Not exact matches
It sounds to me like that's exactly what happened, that he was in a smooth state
of equilibrium when he
got out of the diapers at night, but has now moved into the stage
of disequilibrium and he just can't control his body like he used to.
When they
get out of balance with each other, it can be quite challenging to reestablish
equilibrium.
To say it a bit worse but in modern lingo: to maintain radiative
equilibrium, the planet has to put
out a certain amount
of heat, and if it can't radiate it
out from the surface, the lower atmosphere somehow has to
get warmer until there's some level that radiates the right amount.
If we initialize the anomaly at -0.4 C, which amounts to an assumption that the system is wildly
out of equilibrium in 1900, then this is what we
get:
It
gets tricky now because the
equilibrium climate sensitivity requires a timescale to be defined — barring large hysteresis, it isn't so large going
out many millions
of years (weathering feedback); there will be a time scale
of maximum sensitivity.
A particular molecule will
get mixed into the upper ocean, but chemical
equilibrium in the absence
of a rising CO2 concentration forces another
out.
If the sun suddenly shut off, the earth would cool down quickly, and
get so cold that the greenhouse gases (most, if not all; certainly water vapor and CO2 - methane freezes at 91 degrees k or -182 deg C) that slow the loss
of heat to space would condense
out, making the
equilibrium surface temperature even colder.
That hasn't worked so far, and if anything that will probably become less useful as things (by things I mostly mean the oceans)
get further and further
out of thermodynamic
equilibrium.
It
gets knocked
out of this «
equilibrium» temporarily by some cloud and rain cover.
A person could figure
out that ratio, multiply BEST's sensitivity by it then consider the issue
of timing (transient versus
equilibrium sensitivity)... but why should someone have to go through that just to be able to
get a meaningful result from BEST's paper?
Now, if you can sort that
out, where you're
getting his quotes, maybe I've missed them, why you've totally ignored his scenario, why you're arguing against a straw man
of thermal
equilibrium of your own invention and brought in the totally irrelevant conduction through solids and all the arguments about the 2nd law with respect to that, maybe you could write something worth reading about his paper.
At its most basic, global warming is trivial, and beyond any doubt: add more energy to a system (by adding more infra - red absorbing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere), and the system
gets hotter (because, being knocked
out of equilibrium, it will heat up faster than it loses heat to space, up and until it reaches a new
equilibrium).