Instead of looking at whether the prices have gone up or down, and getting excited or scared, they need to begin to think in terms of what is
the future cash flow yield of the investment that I am pursuing?
Not exact matches
Clearly, when you drive rates to zero, hammer down a
yield curve, so real rates are zero, it changes the way you can discount
future cash flows, present value.
They offer high - quality current dividend
yields and strong free
cash flow to support past and
future consistent dividend growth.
The trick with valuing any
future cash flow is figuring out the right
yield to use.
PNR currently
yields 1.30 % with a low payout ratio of 25.4 % ensuring
future dividend increases based on current
cash flow.
Because
yield to maturity is the interest rate an investor would earn by reinvesting every coupon payment from the bond at a constant interest rate until the bond's maturity date, the present value of all the
future cash flows equals the bond's market price.
In the ETF, your bet is that the market is wrong and oil will go up, increasing
future cash flows (or you like the current
yield, taking on the risk that some of these oil explorers could go bust).
Option - Adjusted Spread (OAS) techniques value a bond's
cash flows using a theoretical
yield curve, attaching probabilities to
future interest rate movements.
If market participants believe that there is higher inflation on the horizon, interest rates and bond
yields will rise (and prices will decrease) to compensate for the loss of the purchasing power of
future cash flows.
It looked dumb on current performance, but if you look at investing as a business asking what level of surplus
cash flows the underlying investments will throw off, it was an easy choice, because bonds were offering a much higher
future yield than stocks.
While the stock price has fallen, and so does the underlying earnings or
cash flow, you would be able to find stocks with a combination of good
cash flow yield and good
future appreciation.
I think the interest rate threat is overblown with a
yield that is over 5 %, and the large number of long term leases will ensure predictable
cash flow for the foreseeable
future.
Note that the
cash flows used in the EV model do not incorporate any assumptions regarding
future rental growth, and therefore the required return by investors in the marketplace that would be representative of the equivalent
yield is the one that does not incorporate any expectations of rent growth or rent decline to that effect.