From 1998 onward De Bilt shows
no further temp increase.
Not exact matches
As I understand this article, the decrease in
temp gradient in the cool skin layer is what allows
increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations to
further warm the oceans.
Increasing temps cause greater hurricane intensity, then
further increases decrease that intensity (maybe due to wind shear), then??
There are many studies (iec cores are the best so
far) that show CO2
increases lag behind
temp increases.
Bob; I'm glad you linked to McIntyre's discussion of the «Bucket» case; this has always intriqued me because the AGW crew have been furious with the 40's dip in
temp as it contradicts the effect of the linear
increase in CO2 and its monotonic connotations for
temp; to overcome the mid-century decline the global dimming hilarity was espoused; the Bucket case added a
further dimension of hilarity to this because if the
temps actually hadn't dropped as per the Bucket case then global dimming was rubbish; such is the illogic of the orthodoxy.
The expected
increase in
temp in a BAU scenario will likely go
far outside of the bound of variability that we have seen over the past 10,000 years
In a CO2 - rich system, I would expect a biasing of «natural» variation, such that long periods without an
increase in
temps would be
far fewer would become shorter, or would disappear.
The problem with that 6C assumption is that the
temp increase to date from pre-industrial levels is consistent with a
far lower number than that.
According to the author, and his model, this second shell would cause a
further increase in
temp.
Not to mention, why do skeptics continue to ignore, dismiss, or simply «argue with» by any means possible, the
far more important fact that most of the
increased absorbed heat energy is going into warming the oceans, not the atmosphere (thus keeping the ambient air
temp rise from registering as high as it otherwise would, and impacting FUTURE climate
far more).
It would be really great to stop the
increase of CO2 in the atmosphere for a decade and let the
temps catch up, but there is no sign of that happening so
far, instead we keep measuring
increases in CO2 sats in the atmosphere.
Further, as stated many times by others, CO2 sensitivity is log, thus, we will have to reach 1000 ppm to
increase the
temp by 2C, and even there, the probability of the actual
temp metric reaching that point is, IMO, very low, because nature does have feedbacks.