Chapter 10 considers the possibilities for
future carbon cycle feedbacks.
At the Hadley Centre, Cox has just finished modelling the likely
future carbon cycle.
These maps, with more than 50,000 pixels, show surprisingly large local variation in trait values that could significantly impact
future carbon cycle calculations produced by Earth System models (ESMs).
Not exact matches
Understanding
carbon cycling is essential to understanding present and
future changes to global climate.
By reconstructing past global warming and the
carbon cycle on Earth 56 million years ago, researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute among others have used computer modelling to estimate the potential perspective for
future global warming, which could be even warmer than previously thought.
Should we worry more about quantum decryption in the
future or the past, how salt's role as a micronutrient may effect the global
carbon cycle, and a daily news roundup.
«
Future climate change may be underestimated,» says study coauthor Yujie He, a
carbon cycle researcher at the University of California, Irvine.
«These numbers are important to quantifying the global
carbon cycle and making predictions about
future stocks and flows of
carbon.»
To understand and prepare for the
carbon cycle of the
future, we have an urgent need to find out.
Only with this knowledge, we can estimate how global change will alter the
carbon cycle in the
future.»
This study highlights the key role of vegetation in controlling
future terrestrial hydrologic response and emphasizes that the continental
carbon and water
cycles are intimately coupled over land and must be studied as an interconnected system.
Armed with this information, scientists will be able to do a much better job forecasting atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations in the
future, he said, and in understanding the role of human activities on the
carbon cycle.
Special attention is paid to feedbacks of physiological changes on the
carbon, nitrogen, iron, and sulfur
cycles and how these changes will affect and be affected by
future climate change.
Friedlingstein, P., et al., 2001: Positive feedback between
future climate change and the
carbon cycle.
Dufresne, J. - L., et al., 2002: On the magnitude of positive feedback between
future climate change and the
carbon cycle.
We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global
carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people,
future generations, and nature.
«Our goal was to complete the
carbon cycle to understand where global
carbon production would end up and then make forecasts of how the system would react in the
future.»
But the most impt part of the
future carbon fate will be oceans & inorganic
carbon cycle.
Further research will be required to investigate if this fluctuation carries features of projected
future climate change and the CO2 growth rate anomaly has been a first indicator of a developing positive feedback between climate warming and the global
carbon cycle.
Polar amplication is of global concern due to the potential effects of
future warming on ice sheet stability and, therefore, global sea level (see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and
carbon cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (see Chapter 6)... The magnitude of polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration of different climate feedbacks, which determine the transient and equilibrium response to external forcings.
Since this goes along with an increasing greenhouse effect and a further global warming, a better understanding of the
carbon cycle is of great importance for all
future climate change predictions.
Well, OK, but I would point out that CO2 in the past appears to act as an amplifier for orbitally forced climate change, so if anything, we might expect the
carbon cycle in the
future to amplify our own climate forcing, rather than counteract it.
The whole problem of how much warming will occur convolves lots of questions involving how the climate reacts to greenhouse gases, the
carbon cycle, and our
future path as societies in terms of our energy use (and other emissions).
«Generally accepted modern understanding of the global
carbon cycle indicates that climate effects of CO2 releases to the atmosphere will persist for tens, if not hundreds, of housands of years into the
future.»
He has published research on the
carbon cycle of the ocean and the sea floor, at present, in the past, and in the
future.
This paper is nonetheless interesting for the link that they make to the
carbon cycle and the potential for feedbacks that may amplify the CO2 concentration in the
future that will depend on the warming, and hence on climate sensitivity.
It is also very crucial to include the most definitive estimates of additional
carbon cycle feedbacks that have already been locked in due to current (and
future) warming.
The authors hope that the radiocarbon approach used in the study could help hone in on the intricacies of the
carbon cycle for
future research, in particular, how the natural
carbon cycle responds to human - caused climate change.
Mystakidis, S., Davin, E. L., Gruber, N. and Seneviratne, S. I. (2016), Constraining
future terrestrial
carbon cycle projections using observation - based water and
carbon flux estimates.
EMBRACE aims to improve the representation of key
carbon cycle processes in European ESMs, leading to more accurate and reliable
future projections.
Differences between high and low projections in climate models used by the IPCC stem mainly from uncertainties over feedback mechanisms - for example, how the
carbon cycle and clouds will react to
future warming.
Pehl et al. (2017) Understanding
future emissions from low -
carbon power systems by integration of life
cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling, Nature Energy, doi: 10.1038 / s41560 -017-0032-9
On the magnitude of positive feedback between
future climate change and the
carbon cycle.
Regarding balance in research, today the $ 1.7 billion USGCRP budget is dominated by (1) basic
carbon cycle research, which assumes AGW, and (2) applied modeling that looks at the following question: «given AGW, how bad will it get in the
future?»
A
future strong positive feedback from the
carbon cycle, on the other hand, could add as much CO2 to the atmosphere as humans have, leading to temperature increases well beyond the International Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) upper limits.
If the above properties of the
carbon cycle are real and enduring, then it is likely that bringing
future emissions to zero would not reduce temperatures except in the very long term.
As specified by the RCPs, which encompass a multitude of assumptions about the
future but entirely elide key
carbon cycle feedbacks.
Evaluation of the terrestrial
carbon cycle,
future plant geography and climate -
carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)
Still, the scientists note that a number of uncertainties underpin the path of
future warming, including feedback processes like the
carbon cycle and clouds.
In a recent paper, Lovenduski and Bonan (2017) asked whether the confusion of
future carbon and climate could be simplified to a single strand by assigning weights to models based on their ability to simulate key
carbon cycle observations.
And you also knew, for example, that that an average gas driven car emitted 4.7 tons of
carbon dioxide per year and an electric car would cut that in half even when powered from the current polluting grid, and much much less on a life
cycle basis from a
future global efficient renewable energy system displacing almost all fossil fuels.
GIMS13 will provide a platform for discussions of current knowledge and
future research on gas inventories, fluxes and the role within the
carbon cycle and biodiversity.
Thus if it is decided in the
future that CO2 must be extracted from the air and removed from the
carbon cycle (e.g., by storing it underground or in carbonate bricks), the impact on atmospheric CO2 amount will diminish in time.
Moreover the recent decline of the yearly increments d (CO2) / dt acknowledged by Francey et al (2013)(figure 17 - F) and even by James Hansen who say that the Chinese coal emissions have been immensely beneficial to the plants that are now bigger grow faster and eat more CO2 due to the fertilisation of the air (references in note 19) cast some doubts on those compartment models with many adjustable parameters, models proved to be blatantly wrong by observations as said very politely by Wang et al.: (Xuhui Wang et al: A two-fold increase of
carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations, Nature, 2014) «Thus, the problems present models have in reproducing the observed response of the
carbon cycle to climate variability on interannual timescales may call into question their ability to predict the
future evolution of the
carbon cycle and its feedbacks to climate»
Quantitative implications of the secondary role of
carbon dioxide climate forcing in the past glacial - interglacial
cycles for the likely
future climatic impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse - gas forcings (arXiv: 0707.1276, July 2007)-- Soon, Willie
Written in an accessible way, and assuming no specialist prior knowledge, this important book examines the processes of climate change and climate stability, from the distant past to the distant
future.This book examines the greenhouse effect, the
carbon cycle, and what the
future may hold for global climate.
They could aid understanding of how
carbon cycling in the region may evolve as climate change progresses and help refine predictions of
future climate change.
Uncertainty in these projections due to potential
future climate change effects on the ocean
carbon cycle (mainly through changes in temperature, ocean stratification and marine biological production and re-mineralization; see Box 7.3) are small compared to the direct effect of rising atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic emissions.
It is intellectually dishonest to devote several pages to cherry - picking studies that disagree with the IPCC consensus on net health effects because you don't like its scientific conclusion, while then devoting several pages to hiding behind [a misstatement of] the U.N. consensus on sea level rise because you know a lot reasonable people think the U.N. wildly underestimated the upper end of the range and you want to attack Al Gore for worrying about 20 - foot sea level rise.On this blog, I have tried to be clear what I believe with my earlier three - part series: Since sea level, arctic ice, and most other climate change indicators have been changing faster than most IPCC models projected and since the IPCC neglects key amplifying
carbon cycle feedbacks, the IPCC reports almost certainly underestimate
future climate impacts.
An improved global understanding of nutrient availability would therefore greatly improve
carbon cycle modelling and should become a critical focus for
future research.