These scaling relationships do not appear to provide a reliable basis for projecting
future precipitation extremes.
Not exact matches
For instance, though about 30 percent of farmers surveyed agreed that
extreme weather events will become more frequent in the
future, 52 percent agreed that farmers should take additional steps to protect their land from increased
precipitation.
Daniel Swain and colleagues model how the frequency of these rapid, year - to - year transitions from
extreme dry to wet conditions — which they dub «
precipitation whiplash events» — may change in California's
future as a consequence of man - made warming.
Climate model projections show a warmer Montana in the
future, with mixed changes in
precipitation, more
extreme events, and mixed certainty on upcoming drought.
Durman, C.F., et al., 2001: A comparison of
extreme European daily
precipitation simulated by a global model and regional climate model for present and
future climates.
Changes in
extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of
future changes in
extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy
precipitation with warming.
Precipitation extremes and their potential
future changes were predicted using six - member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).
Our warming world is, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, increasing heat waves and intense
precipitation in some places, and is likely to bring more
extreme weather in the
future.
There are multiple studies associating
extreme precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks and strong climatological evidence for increasing frequency and intensity of
extreme precipitation events in the
future.
Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50 % of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events i
Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50 % of the
precipitation may be associated with extreme events i
precipitation may be associated with
extreme events in the
future.
Therefore, understanding current and
future patterns of
extreme precipitation is central to NOAA's mission and highly relevant to society.
One dynamically downscaled IPCC simulation (WRF - MPI - ECHAM5) has a robust representation of Pacific sea surface temperature variability in the
future projection period up to 2040, but the relationship to enhancement of
precipitation extremes is not as clear as in observations.
The relationship between SSTs and spatial gradients in changes in (
extreme)
precipitation is an important finding for analysing necessary measures to anticipate
future changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the country.
Output from global circulation models indicates that climate variability will continue to be an important characteristic of the region in the
future [52], but that climate change may increase the risk of
extreme climatic events such as multi-decade droughts and
extreme winter
precipitation [53], [54].
Using an ensemble of four high resolution (~ 25 km) regional climate models, this study analyses the
future (2021 - 2050) spatial distribution of seasonal temperature and
precipitation extremes in the Ganges river basin based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario.
More
extreme precipitation events (with 3 - hour duration) so intense than in the past they would be exceeded on average only once every 10 years are projected to occur on average three times as often in
future in Metro Vancouver and about three and a half times as often in
future in CRD.
Future change of
precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models.
In concert with the results for increased
extremes of intense
precipitation, even if the wind strength of storms in a
future climate did not change, there would be an increase in
extreme rainfall intensity.
9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of
future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Concl
future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of
Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Concl
Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2
Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in
extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions