Sentences with phrase «future precipitation projections»
This time, «there is low confidence in future precipitation projections at a subregional level and thus in future freshwater availability in most parts of Asia.»
https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/ Not exact matches
The researchers tested how future precipitation and temperature projections would interact with aspects of the land surface such as vegetation and soil type to affect groundwater recharge during two time intervals: 2021 - 2050 and 2071 - 2100.
For projections of future temperature and precipitation during the near future (2021 - 2050) and the far future (2071 - 2100), the researchers used 11 different global climate models.
The difference among the recharge projections from the 11 global change models reflects the difference in future regional precipitation that the models project, the authors write.
Current climate change models indicate temperatures will increase as long as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but the projections of future precipitation are far less certain.
The two researchers wanted to provide water managers with insight into how future projections of temperature and precipitation for the Colorado River Basin would affect the river's flows.
They also conclude that regional precipitation projections for warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C remain uncertain, «but the eastern U.S. is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and Northwest are projected to experience drier summers in the future.»
Global climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showing temperature and precipitation trends for two different future scenarios, as described in the Climate chapter of this assessment (IPCC 2014a).
Climate model projections show a warmer Montana in the future, with mixed changes in precipitation, more extreme events, and mixed certainty on upcoming drought.
Emori, S., A. Hasegawa, T. Suzuki, and K. Dairaku, 2005: Validation, parameterization dependence and future projection of daily precipitation simulated with an atmospheric GCM.
Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area (3 — 5), is critical for reliable projections of future changes.
Projections of future climate over the U.S. suggest that the recent trend towards increased heavy precipitation events will continue.
It started with computer projections of future temperature rise along with changes in precipitation, soil moisture and so forth.
One dynamically downscaled IPCC simulation (WRF - MPI - ECHAM5) has a robust representation of Pacific sea surface temperature variability in the future projection period up to 2040, but the relationship to enhancement of precipitation extremes is not as clear as in observations.
Overall, there is low confidence in the projections of specifically how climate change will impact future precipitation on a subregional scale, and thus in projections of how climate change might impact the availability of water resources.
Projections of future changes in precipitation show small increases in the global average but substantial shifts in where and how precipitation falls.
In agreement with this speculation are climate projections suggesting increased flood magnitude in the future across the Southwest, despite reduced mean precipitation amounts [4].
Obviously, climate models whose hindcasts differ in sign from what is observed (Zhang et al., 2007), or which indicate that human influences are indistinguishable from natural changes (Sarojini et al., 2012) possess no skill in identifying a human - induced climate signal on observed precipitation across the U.S. and therefore should not be used to make future projections.
We are beginning to sound like a broken record here, but again, it is impossible to present reliable future projections for precipitations changes across the U.S. (seasonal or annual) from a collection of climate models which largely can not even get the sign (much less the magnitude) of the observed changes correct.
As a result, we analyze the NCDC Palmer indicators in conjunction with observed temperature and precipitation data for the historical period, but we do not calculate the Palmer indicators for the future (for future projections of the PDSI, refer to refs.
9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclfuture climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 ConclFuture Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions
The effects that climate change are «likely to amplify», the growth of the world population, the * projection * of the people put at risk, and the * projection * of future precipitation are statements that are implicit references to models of and interactions with the climate.
Thus projections of future precipitation changes are more robust for some regions than for others.
Regional patterns of sea surface temperature change: a source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation.
[10] Observed trends in precipitation and floods over Europe are in line with these future projections, however their climate change signal is quite complex.