Sentences with phrase «future aerosol emission»
Partanen, A. - I., Landry, J. - S., and Matthews, H. D.: Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios, Environ.
http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ Not exact matches
This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate models based on projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
A few of the main points of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
Non-polar glacial ice holds a wealth of information about past changes in climate, the environment and especially atmospheric composition, such as variations in temperature, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and emissions of natural aerosols or human - made pollutants... The glaciers therefore hold the memory of former climates and help to predict future environmental changes.
Global climate models are essential tools for understanding climate change and for developing policy regarding future emissions of greenhouse gases, primary aerosol particles, and aerosol precursor gases.
Since climate scientists certainly don't have a crystal ball, we generally take a range of scenarios or projections of future emissions of CO2 and other important forcings such as methane and aerosols.
The expected global average direct + indirect forcings for aerosols vary between -1.0 (Japan) and -1.4 W / m2 (Hansen, IPCC) for the past centuries and -0.9 to -1.3 W / m2 for future (2050, 2100) emissions (Canada).
Pitari, G., E. Mancini, V. Rizi, and D. Shindell, 2002: Feedback of future climate and sulfur emission changes an stratospheric aerosols and ozone, J. Atmos.
The future concentrations of LLGHGs and the anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), a chemical precursor of sulphate aerosol, are obtained from several scenarios considered representative of low, medium and high emission trajectories.
Summary for Policymakers Technical Summary Chapter 1 Ozone and Climate Chapter 2 Chemical and Radiative Effects of HFCs, PFCs, and Their Possible Replacements Chapter 3 Methodologies Chapter 4 Refrigeration Chapter 5 Residential and Commercial Air Conditioning and Heating Chapter 6 Mobile Air Conditioning Chapter 7 Foams Chapter 8 Medical Aerosols Chapter 9 Fire Protection Chapter 10 Non-medical Aerosols, Solvents and HFC - 23 Chapter 11 Current and Future Supply, Demand and Emissions of HFCs and PFCs, plus Emissions of CFCs, Halons
The IPCC model projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.
• Estimation of future emissions and biogeochemical cycling (including sources and sinks) of greenhouse gases, aerosols and aerosol precursors and projections of future concentrations and radiative properties.
Differences in future atmospheric burdens and radiative forcing for aerosols are dominated by divergent assumptions about emissions from South and East Asia.
This also depends on how our aerosol and soot emissions change in the future.
«Because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward).»
Pitari, G., E. Mancini, V. Rizi, and D.T. Shindell, 2002: Impact of future climate and emission changes on stratospheric aerosols and ozone.
[Response: For any projection for the future of climate, you obviously need a projection of emissions (greenhouse gases, ozone and aerosol precursors, etc.), land use change and so on.
Uncertainties affecting the prediction of climate change and its speed: future emissions, climate sensitivity, aerosols, characteristic time scales.
On one hand, the reduction in global SO2 emissions reduces the role of sulfate aerosols in determining future climate toward the end of the 21st century and therefore reduces one aspect of uncertainty about future climate change (because the precise forcing effect of sulfate aerosols is highly uncertain).
The SRES scenarios were constructed to explore future developments in the global environment with special reference to greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions.
Future climate change may cause significant air quality degradation by changing the dispersion rate of pollutants, the chemical environment for ozone and aerosol generation and the strength of emissions from the biosphere, fires and dust.
The climate feedbacks involved with these changes, which are key in understanding the climate system as a whole, include: + the importance of aerosol absorption on climate + the impact of aerosol deposition which affects biology and, hence, emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursors via organic nitrogen, organic phosphorus and iron fertilization + the importance of land use and land use changes on natural and anthropogenic aerosol sources + the SOA sources and impact on climate, with special attention on the impact human activities have on natural SOA formation In order to quantitatively answer such questions I perform simulations of the past, present and future atmospheres, and make comparisons with measurements and remote sensing data, all of which help understand, evaluate and improve the model's parameterizations and performance, and our understanding of the Earth system.
The latter is taken into account by assuming scenarios about future GHG and aerosol emissions.
I suspect that given the paucity of knowledge in relation to clouds and aerosols (not to mention cycles)... the original X factors for the equation ranged through values that at the lower end produced no scary warming scenarios for the future doubling (ie at or lower than 1.5 C) to those that were very scary at 3 - 4.5 C — or even 6 C if you add strong feedbacks from melting ice, permafrost and emissions of methane.
The change is in response to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols based on a «middle of the road» estimate of future emissions.
There are some educated guesses about what aerosol emissions will do in the near future (will write about that another time; briefly, over US and EU they will and are already decreasing, resp, whereas over Asia they will probably increase before decreasing later this century)