «best estimates» of climate responses.

He claims that this can be corrected for, but he still isn't using the proper null — in M&N they show the results from the ensemble means (of the GISS model and the full AR4 model set), but seem to be completely ignorant of the fact that ensemble mean results remove the spatial variations associated with internal variability which should be the exact thing you would use!

I would really like some clarity as to how the ensemble of model runs are whittled down into a narrower subset without comprimising the ability of the model to «span the full range» of «weather noise».

The dark blue shading represents the envelope of the full set of 35 SRES scenarios using the simple model ensemble mean results.

but this is the full CMIP3 ensemble, so at least the plot is sampling the range of choices regarding if and how indirect effects are represented, what the cloud radiative feedback & sensitivity is, etc. across the modelling community.

In his talk, «Statistical Emulation of Streamflow Projections: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Change Projections,» PCIC Lead of Hydrological Impacts, Markus Schnorbus, explored whether the streamflow projections based on a 23 - member hydrological ensemble are representative of the full range of uncertainty in streamflow projections from all of the models from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 2006 - 2012 by RCP4.5 simulations, Section 9.3.2) reveals that 111 out of 114 realisations show a GMST trend over 1998 - 2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble... During the 15 - year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model - simulated trends whereas during the 15 - year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends.

Studies have shown that prolonged gazing at a spaghetti graph of climate model ensembles reduces visual acuity by 38 % and lowers the I.Q. by 42 full points.

I agree with you about the lower bound, it seems particularly unreasonable for them to criticise the lower end of the IPCC range, especially as the rather small IPCC ensemble includes models with a lower forecast than their full range, which also satisfy their statistical criterion.

They use a group of climate models — characterized as «an ensemble of opportunity» in AR4 — that don't reflect the full range of uncertainty in our knowledge of climate sensitivity.

Unfortunately, much of the discussion has been based on graphics, energy - balance models and descriptions of what the forced component is, rather than the full ensemble from the coupled models.