Sentences with phrase «future emissions projections»

Land - based food systems may also fluctuate under future emissions projections.

Not exact matches

The findings «don't necessarily suggest future emissions will generally be higher or lower than current projections, but they suggest that this will depend more sensitively on how exactly economies grow (or shrink),» he said.

Overly optimistic projections of future oil supply, which are much higher than the latest NEB projections and don't consider the Alberta government's cap on oil sands emissions imposed by its Climate Leadership Plan.

The long - term warming over the 21st century, however, is strongly influenced by the future rate of emissions, and the projections cover a wide variety of scenarios, ranging from very rapid to more modest economic growth and from more to less dependence on fossil fuels.

This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate models based on projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.

Combining the asylum - application data with projections of future warming, the researchers found that an increase of average global temperatures of 1.8 °C — an optimistic scenario in which carbon emissions flatten globally in the next few decades and then decline — would increase applications by 28 percent by 2100, translating into 98,000 extra applications to the EU each year.

When this model was then applied to the future, they found that in a world of continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold for widespread drought - induced vascular damage would be crossed and initiate widespread tree deaths on average across climate model projections in the 2050s.

Future projections for the same cities are drawn from climate models that estimate temperature and humidity assuming global greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.

Scientists have developed and used Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the global climate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st century.

Air pollutant emission inventories are essential in measuring the impact of pollution on air quality and the climate, as they are fed into atmospheric and climate models to make projections for the future.

Due mainly to uncertainties in future greenhouse emissions, projections for the 2050s and 2080s diverge more — but in all scenarios mortality would rise steeply.

Lin also plans to use their data to make projections about Salt Lake's emissions future, including the city's goal to reduce CO2 emissions by 80 percent by the year 2040.

Decisions made today are made in the context of confident projections of future warming with continued emissions, but clearly there is more to do to better characterize the human and economic consequences of delaying action on climate change and how to frame these issues in the context of other concerns.

Projections of Future Changes in Climate «For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

IIASA researchers have been involved in greenhouse gas emission projections since the beginning of climate change research in the 1970s, including research on both historical emissions as well as projections for future emissions based on multiple scenarios of economic and population growth and technological change.

The IPCC instead proffers «what if» projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios,» Trenberth wrote in journal Nature's blog on June 4, 2007.

Future emissions estimated based on OECD projections for economic growth and steady progress towards the upper (65 %) or lower (60 %) end of China's carbon intensity target for 2030.

Climate change scenarios are based on projections of future greenhouse gas (particularly carbon dioxide) emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations given various plausible but imagined combinations of how governments, societies, economies, and technologies will change in the future.

Maps show median projections for 2100 under the high emissions future.

Since climate scientists certainly don't have a crystal ball, we generally take a range of scenarios or projections of future emissions of CO2 and other important forcings such as methane and aerosols.

The Climate Impact Lab's sea - level rise projections use a framework that ties together multiple threads of information to assess the probability of local sea - level changes around the world, under different future emissions scenarios.

Sensitivity analysis shows that future fire potential depends on many factors such as climate model and emission scenario used for climate change projection.

2) They include unrealistic projections for future CO2 emissions, and for future CO2 atmospheric concentrations.

Future projections show that, for most scenarios assuming no additional GHG emission reduction policies, atmospheric concentrations of GHGs are expected to continue climbing for most if not all of the remainder of this century, with associated increases in average temperature.

The IPCC instead proffers «what if» projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios.

A tax of $ 20 / ton, with an inflation - adjusted 4 % annual increase, knocks emissions down 14 % by 2020, and a larger number in 2050 if you believe economic projections that far in the future.

April 21: «碳在中国的未来 (The Future of Carbon in China)» by John Romankiewicz, New Energy Finance, providing an overview on the demand projection for offsets from Chinese emissions reduction projects and look at the current outlook for CDM and disucssing the potential of domestic markets for credits (carbon and otherwise) based on China's NAMA action.

Projections of future climate changes in different emissions - scenarios are accompanied by error - bars representing the range of uncertainty.

As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 °C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place.

Climate change is a lagged result of cumulative emissions, so errors in forecasts of what will happen after 2050 are of much less importance than getting projections right for the next few decades — this is fortunate because of course we can't know what will happen many decades into the future.

The Royal Society report includes references to Clark et al, 2016 in Nature Climate Change, suggesting the final sea level rise on millennia timescale caused by anthropogenic climate change (partly depending on future emissions) lies in a range between 29 to 55 metres and to DeConto & Pollard, 2016 in Nature, a study suggesting hydro - fracturing and ice cliff collapse around Antarctic ice sheets increases high end projection for sea level rise by 2100 to ± 2 metres.

This rise is larger and probably faster than any such change over the past 9,000 years.Climate models are far from perfect, and they rely on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions that are far from certain.

The IPCC model projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.

As reported by other flora wide studies [20]--[21], our projections of range size change vary greatly based on future climate simulations, emission levels, and dispersal scenarios.

As in these studies, model projections depend greatly on future climate simulations, emission levels, and dispersal scenarios.

• Estimation of future emissions and biogeochemical cycling (including sources and sinks) of greenhouse gases, aerosols and aerosol precursors and projections of future concentrations and radiative properties.

Most UN climate projections already anticipate that the world will develop and use «negative - emissions technologies» at some point in the future — that is, some technology that can scrub carbon from the air.

Tying future human CO2 growth projections to human population growth projections and adding in a 30 % estimated increase in per capita CO2 emissions by 2100, gives you a CO2 level of 640 ppmv (or a bit higher than IPCC case B2).

A «business as usual» scenario is frequently used as the basis for projections of how the future climate will evolve in the absence of climate policy that seeks to reduce emissions.

For their future climate projections, Gillett et al. use five - member ensembles of scenario simulations from 2006 — 2100 with RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios.

It is for this reason that the scenario framework distinguishes between «pathways,» which describe one component (such as RCPs or SSPs) of integrated scenarios, and «scenarios» themselves, which combine pathways with other information such as emissions, climate projections and policy assumptions to produce integrated descriptions of future climate and human system development.

I am aware that models diverge in terms of future projections for equivalent emissions scenarios.

And the longer this «pause» in warming continues while GHG emissions continue unabated, the more «uncertain» become the model - based attribution estimates of IPCC and, hence, the projections for the future.

Emission trajectories - These are projections of future emission pathways, or observed emission patterns.

The authors also published their own response with Carbon Brief, pointing out that they «present no evidence in our paper to suggest that future CO2 - induced warming under any emissions scenario will be lower than the projections given in AR5 [the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report]».

Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50 % of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95 % by mid-century.

Most economic models, including those used to produce projections of future greenhouse gas emissions, are not capable of modeling abrupt changes such as these.

Indeed by producing large ensembles, for multiple different emission scenarios, we do present the climate projections as a set of possible future climate risks, with associated uncertainty.

Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

Projections of future emissions and removals in the sector are extremely uncertain, and most countries did not specify their assumed accounting approaches or data sources.