Further, these machine learning based results can be used to validate the climate models so we have confidence in
the future predictions of these models.
Not exact matches
Projecting the
future, or
future - casting, is the work
of combining social science, research, technical data, economic trends and, yes, even science fiction, to
model a
prediction of the
future.
This glowingly successful
model can be expanded further to establish
predictions about the
future evolution
of humans and human social systems.
Time for some brutal honesty... this team, as it stands, is in no better position to compete next season than they were 12 months ago, minus the fact that some fans have been easily snowed by the acquisition
of Lacazette, the free transfer LB and the release
of Sanogo... if you look at the facts carefully you will see a team that still has far more questions than answers... to better show what I mean by this statement I will briefly discuss the current state
of affairs on a position - by - position basis... in goal we have 4 potential candidates, but in reality we have only 1 option with any real
future and somehow he's the only one we have actively tried to get rid
of for years because he and his father were a little too involved on social media and he got caught smoking (funny how people still defend Wiltshire under the same and far worse circumstances)... you would think we would want to keep any goaltender that Juventus had interest in, as they seem to have a pretty good history when it comes to that position... as far as the defenders on our current roster there are only a few individuals whom have the skill and / or youth worthy
of our time and / or investment, as such we should get rid
of anyone who doesn't meet those simple requirements, which means we should get rid
of DeBouchy, Gibbs, Gabriel, Mertz and loan out Chambers to see if last seasons foray with Middlesborough was an anomaly or a
prediction of things to come... some fans have lamented wildly about the return
of Mertz to the starting lineup due to his FA Cup performance but these sort
of pie in the sky meanderings are indicative
of what's wrong with this club and it's wishy - washy fan - base... in addition to these moves the club should aggressively pursue the acquisition
of dominant and mobile CB to stabilize an all too fragile defensive group that has self - destructed on numerous occasions over the past 5 seasons... moving forward and building on our need to re-establish our once dominant presence throughout the middle
of the park we need to target a CDM then do whatever it takes to get that player into the fold without any
of the usual nickel and diming we have become famous for (this kind
of ruthless haggling has cost us numerous special players and certainly can't help make the player in question feel good about the way their
future potential employer feels about them)... in order for us to become dominant again we need to be strong up the middle again from Goalkeeper to CB to DM to ACM to striker, like we did in our most glorious years before and during Wenger's reign... with this in mind, if we want Ozil to be that dominant attacking midfielder we can't keep leaving him exposed to constant ridicule about his lack
of defensive prowess and provide him with the proper players in the final third... he was never a good defensive player in Real or with the German National squad and they certainly didn't suffer as a result
of his presence on the pitch... as for the rest
of the midfield the blame falls squarely in the hands
of Wenger and Gazidis, the fact that Ramsey, Ox, Sanchez and even Ozil were allowed to regularly start when none
of the aforementioned had more than a year left under contract is criminal for a club
of this size and financial might... the fact that we could find money for Walcott and Xhaka, who weren't even guaranteed starters, means that our whole business
model needs a complete overhaul... for me it's time to get rid
of some serious deadweight, even if it means selling them below what you believe their market value is just to simply right this ship and change the stagnant culture that currently exists... this means saying goodbye to Wiltshire, Elneny, Carzola, Walcott and Ramsey... everyone, minus Elneny, have spent just as much time on the training table as on the field
of play, which would be manageable if they weren't so inconsistent from a performance standpoint (excluding Carzola, who is like the recent version
of Rosicky — too bad, both will be deeply missed)... in their places we need to bring in some proven performers with no history
of injuries... up front, although I do like the possibilities that a player like Lacazette presents, the fact that we had to wait so many years to acquire some true quality at the striker position falls once again squarely at the feet
of Wenger... this issue highlights the ultimate scam being perpetrated by this club since the arrival
of Kroenke: pretend your a small market club when it comes to making purchases but milk your fans like a big market club when it comes to ticket prices and merchandising... I believe the reason why Wenger hasn't pursued someone
of Henry's quality, minus a fairly inexpensive RVP, was that he knew that they would demand players
of a similar ilk to be brought on board and that wasn't possible when the business
model was that
of a «selling» club... does it really make sense that we could only make a cheeky bid for Suarez, or that we couldn't get Higuain over the line when he was being offered up for half the price he eventually went to Juve for, or that we've only paid any interest to strikers who were clearly not going to press their current teams to let them go to Arsenal like Benzema or Cavani... just part
of the facade that finally came crashing down when Sanchez finally called their bluff... the fact remains that no one wants to win more than Sanchez, including Wenger, and although I don't agree with everything that he has done off the field, I would much rather have Alexis front and center than a manager who has clearly bought into the Kroenke
model in large part due to the fact that his enormous ego suggests that only he could accomplish great things without breaking the bank... unfortunately that isn't possible anymore as the game has changed quite dramatically in the last 15 years, which has left a largely complacent and complicit Wenger on the outside looking in... so don't blame those players who demanded more and were left wanting... don't blame those fans who have tried desperately to raise awareness for several years when cracks began to appear... place the blame at the feet
of those who were well aware all along
of the potential pitfalls
of just such a plan but continued to follow it even when it was no longer a financial necessity, like it ever really was...
This gives confidence in the
predictions of the current generation
of ice - sheet
models which are used to forecast
future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
A step that could improve climate
models A better understanding
of how the atmosphere and the oceans communicate and exchange things like CO2 can also help improve climate
models and
predictions of the
future.
Thus, Ellis»
model of time retains enough
of the block universe to match with relativity's
predictions, but without needing to take Einstein's drastic last step
of assuming that the fourth dimension is solidified into the infinite
future.
The objective
of these
models would not be to provide a precise forecast
of the
future (an impossible task), but rather to capture enough
of the behavior
of the educational system to make useful qualitative
predictions.
The researchers then used a mathematical
model that combined the conflict data with temperature and rainfall projections through 2050 to come up with
predictions about the likelihood
of climate - related violence in the
future.
He hopes the
model will be useful for
future predictions along these lines, such as looking at pathways
of disease progression.
«A challenge for the coming years is to use these kinds
of climate
models to be able to make
predictions about populations and ecosystems in the
future.
Why are you dubious about the possibility
of a centralized
model (or group
of models) to create accurate
predictions about the
future?
«We see a lot
of species» distributions really start to wink out after about 50 years, but it is tricky to look at
future predictions because we will have a lot
of habitat loss predicted using our
models,» McGuire said.
«Given the promise shown by the research and the ever increasing computing power, numerical
prediction of hailstorms and warnings issued based on the
model forecasts, with a couple
of hours
of lead time, may indeed be realized operationally in a not - too - distant
future, and the forecasts will also be accompanied by information on how certain the forecasts are.»
He begins by highlighting the evidence
of North Carolina's salt marshes because they are a storyline from the past — a period that state lawmakers seem to be emphasizing over
future predictions developed by computer
models.
«The study provides more realistic
modeling estimates
of how much vegetation change will occur over the 21st century and will allow better
predictions of future climate change,» she said.
A drop in CO2 due to the burial
of organic carbon in the Late Ordovician is the exact opposite
of what is happening now as massive amounts
of CO2 are being released; yet, understanding how the historic events occurred can help with
future models and
predictions, Macleod said.
The paleoclimate data, which included mainly changes in the oxygen isotopes
of the calcium carbonate deposits, were then compared to similar records from other caves, ice cores, and sediment records as well as
model predictions for water availability in the Middle East and west central Asia today and into the
future.
His
model also makes specific
predictions about the effect these clouds will have on the planet's climate and the types
of information that
future telescopes, like the James Webb Space Telescope, will be able to gather.
As can be seen your graph, our climate
models make a wide range
of predictions (perhaps 0.5 - 5 degC, a 10-fold uncertainty) about how much «committed warming» will occur in the
future under any stabilization scenario, so we don't seem to have a decent understanding
of these processes.
JILA's results, notably the effects
of molecular collisions, need to be included in
future atmospheric and combustion
model predictions, according to the paper.
Kuhn, from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, added, «This gives confidence in the
predictions of the current generation
of ice sheet
models which are used to forecast
future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
Future modeling of these processes may lead to improved glacial outburst flood hazard
predictions.
Oppenheimer and his co-authors use a technique known as «structured expert judgment» to put an actual value on the uncertainty that scientists studying climate change have about a particular
model's
prediction of future events such as sea - level rise.
Finally it is not true, as implied on Page 12, that «sole reliance on
models to the exclusion
of observed behavior» is the basis
of future climate
prediction.
The
prediction of a
future appearance is based on computer
models of the cluster, which describe the various paths the divided light is taking through the maze
of clumpy dark matter in the galactic grouping.
In no
models or
predictions of future warming scenarios does the Antarctic ice mass melt to any significant extent.
In addition, atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development
of numerical weather
prediction and former director
of research at The Netherlands» Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently compared scientists who promote computer
models predicting
future climate doom to unlicensed «software engineers.»
The extra data spanning many thousands
of years that this study uncovers will go a long way to matching
model projections with past observations, helping scientists identify the most accurate
models for making
predictions of future climate change.
For large animals, like hippo and buffalo, their sensitivity to change — especially with
predictions of more frequent and prolonged drought — means they don't do well in any
of the
future scenarios
modelled by the park's scientific teams.
The development and validation
of new risk scores with sex - specific weighting
of risk factors could be a promising tool for
future prediction models.
Each tool serves a different purpose: Mint is for budgeting, Personal Capital is for the investment side, Google Sheets is for tracking the history
of my journey, and OnTrajectory
models future growth
predictions based on any number
of factors.
You can find all sorts
of predictions of expected
future returns based on various factors, calculations, and
models, but unfortunately, most
of them point to a rate
of return for both stocks and bonds in the next few years that is below historical averages.
These statistical
models are very efficient at encapsulating existing information concisely and as long as things don't change much, they can provide reasonable
predictions of future behaviour.
«Rather the focus must be upon the
prediction of the probability distribution
of the system s
future possible states by the generation
of ensembles
of model solutions.
A warning to the skeptics — there are very obvious trends for most
of the parameters, which accord with climate
model predictions for a hotter drier
future.
Future changes in the polar vortex appear to be quite
model dependent, and so
predictions of this aspect
of polar change are highly uncertain.
I realize that Schweiger means this in a specific sense, but more generally, with all computer
modeling,
prediction of the
future involves extrapolation.
Hi, when I am discussing with climate skeptics, they often refer to the third report
of the IPCC (page 774): «In climate research and
modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term
prediction of future climate states is not possible.»
The 1988 GISS climate
model included volcanic forcing as well as a
prediction of what would happen in the
future if a large tropical volcano went boom.
You could try quoting the very next sentence to them: «The most we can expect to achieve is the
prediction of the probability distribution
of the system's
future possible states by the generation
of ensembles
of model solutions.»
For the
future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state
of a climate
model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve
predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.
In climate research and
modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term
prediction of future climate states is not possible.
Frightening thought — if and only if the AGW centric
prediction of future climate is either not completely correct, or out right wrong, consider extreme scenarios which would result in a drastically (and painfully) different outcome than the prophecied sea level rise / climatic tropical expansion / northerly movement
of species
model.
While RealClimate has called into question the soundness
of the paper's quite narrow conclusions
of discrepancy between
model predictions and measurements
of the relative rate
of warming
of different levels
of the atmosphere over the tropics, this paper is being touted by the deniers as showing that the
models are wrong to predict any warming at all, and that
predictions of future warming and climate change can be entirely discounted.
More detailed analysis
of the SST changes in the relevant regions, and comparisons with
model predictions, will probably shed more light on this question in the
future.
(Paper abstract) Climate
models may underestimate heat stored in ground General circulation
models (GCMs), the primary tool for estimating the magnitude
of future climate change, rely on realistic inputs to generate accurate
predictions.
The work
of Schmittner et al. demonstrates that climates
of the past can provide potentially powerful information to reduce uncertainty in
future climate
predictions and evaluate the likelihood
of climate change that is larger than captured in present
models.
Similarly, it can be useful to benchmark climate
models against the observed record to establish some sort
of reasonable initial state for
future predictions.
Samson wrote: when I am discussing with climate skeptics, they often refer to the third report
of the IPCC (page 774): «In climate research and
modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term
prediction of future climate states is not possible.»