With valuations very rich,
bullish sentiment high, and stocks
generally overbought, there's a certain momentum to the market that makes it likely - in terms of probability - that stocks will be higher in the weeks ahead.
The conflict between the AAII survey results and both the price action and the results of other
sentiment surveys (the AAII survey is definitely the «odd man out») suggests that small - scale retail investors have, as a group, given up on the stock market and are
generally ignoring the
bullish opinions of mainstream analysts and advisors.