I am probably as aware of any reader here of modeling challenges in general, and can appreciate the work your groups have performed, but I can also appreciate the implications of the mismatch that prompted your post: there is
fundamental uncertainty in the interaction of the complex mechanisms that drive climate change, including the human effect.
However, as seen in Chart 10, there is some evidence of lower heterogeneity among forecasters in the Blue Chip survey compared with the Survey of Professional Forecasters, especially in recent periods, which, in retrospect, were periods of high
fundamental uncertainty in the economy.
The Institute also announced that it has scheduled an ongoing attack on the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, promising a «Fraser Institute Supplementary Analysis Series» on topics such as «
Fundamental Uncertainties in Climate Modelling.»
Not exact matches
Of course, there is no shortage of
fundamental issues to worry about: another downgrade to the outlook for global growth,
uncertainty about the economic transition
in China, the pace of normalization
in the United States, worries about Europe, worries about Japan, just to cite a few.
The best way,
in my opinion, to handle this
uncertainty is to practice solid,
fundamental investing principles.
You know that we believe
in the
fundamental resilience of the U.S. and world economy, and the markets that reflect them, even
in the face of policy
uncertainty.
Differences
in judgment and the
fundamental uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook should mean occasional differences
in view.
Nonetheless, geopolitical risk does not disappear, nor do global linkages (note the strong pull of Chinese data and market moves of late, or the
uncertainty surrounding US elections
in November), so
fundamentals may have to strengthen much more before the BOJ takes further easing off the table.
This is important news from a bitcoin
fundamentals standpoint as it can be viewed as a big step forward
in settling the block size debate and eliminating the lingering
uncertainty around bitcoin's future.
Leslie Appleton - Young, Chief Economist for C.A.R., said as much
in the aforementioned press release: «The underlying
fundamentals continue to support overall home sales growth [
in California], but headwinds, such as global economic
uncertainty and deteriorating housing affordability, will temper stronger sales activity.»
The ethical and emotional crises that we experience today
in relation to the thresholds of birth and death, the
uncertainty as to where «personal» value may be located and anchored, and the resultant confusion
in the realm of public policy and law are symptoms of the
fundamental intellectual crisis of modern humanity.
But our questions are nevertheless signals of our
fundamental uncertainty and our longing for a clearer vision of the reality
in which we dwell, it is important therefore that we first bring our questions and
uncertainties out into the open.
But, one need look no further than the current debate
in the UK over the EU referendum to find other parallels with Repeal — e.g., an internal split
in the Conservative party over British identity (particularly
in a world with increasing trade linkages); the difficulty
in ascertaining the winners and losers from a
fundamental reorientation of trade policy, amidst inherent
uncertainty; the existence of tensions between different sectors and regions, stemming from trade exposure; and so on.
Due to this
uncertainty, many
fundamental questions remain, not only about why the culture disappeared, but also precisely when these events occurred and how this civilization developed
in the first place.
The latest finding builds on work published
in 2008 by Vinokur and his associates that experimentally established the existence of the superinsulating state, while also proposing that it «mirrors» the behavior that occurs
in the superconducting state, deriving it from the most
fundamental quantum concept, the
uncertainty principle.
The practice of science, which includes the packaging of findings from science for use
in the public - policy arena, is governed by an unwritten code of conduct that includes such elements as mastering the relevant
fundamental concepts before venturing into print
in the professional or public arena, learning and observing proper practices for presenting ranges of respectable opinion and
uncertainty, avoiding the selection of data to fit pre-conceived conclusions, reading the references one cites and representing their content accurately and fairly, and acknowledging and correcting the errors that have crept into ones work (some of which are, of course, inevitable) after they are discovered by oneself or by others.
The results include new asteroseismic solutions for four host stars with confirmed planets (Kepler - 4, Kepler - 14, Kepler - 23 and Kepler - 25) and increase the total number of Kepler host stars with asteroseismic solutions... ▽ More We have used asteroseismology to determine
fundamental properties for 66 Kepler planet - candidate host stars, with typical
uncertainties of 3 % and 7 %
in radius and mass, respectively.
Abstract: We have used asteroseismology to determine
fundamental properties for 66 Kepler planet - candidate host stars, with typical
uncertainties of 3 % and 7 %
in radius and mass, respectively.
This body of work plays with the idea of art as an ongoing conversation with posterity
in which artifacts of the past are painted over, yet traces of the original art remain — and using the cave - dweller as a metaphor for the
fundamental human condition: forever shrouded
in darkness and
uncertainty, yet determined to leave our own visions upon the walls of the cave.
Look, the GCMs are complicated, and yes there are
uncertainties, but the
fundamental reality, the 800 pound gorilla
in the room is the fact that CO2 traps outgoing infrared radiation.
I think that Joe Public would be quite shocked that there is still so much apparent
uncertainty in such a
fundamental aspect of climate science, given the huge disruption already being caused by what may turn out to be premature attempts at mitigation.
The notion to act
in a way that avoids harm, or at least minimizes risk as much as possible, when faced with risk and
uncertainty has been around a long time and is rather
fundamental to many of our normal human patterns.
Unfortunately, there are many factors that preclude an effective bound on the risks — ranging from
uncertainties in downscaling to more
fundamental issues such as the
uncertainty of climate sensitivity.
«Thorne et al. ended with the conclusion that «there is no reasonable evidence of a
fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when
uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively».»
I note that any reasonable climate change class should highlight appropriate sources of
uncertainties (e.g.,
in future projections of hurricane changes, cloud feedbacks, etc) and I prefer when they open up discussing to students, but I find that Judith carries this further into making up
uncertainties based on her gut feeling, interpreting them
in ways that make little sense, and most importantly, failing to recognize the errors
in flawed sets of reasoning on
fundamental topics.
In the face of such
fundamental uncertainties, two cardinal rules should govern any sane response to the climate crisis.
There is
fundamental uncertainty even
in such widely a accepted verity as the theory of evolution.
How Thorne et al could credibly claim that there is no reasonable evidence of a
fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when
uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively is mind - boggling.
In spite of these very fundamental uncertainties, the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, insists on lowering emissions in the hope of reaching stabilization at some level, preferably one that is not too hig
In spite of these very
fundamental uncertainties, the Kyoto Protocol, adopted
in 1997, insists on lowering emissions in the hope of reaching stabilization at some level, preferably one that is not too hig
in 1997, insists on lowering emissions
in the hope of reaching stabilization at some level, preferably one that is not too hig
in the hope of reaching stabilization at some level, preferably one that is not too high.
These issues are the
fundamental basis for
uncertainty in science.
This Guide establishes general rules for evaluating and expressing
uncertainty in measurement that can be followed at various levels of accuracy and
in many fields — from the shop floor to
fundamental research.
The
fundamental problem is that policymakers don't want to hear about dissent and
uncertainty — they must either be
in favor of something or against it, and gray areas don't help.
Johnston says he was surprised to discover that «on virtually every major issue
in climate change science» IPCC reports «systematically conceal or minimize what appear to be
fundamental scientific
uncertainties.»
The
fundamental property which determines the
uncertainty in a trend is therefore the level of noise
in the data.
...
In a recently published book titled Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming, the technically qualified authors (scientists all) point to four reasons: a conflict among scientists in different disciplines; fundamental scientific uncertainties concerning how the global climate responds to the human presence; failure of the UN's IPCC to provide objective guidance to the complex science; and bias among researchers.&raqu
In a recently published book titled Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming, the technically qualified authors (scientists all) point to four reasons: a conflict among scientists
in different disciplines; fundamental scientific uncertainties concerning how the global climate responds to the human presence; failure of the UN's IPCC to provide objective guidance to the complex science; and bias among researchers.&raqu
in different disciplines;
fundamental scientific
uncertainties concerning how the global climate responds to the human presence; failure of the UN's IPCC to provide objective guidance to the complex science; and bias among researchers.»
«Finally, Lorenz's theory of the atmosphere (and ocean) as a chaotic system raises
fundamental, but unanswered questions about how much the
uncertainties in climate - change projections can be reduced.
Independent of physics, logic, data
uncertainties, and such, it is profoundly disturbing to see how often even simple statistical
fundamentals are misused or possibly deliberately abused
in «climate science».
These
uncertainties make it difficult to determine whether models still have common,
fundamental errors
in their representation of the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature change.
This means that the inherent
uncertainty in weather predictions are
fundamental also for climate.
Viewing the statistical analysis from a more
fundamental level will help to clarify some of the methodologies used
in surface temperature reconstruction and highlight the different types of
uncertainties associated with these various methods.
It is, however, a measure of their
fundamental lack of seriousness that when there really are important
uncertainties (i.e. the likelihood that climate sensitivity is higher than generally thought), they ignore them
in favour of making the same repetitive uninteresting and incorrect claims they always make.
A review of the peer - edited literature reveals a systematic tendency of the climate establishment to engage
in a variety of stylized rhetorical techniques that seem to oversell what is actually known about climate change while concealing
fundamental uncertainties and open questions regarding many of the key process involved
in climate change.
If
fundamental terminology within a certain subject area is incoherent, legal
uncertainty ensues,
in particular as regards elementary questions such as digital exhaustion and digital lending.
Brought to you by the Real Law Editorial Team The
uncertainty principle is a
fundamental concept
in quantum physics.
They looked at the way
in which people make decisions under conditions of
uncertainty and found that their behavior violated expected utility theory — a
fundamental assumption of economic theory that holds that decision - makers reason instrumentally about how to maximize their gains.
This
uncertainty, coupled with a glut of oil supply
in global markets, has kept energy industry - dependent office markets such as Houston on the sidelines during the current surge
in nationwide office
fundamentals, Rutherford says.
«The negative rating reflects the
uncertainty surrounding the impact of the deteriorating
fundamentals of the Class - A multifamily property market on the REIT's operating performance and credit profile
in 2002.»
Leslie Appleton - Young, Chief Economist for C.A.R., said as much
in the aforementioned press release: «The underlying
fundamentals continue to support overall home sales growth [
in California], but headwinds, such as global economic
uncertainty and deteriorating housing affordability, will temper stronger sales activity.»
In South America, Mexico City has become the unlikely leader in growth due to recently adopted business - friendly legislation and improved economic conditions, while Brazil has seen a slowdown in office fundamentals, along with a weakening economy and political uncertaint
In South America, Mexico City has become the unlikely leader
in growth due to recently adopted business - friendly legislation and improved economic conditions, while Brazil has seen a slowdown in office fundamentals, along with a weakening economy and political uncertaint
in growth due to recently adopted business - friendly legislation and improved economic conditions, while Brazil has seen a slowdown
in office fundamentals, along with a weakening economy and political uncertaint
in office
fundamentals, along with a weakening economy and political
uncertainty.
«While domestic buyers may be inclined to be more cautious
in times of economic
uncertainty, the truth of the matter is the
fundamentals remain the same.