At the same time, they point towards below normal ice extent in the Barents / Kara Sea, also compared to the record minimum in 2007, which they see coupled to oceanic processes and promoting
further warming of surface waters in the region.
The net result is
further warming of the surface, which in turn induces additional heating of the atmosphere column above.
Absorption of thermal radiation cools the thermal spectra of the earth as seen from space, radiation emitted by de-excitation is what results in
the further warming of the surface, and the surface continues to warm until the rate at which energy is radiated from the earth's climate system (given the increased opacity of the atmosphere to longwave radiation) is equal to the rate at which energy enters it.
Not exact matches
Their results suggest a drop
of as much as 10 degrees for fresh water during the
warm season and 6 degrees for the atmosphere in the North Atlantic, giving
further evidence that the concentration
of atmospheric carbon dioxide and Earth's
surface temperature are inextricably linked.
A
warm bias in sea
surface temperature in most global climate models is due to a misrepresentation
of the coastal separation position
of the Gulf Stream, which extends too
far north
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Once again,
surface warming variability diminishes even
further in the late 20th century simulations, and once again these late 20th century simulations are much closer to the observed trends
of sea
surface warming, than the control and early 20th century simulations.
South
of Spitzbergen, the oceans have been ice free the past 2 winters, reason being, the
warm waters from the Gulf Stream are travelling
further north, and closer to the ocean
surface, only 25 meters at the last measurement, The ocean temperature has been +2 C instead
of -2 C.
The country's vibrant colors and life are affectionately captured by director
of photography Seamus McGarvey (whose stunning cinematography alone makes the film worthy
of a cinema release), with the work
of production designer Johnny Breedt and art director Vivienne Gray
further giving the place and community a character and pulse
of its own:
warm and inviting, often funny and friendly, but also not without real danger lurking on the fringes and beneath the
surface.
If a larger mass
of warm air has to pass through it, more energy is transferred, through the evaporator's fins (so that even the evaporator's design and, in particular, its exchange
surface play an important part) from the air to the liquid refrigerant allowed inside it by the TEV or orifice tube so it expands more and, along with the absolute pressure inside the evaporator, the refrigerant's vapor superheat (the delta between the boiling point
of the fluid at a certain absolute pressure and the temperature
of the vapour) increases, since after expanding into saturated vapour, it has enough time to catch enough heat to
warm up
further by vaporizing the remaining liquid (an important property
of a superheated vapour is that no fluid in the liquid state is carried around by the vapour, unlike with saturated vapour).
In this case, low - key violets and greens along the edges set up an expectation
of deep space in the center, exactly where an incandescent swath
of yellow — by
far the
warm ¬ est, most saturated area — thrusts to the
surface, asserting color, light and flatness as dominant concerns.
Matte and glossy blacks appear in wide strokes and in fine, delicate lines across crisp whites,
warm yellows, and cool blues, creating a complex web
of layers that seem to reach
further and
further beyond the
surface field.
Further, by global
warming I refer explicitly to the historical record
of global average
surface temperatures.
Other factors would include: — albedo shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the
surface...); — direct effect
of CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly
warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more
warm tropical air ever
further toward the poles; — melting
of sea ice shelf increasing mobility
of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts
of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
Personally I got convinced that
warming was underway in the late 1990s after borehole measurements in rocks around the world,
far away from civilization, showed unmistakable evidence
of warming over the past century... if you log temperature down the hole, you find that extra heat has been seeping down from the
surface.
2) The committed
warming: effectively the greenhouse gas increase from pre-industrial to now has committed the planet to a
surface warming of 2.4 °C (using IPCCs central value for climate sensitivity), and only about 0.6 °C
of this has been realized thus
far.
The current energy imbalance at the
surface (as demonstrated by the increasing heat content
of the oceans) implies there is at least a
further 0.5 deg C
surface warming in the «pipeline».
Then to go a bit
further it would be even more useful if we could examine how the GHG
warming was eliciting the
warming of the
surface temperature.
I also agree that model predictions
of 0.2 C
surface warming per decade were clearly inaccurate, but on the larger question
of climate trends, they were probably not very
far off.
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so
far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect
of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Camp and Tung explore the ramifications
further in a follow - up paper Solar - Cycle
Warming at the Earth's
Surface and an Observational Determination
of Climate Sensitivity.
I can see how the anomalous westerlies and high
surface pressure could contribute to
warmer SSTs north
of 20N in the Atlantic during El nino episodes, but to say it weakens the trade winds in the tropical belt is incorrect, most especially during the summer months when the Azores - Bermuda High is
farther north.
European researchers, under the Copernicus Climate Service, using a slightly different method
of analysing the
surface temperature data than Nasa, also found that February 2016 was by
far the
warmest month on record.
Tamino at the Open Mind blog has also compared the rates
of warming projected by the
FAR, SAR, and TAR (estimated by linear regression) to the observed rate
of warming in each global
surface temperature dataset.
As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC
FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount
of global
surface warming in response to a doubling
of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) correspoding to 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high).
Since CET is about.01 % the area
of the Earth, with a
far higher level
of technology during 1600 - 1800 than over 95 %
of the rest
of Earth's
surface, it should not be surprising that such a tiny region so dense with technology would see global
warming in the 17th century.
El Ni o an irregular variation
of ocean current that, from January to February, flows off the west coast
of South America, carrying
warm, low - salinity, nutrient - poor water to the south; does not usually extend
farther than a few degrees south
of the Equator, but occasionally it does penetrate beyond 12 S, displacing the relatively cold Peruvian current; usually short - lived effects, but sometimes last more than a year, raising sea -
surface temperatures along the coast
of Peru and in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, having disastrous effects on marine life and fishing
The colored shading shows the projected range
of surface warming in the IPCC First Assessment Report (
FAR; yellow), Second (SAR; green), Third (TAR; blue), and Fourth (AR4; red).
There has been an overall
warming of surface waters (in the Bellingshausen and Scotia seas) by ∼ 1 °C in the last 50 years, but so
far there is no evidence
of any biologically meaningful temperature change in waters below about 100 m deep.
Further, they found that the divergence between
surface and lower - tropospheric measurements, which has probably continued, is consistent with evidence
of a
warm bias in the
surface temperature record.
As
far as I can see, it has been a common knowledge that average
surface temperature is in not an ideal parameter to describe
warming of the earth.
C.
warmer than it was with respect to the start
of the industrial revolution, I believe that it would be necessary to use actual average global land - ocean
surface temperature data (which would be imperfectly known that
far back).
But there is a
further argument that there are other indications
of warming other than the
surface temperature record and these have continued to show that the earth is
warming.
«Below the sea
surface, historical measurements
of temperature are
far sparser, and the
warming is more gradual, about 0.01 °C per decade at 1,000 meters.»
If polar vortices are driven
further and
further south, drawing up
warmer air from middle latitudes toward the pole and supplanting them with Arctic chill, then many nations might experience cooling, while the generally unmonitored Arctic Circle region experiences substantial restructuring
of sea ice as well as
surface warming and deep ocean
warming too.
In short, as
far as Jones knew in February 2010 - and as the keeper
of the Hadley - CRU
surface temperature record he was surely in a very good position to know - the planet hadn't
warmed on average over the decade.
The first three months
of the year were characterized by
warmer - than - average conditions across much
of the world's
surface, with record warmth across New Zealand and its surrounding ocean, and scattered across
Far East Russia, southern Asia, southern Australia, and across all oceans.
Then there are
further complications when incident solar radiation causes some
warming, and evaporation and radiation «springboard» some
of the energy from the
surface to somewhat higher altitudes.
The «unnatural»
warming so
far seen is however trended strongly to the alterations to the planetary
surface by Humanity over the past 400 years and the rebalance towards greater kinetic induction (in its cumulative effect) is now producing observable alterations not only to the Land Surface median Temperature, but to the Ocean (vie conduction / convection) and a still unconfirmed claim of a small overall rise in Median Atmospheric Temperature, which if «true» would place the Planetary Biosphere on the «Human Population Plot» with regard to «warming&
surface by Humanity over the past 400 years and the rebalance towards greater kinetic induction (in its cumulative effect) is now producing observable alterations not only to the Land
Surface median Temperature, but to the Ocean (vie conduction / convection) and a still unconfirmed claim of a small overall rise in Median Atmospheric Temperature, which if «true» would place the Planetary Biosphere on the «Human Population Plot» with regard to «warming&
Surface median Temperature, but to the Ocean (vie conduction / convection) and a still unconfirmed claim
of a small overall rise in Median Atmospheric Temperature, which if «true» would place the Planetary Biosphere on the «Human Population Plot» with regard to «
warming».
The best way to envision the relation between ENSO and precipitation over East Africa is to regard the Indian Ocean as a mirror
of the Pacific Ocean sea
surface temperature anomalies [much like the Western Hemisphere
Warm Pool creates such a SST mirror with the Atlantic Ocean too]: during a La Niña episode, waters in the eastern Pacific are relatively cool as strong trade winds blow the tropically Sun -
warmed waters
far towards the west.
The pattern
of temperature change through the layers
of the atmosphere, with
warming near the
surface and cooling higher up in the stratosphere,
further confirms that it is the buildup
of heat - trapping gases (also known as «greenhouse gases») that has caused most
of the Earth's
warming over the past half century.
He had already been warned on this thread that when I had earlier answered a legitimate question from a commenter
far more polite and sensible than he, I had replied with a straightforward account
of how Professor Lindzen, in a talk that he had given under my chairmanship at the Houses
of Parliament, had calculated that if the increase in evaporation from the Earth's
surface with
warming was thrice that which the models predicted then climate sensitivity was one - third
of that which the models predicted.
With a heat capacity for the total atmosphere equal to ~ 3 meter
of water and an average temperature
far below the average
surface temperature there is no way you can
warm Earth's
surface and oceans from the atmosphere.
Thawing permafrost also delivers organic - rich soils to lake bottoms, where decomposition in the absence
of oxygen releases additional methane.116 Extensive wildfires also release carbon that contributes to climate
warming.107, 117,118 The capacity
of the Yukon River Basin in Alaska and adjacent Canada to store carbon has been substantially weakened since the 1960s by the combination
of warming and thawing
of permafrost and by increased wildfire.119 Expansion
of tall shrubs and trees into tundra makes the
surface darker and rougher, increasing absorption
of the sun's energy and
further contributing to
warming.120 This
warming is likely stronger than the potential cooling effects
of increased carbon dioxide uptake associated with tree and shrub expansion.121 The shorter snow - covered seasons in Alaska
further increase energy absorption by the land
surface, an effect only slightly offset by the reduced energy absorption
of highly reflective post-fire snow - covered landscapes.121 This spectrum
of changes in Alaskan and other high - latitude terrestrial ecosystems jeopardizes efforts by society to use ecosystem carbon management to offset fossil fuel emissions.94, 95,96
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set
of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will
warm the Earth's
surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production
of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate
of rise
of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates
of change
of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate
of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use
of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity
of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue
further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
In short, contrary to Lindzen's claims, the amount
of surface warming thus
far (0.8 °C) is consistent with what we «should have seen» based on the IPCC numbers.
That lack
of immediate concern may in part stem from a lack
of understanding that today's pollution will heat the planet for centuries to come, as explained in this Denial101x lecture: So
far humans have caused about 1 °C
warming of global
surface temperatures, but if we were to freeze the level
of atmospheric carbon dioxide at today's levels, the planet would continue
warming.
The IPCC
FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount
of global
surface warming in response to a doubling
of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks)
of 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high) for doubled CO2 (Figure 1).
To summarise the arguments presented so
far concerning ice - loss in the arctic basin, at least four mechanisms must be recognised: (i) a momentum - induced slowing
of winter ice formation, (ii) upward heat - flux from anomalously
warm Atlantic water through the
surface low ‐ salinity layer below the ice, (iii) wind patterns that cause the export
of anomalous amounts
of drift ice through the Fram Straits and disperse pack - ice in the western basin and (iv) the anomalous flux
of warm Bering Sea water into the eastern Arctic
of the mid 1990s.
An appropriate title, when discussing the the Keenlyside et al. (2008) paper (not Dr. Latif's speech at the WCC3), would be «Global
surface temperature may not increase over the next decade», and then to clarify that internal climate modes may temporarily halt
further global
warming because
of regional cooling over portions
of N. America, N. Atlantic and Europe, and caution that decadal forecasts are in their infancy.
However, as
far as I understand it the 1.2 degrees C average
warming of the Earth's
surface for a doubling
of atmospheric carbon dioxide has not been challenged.