Sentences with phrase «future warm decade»

These studies tend to be rather sensitive to the time period chosen, and a future warm decade could considerably change the picture.

Not exact matches

Combining the asylum - application data with projections of future warming, the researchers found that an increase of average global temperatures of 1.8 °C — an optimistic scenario in which carbon emissions flatten globally in the next few decades and then decline — would increase applications by 28 percent by 2100, translating into 98,000 extra applications to the EU each year.

The findings could serve as a warning sign that engineers need to design stronger structures, especially as glide avalanches may become more frequent: Warmer winters in the future may cause snowpacks to become, on average, wetter and denser than those seen in winters of recent decades.

Lead author, Dr Huw Griffiths from BAS says: «While a few species might thrive at least during the early decades of warming, the future for a whole range of invertebrates from starfish to corals is bleak, and there's nowhere to swim to, nowhere to hide when you're sitting on the bottom of the world's coldest and most southerly ocean and it's getting warmer by the decade.»

This shift from cool to warm in the North Atlantic has already had an impact; this past year at least 89,000 individual fires burned 9.5 million acres in the western U.S. Worse yet, forest management practices that have increased the number of trees in western woods — as well as relatively wet preceding decades — have put in place an abundance of fuel for future fires.

«We came to take a half a degree Celsius out of future warming, and we won about 90 percent of our climate prize,» said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, who has worked toward the agreement for more than a decade.

Projections of Future Changes in Climate «For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

I hope that innocent bystanders have noticed how useful the betting paradigm has been in generating consensus — me, Chip Knappenberger and the IPCC report all agree that warming is unlikely to be greater than 0.325 C / decade in the immediate future (probably «very unlikely», in IPCC - speak).

By the way, in my opinion, the elevated greenhouse gas levels already in the air, combined with the future emissions from machines already built, plus increased natural emissions from carbon sinks becoming carbon emitters (i.e. permafrost melting) will cause the rate of warming to top 0.4 C / decade by mid-century.

And you (or whoever is on your side) get a warming rate of 0.40 ºC / decade or greater - indicating that future climate change will be extreme.

«However we point out that we assume that the response of corals to future warming does not change from that observed in the last few decades.

Following this path for even another decade would doom efforts to keep future warming below 2 °C.

Future global warming can be predicted much more accurately than is generally realized... we predict additional warming in the next 50 years of 3/4 + / - 1/4 °C, a warming rate of 0.15 + / - 0.05 °C per decade.

The tight constraint on the lower limit of climate sensitivity indicates we're looking down the barrel of significant warming in future decades.

The steady uptick in warming, even with a relative slowdown in recent decades, means that the likelihood of seeing a record cold year in the future is, according to a quick calculation by Mann, «astronomically small.»

Both have been chosen because of their hopes for a brighter future, but over the decades, Frank (now played by George Clooney) has become disillusioned, and it's up to Casey and Athena to bring him around and in the process save the world from... Well, I won't spoil it, but let's just say this is the sort of movie in which a discussion of global warming plays a supporting role and the senselessness of Hollywood movies and video games receives its obligatory culture - war spanking.

Climatologist Jack Hall (Dennis Quaid) finds his dire predictions about global warming and the future of the world falling on deaf ears — until the forecasted weather changes begin happening in a matter of hours instead of the anticipated years or decades.

Future topics that will be discussed include: climate sensitivity, sea level rise, urban heat island - effects, the value of comprehensive climate models, ocean heat storage, and the warming trend over the past few decades.

But though the future will be a warmer one, I'd think that a winter such as we saw in the Balkans this year still wouldn't be out of the question for the Great Lakes region sometime over the next couple of decades.

Even in a warming climate, we could experience an extraordinary run of cold winters, but harsher winters in future decades are not among the most likely nor the most serious consequences of global warming.

I hope that innocent bystanders have noticed how useful the betting paradigm has been in generating consensus — me, Chip Knappenberger and the IPCC report all agree that warming is unlikely to be greater than 0.325 C / decade in the immediate future (probably «very unlikely», in IPCC - speak).

And you (or whoever is on your side) get a warming rate of 0.40 ºC / decade or greater - indicating that future climate change will be extreme.

I (or whoever is on my side) get a future warming rate (as determined over the next 20 years) of 0.25 ºC / decade or less — indicating that I (we) believe that future climate change will be modest.

Do you think that in the same way that the Solanki et al paper on solar sunspot reconstructions had a specific statement that their results did not contradict ideas of strong greenhouse warming in recent decades, this (the fact that climate sensitivity projections are not best estimates of possible future actual temperature increases) should be clearly noted in media releases put out by scientists when reporting climate sensitivity studies?

In future decades for example as humans clean up their pollution act how much warmer will it be?

The bottom line in this analysis is that both observations of the past decades and models looking forward to the future do not suggest that one can explain the heavy rains of Harvey by global warming, and folks that are suggesting it are poorly informing the public and decision makers.

The amount of warming we will experience beyond the next few decades depends upon choices about emissions made now and in the near future.

Computer model simulations tend to capture the slow rate of warming in the western Pacific over the last few decades, but they show the warm pool heating rapidly in the future.

At the time (1981) that Hansen published his paper on global warming, it was a theory of what could happen in future times — the trend in global temperatures was still decidedly downwards, as it had been for several decades, and upswings and downswings in the trend were regarded as «random fluctuations» which nobody bothered to try explain.

As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 °C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place.

But of course the pace of the temperature trend also depends on the global future emissions outlook and on remaining uncertainties surrounding climate sensitivity — or the politically most relevant metric «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected on a decades timescale after doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

A few decades in the future, as shown on the right, it is warm almost everywhere.

That may mean that some of the highest estimates of future temperature rises, of more than 6C within several decades, are less likely, but it does not let the world off the hook — warming of more than 2C is still highly likely on current high emissions trends, and that would cause severe consequences around the world.

The two - decade global - warming pause, which no late 1990s climate model foresaw, led the public to doubt Big Climate's confident predictions for the future.

For the past two decades, scientists have been monitoring the effects of a warming Arctic on the world's polar bears — and the bears» future has looked increasingly bleak.

Each future decade will be about 0.15 — 0.2 deg C warmer than the previous decade unless atmospheric CO2 levels are bought under some control.

«Even today, with the global warming danger level at a critical phase, Defendants continue to engage in massive fossil fuel production and execute long - term business plans to continue and even expand their fossil fuel production for decades into the future.»

Part of problem is that even with current levels of emissions, the inertia of the climate system means that not all of the warming those emissions will cause has happened yet — a certain amount is «in the pipeline» and will only rear its head in the future, because the ocean absorbs some of the heat, delaying the inherent atmospheric warming for decades to centuries.

According to the Cato Institute's book summary, «Acknowledging that industrial emissions of greenhouse gasses have warmed the planet and will continue to do so over the next several decades, Michaels and Balling argue that future warming will be moderate, not catastrophic, and will have benign economic and ecological effects.»

As for the MWP, we don't know that global temps were «as high or higher» than today, but even if they were the fact that it would have been due to some «natural» factor (s) rather than CO2 doesn't alter our expectation that increased CO2 levels should have caused warming in recent decades and should do in the future.

Following this path for even another decade would doom efforts to keep future warming below 2 °C.

Climatologists differ on the various causes of climate change, the rate at which the earth is warming, the effect of man - made emissions on warming, the most accurate climate data and temperature sets to use, and the accuracy of climate models projecting decades and centuries into the future.

A certain amount of continued warming of the planet is projected to occur as a result of human - induced emissions to date; another 0.5 °F increase would be expected over the next few decades even if all emissions from human activities suddenly stopped, 11 although natural variability could still play an important role over this time period.12 However, choices made now and in the next few decades will determine the amount of additional future warming.

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions.

If natural variations are the dominant cause of recent warming — as the satellite data suggests — then the planet may not warm for decades and the future beyond that is unknowable.

But there is a whole lot of «common sense», which (unfortunately) is missing in the projections of future climate change being sold by IPCC, starting with the failed projection of 0.2 degC warming for the first decade of the century (topic of this thread) and going on to the forecasts of 1.8 degC to 4.0 degC warming by the end of this century.

Global Warming floods and droughts crops, increases insect and fungal growth, increases the spread of said non-indigenous vermin, alters the range of crops to where geology and infrastructure (such as irrigation and farms) is not favourable (north of the Southern Manitoba bread - basket is boreal forest too acidic for crops and north even further is only accessible by winter roads)...... these problems are potentially solvable, but certainly as soon as Chinese Himalayan meltwater dries up, or as soon as a Monsoon season fails because of Global Warming, the next decade of cost savings by following the Republican / Conservative geoengineering «plan»... such preventable events in the midst of an economic golden age will be looked on by future generations as evil.

We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s, and project that similarly hot summers will become even more frequent in the future, with fully 50 % of summers being hotter than the 2013 summer in two decades even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions scenario.

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It likewise follows that the failure of temperatures to rise for almost two decades now has dampened apprehension over global warming, and that the number of future converts will rise or fall with the thermometer.