Given that the excess credit is heading for the financial markets, and not to the goods markets, we are
getting asset price inflation, but not goods price inflation.
Not exact matches
The question that I have at this point in the cycle is how low the Fed will
get before they
get scared about
inflation, and flatten out policy to see which effect is larger — deflation from overvalued housing
assets purchased with debt, or
inflation of goods and services
prices.
Monetary policy is loose, and as I have stated before, loose monetary policy typically ends in some excess, whether that excess is goods
price inflation, or
asset inflation, or perhaps a currency panic, where foreign creditors conclude that they will not
get paid back in anything near the terms that they expected when they originally lent.
But what seems clear is this: The fiscal sugar rush that's ginning up growth in the short run could be setting the stage for a letdown later, especially if the Federal Reserve feels compelled to take away the punch bowl before
inflation and
asset prices like stocks
get too out of hand.
Lately I've heard quite a lot of talk about how it's time to
get out of the market and that
asset prices are over-inflated and the cost of capital too cheap (the root of
asset inflation).