Sentences with phrase «general election forecast»

The graph below shows how my 2015 general election forecast probabilities have changed since October last year.

Not exact matches

Former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, the media tycoon who narrowly lost last year's general election, has forecast that Prodi will not last much longer in power.

The current endeavor by Tory backbenchers to repeal the Act is based on a simple calculation — most forecasts predict that the 2015 general elections will result in another hung Parliament, in which the joint seat share of the two dominant parties, Labour and the Conservatives, will be eroded even further.

[1] See Murr, A.E. (2016) «The wisdom of crowds: What do citizens forecast for the 2015 British General Election?»

With the failure of traditional forecasting methods to accurately predict the outcomes of the UK General Election of May 2015, can social media based predictions do any better?

It also compares those eight historical episodes with the plans announced by Osborne for further spending cuts before and after the UK general election scheduled for 2015, based on the assumptions (a) that those plans would be fully implemented as announced and (b) that the OBR forecasts of GDP up to 2017 proved to be broadly correct.

We should be cautious though in interpreting the forecast for the Liberal Democrats — for the simple reason that it has never happened before it is impossible to know what the effect of being in government is going to be on the performance of the Liberal Democrats at local elections relative to their eventual performance at the next general election.

Marked «sensitive» and sent to the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, two weeks after the general election, the civil service memo forecasts that «around 40,000 more... children might in the absence of any behaviour change, find themselves in poverty as a result of reducing the cap to # 23,000».

The European elections, however, provide the only opportunity before the general election to assess the ability of the pollsters to forecast the share of the vote in a Britain - wide election.

Between 1996/97 and 2009/10 (the time of the next general election), the tax burden is forecast to rise by # 8,153 a year in real terms for every household in the UK (or by # 12,881 in cash terms);

In an article for today's Platform, Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com forecasts a hung parliament at the next General Election.

Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, indicated today that the government would not set out new public spending plans before the next general election, arguing it was currently impossible to forecast the economy two years ahead.

Shortly after the 10 o'clock deadline on election day, broadcasters release a forecast based on the exit poll, which gives the first insight into how voters have actually voted in the general election.