No, he believed that holding a short ETF would help protect his portfolio if we are hit by
further bear market declines.
Not exact matches
We can't rule out a quarter of positive GDP growth, as we saw in early 1974 (followed by a
further decline and
bear market plunge), but we can't see any basis on which to expect sustained and robust GDP growth yet, and certainly not robust earnings growth.
So
far, we're well - short of a
bear market, which is defined as a 20 %
decline from the 52 - week high.
Even if next year turns out to deliver a
further bull
market gain of 20 %, followed only then by a minimal 20 %
bear market decline, the return since late - 2002 would still be limited to 9 % annually.
Finally, if AIG had defaulted, Goldman Sachs would have been forced to
bear the risk of
further declines in the
market value of the approximately $ 4.3 billion in CDOs that it transferred to the Maiden Lane III portfolio as well as approximately $ 5.5 billion for its credit default swaps that were not part of the Maiden Lane III portfolio; Maiden Lane III removed any risk for the $ 4.3 billion within that portfolio, and continued Government backing of AIG provided Goldman Sachs with ongoing protection against an AIG default on the remaining $ 5.5 billion.
The
decline during the current
bear market thus
far is still well short of the average loss for prior
bears.
(And later they don't want to increase their stock holdings in a
bear market because they don't want to risk
further declines.)
So of course even with a balanced or conservative portfolio they will
decline during
bear markets, but as you can see the
declines are
far less severe than an all equity investor.
For the 50/50 and 40/60 portfolios they were back at even quicker at 9 and 6 months, respectively, since they
declined far less during the
bear market.
A 30 % - plus
decline to the 1950 - 2000 level for the S&P 500 would be
far more consistent with
bear market behavior.
In many cities hard hit by the economic downturn, foreign -
born buyers are finding value and preventing
further market declines.