In practice, the probabilities
generated from operational
weather ensemble forecasts are not highly reliable, though with a set of past forecasts (reforecasts or hindcasts) and
observations, the probability estimates from the ensemble can be adjusted to ensure greater reliability.
This task has become easier over the last decade with the development of advanced methods of Data Assimilation commonly used in atmospheric sciences to optimally combine a short forecast with the latest meteorological
observations in order to create accurate initial conditions for
weather forecasts
generated several times a day by the National
Weather Services (e.g., [194,195,196,197,198]-RRB-.