How do you spur world action on this issue when there are still questions out there about future levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and the range of
future temperature increases?
Only a rapid, dramatic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can hold
future temperatures in a range bearing any resemblance to what civilization has known.
If we are to
keep future temperatures from getting far outside that range, humanity will be forced to reduce fossil fuel emissions to zero by 2050.
Before making expensive policy decisions on the basis of climate models, I think it is reasonable to require that those models predict
future temperatures accurately for a period of ten years.
More research is needed to determine
whether future temperatures in those regions would increase as much or more than currently indicated by computer models.
Large precipitation increases could counteract the declines that these all - but -
certain future temperature increases will cause.
Although ice cores demonstrate that climate, in the distant past, sometimes changed very abruptly,
future temperatures resulting from our current emissions course will likely exceed anything ever experienced by humans.
Using the formula and the observations I calculate the only unknown — the constant alpha, and then use this to
predict future temperatures at any value of CO2 concentration.
In reality, both processes occur, and climate models encompassing this complexity predicted significantly
higher future temperatures than those only including the nine - mile - high clouds.
I happen to disagree with your projections for
future temperatures evolution, and since «GMT» are well correlated, I base my views on the long term CET extrapolation.
I recently calculated hypothetical
future temperatures by plugging different ECS values into a so - called energy balance model, which scientists use to investigate possible climate scenarios.
Forecasts can only be tested against
future temperatures over time scales sufficiently long to be largely outside the range of shorter term variability.
The questions we are trying to answer are how much warmer was it at different latitudes and how can that information be used to project
future temperatures based on what we know about CO2 levels?»
All it does is shift the «mean model performance» up (as if this has some predictive value when it is in fact meaningless) and define an improbably high upper bound for the range of
possible future temperatures.
I recently calculated
hypothetical future temperatures by plugging different ECS values into a so - called energy balance model, which scientists use to investigate possible climate scenarios.
The
corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those inferred for the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when paleoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice extent and 4 to 6 m of sea level rise.
Using a simple, publically - available, climate model emulator called MAGICC that was in part developed through support of the EPA, we ran the numbers as to how
much future temperature rise would be averted by a complete adoption and adherence to the EPA's new carbon dioxide restrictions *.
In 2015, they published a smaller - scale paper, predicting up to four times
more future temperature - related takeoff problems for the common Boeing 737 - 800 at Phoenix, as well as Denver, New York's LaGuardia and Washington's Ronald Reagan.
The fact is if the lower range results are typical of
future temperatures then not only do we have little to fear, but we may actually reap some benefits from a climate more conducive to higher world agricultural productivity.
We also generated current and projected
future temperature maps, which we compared with sea surface temperature (SST) data from the 1980s.
«In order to sleep well during the summer when temperatures are warmer than normal, we may need to adapt by using more air conditioning, added fans at night and other technologies to counteract
altered future temperatures.»