Because of a rougher - looking schedule than in years (I mean, who really knows until halfway through the season — it was a big surprise to most that the AFCW wasn't tougher in 2017 for instance, or that the NYG would suck so epically), and no Shazier, and
general reversion to the mean, and no particular reason to think Ben will be available for every game... I'll say 10 -5-1 with losses @ Tampa, @ Cin, Carolina, @ Denver, LAC.
As a
general matter, if you're following a Graham / Schloss «group of stocks» strategy, I think you have
to pay more attention
to mean reversion with both ROIC and growth rates.