When everyone believes in the inevitability of stocks, à la «Dow 36,000» (we'll get there by 2025 or so), equity valuations are high, past equity performance has probably been great, and
the future equity premium is small — think 1929, 1972, August 1987 and February 2000.
Focuses in its concluding chapters on the historical equity premium and on an estimate for and implications of
the future equity premium.
Not exact matches
If the
equity premium puzzle is real and not just luck, there is little reason to think that this generation or
future generations will require less expected return for holding nondiversifiable
equity risk.
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held at zero (rather than a historically normal level of 4 %), one can «justify»
equity valuations about 4 % above historical norms — a
premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective
future stock returns.
Estimates of the
future equity risk
premium should start with historical results and then adjust for expected shifts in stock market variability and non-repeatability of unusual past cash flows.
Chapter 13 — The Prospective Risk
Premium estimates the
future equity risk
premium for the U.S., U.K. and world markets.
Does shorting the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short - Term
Futures ETN (VXX) with crash protection (to capture the
equity volatility risk
premium safely) work?
... formal asset valuation models (extrapolations of historical return data) provide the most (least) predictive estimates of the
future equity risk
premium.
«
Equity Market and Treasuries Variance Risk
Premiums as Return Predictors» reports a finding, among others, that the variance risk
premium for 10 - year U.S. Treasury notes (T - note) predicts near - term returns for those notes (as manifested via
futures).
As a forward - looking quantity, the
equity - risk
premium is theoretical and can not be known precisely, since no one knows how a particular stock, a basket of stocks, or the stock market as a whole will perform in the
future.
The costs to the homeowner include the upfront and annual insurance
premiums, as well as a share of the
equity created by the write - down associated with the HOPE for Homeowners mortgage and any
future appreciation in the value of the home.
In response to «Shorting VXX with Crash Protection», which investigates shorting iPath S&P 500 VIX Short - Term
Futures (VXX) with crash protection to capture the
equity volatility risk
premium safely, a subscriber asked about instead using a long position in ProShares Short VIX Short - Term
Futures (SVXY).
Does shorting the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short - Term
Futures ETN (VXX) with crash protection (to capture the
equity volatility risk
premium safely) work?
Do not use them for borrower qualification, MI eligibility, Agency acceptance,
premium rates or amounts, monthly payments, home
equity or
future home value.
Equity risk
premium bears argue that so much of these past stock returns have been driven by increases in earnings and dividend multiples, it would be nearly impossible for a further expansion in these to contribute to
future returns.
For MBIA, book value is adjusted to reflect the company's
equity in unearned
premiums, and for Forest City Enterprises, book value is adjusted to reflect the capitalized value of expected
future rental income from credit - worthy tenants.
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held at zero (rather than a historically normal level of 4 %), one can «justify»
equity valuations about 4 % above historical norms — a
premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective
future stock returns.
This roll cost of VIX
futures is equivalent to the upfront
premium for
equity put options.
«The
equity risk
premium is the expected
future return of stocks minus the risk - free rate over some investment horizon.
Further, he opts for
premium redirection to ensure that his
future premiums are also invested in the
equity oriented fund.
She can choose to redirect
future premiums to another fund different from
Equity Large Cap Fund.
Bitcoin
futures will be priced at a
premium to standard
Equity Index
futures, but in line with the pricing conventions of other
premium products.