In the future, Orton says, improved storm - surge models could predict where flood zones should be drawn
given future sea level rise, which is now done nationally by the Federal Emergency Management Agency with data from past storms.
Not exact matches
Improving projections for how much ocean
levels may change in the
future and what that means for coastal communities has vexed researchers studying
sea level rise for years, but a new international study that incorporates extreme events may have just
given researchers and coastal planners what they need.
This
gives confidence in the predictions of the current generation of ice - sheet models which are used to forecast
future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting
sea -
level rise.»
Given that more than half a billion people live within a few meters of modern
sea level, he said punctuated
sea -
level rise poses a particular risk to those communities that are not prepared for
future inundation.
Its formula can show how much of a threat
sea -
level rise poses to a property,
giving homeowners, local governments and anyone else who uses the software a realistic picture of their
future risk.
Geologist Torbjörn Törnqvist of Tulane University, a co-author of the study, said that
given accelerating rates of
sea level rise, losses will likely continue long into the
future, and that even the best - designed river diversions won't be able to prevent more land loss.
Better estimates of Pliocene
sea levels will help geologists know how much of the ice sheets melted during that balmy era, Dowsett says, which may
give us a glimpse of our own climate
future.
At the same time policymakers need to know the
future of
sea -
level rise, and they need as robust a prediction as we can
give,» said Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton's Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs and the Princeton Environmental Institute and first author of the paper.
Kuhn, from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, added, «This
gives confidence in the predictions of the current generation of ice sheet models which are used to forecast
future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting
sea -
level rise.»
Given that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has a total
sea level equivalent of 3.3 m1, with 1.5 m from Pine Island Glacier alone4, marine ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for
future generations, with major changes in rates of
sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred years.
So while times like the Eemian or Pliocene or Miocene may be interpreted as a warning call in some respects, it is not really good to determine threshold policy targets, or
give substantial weight to answering big questions like
future sea level change, based solely on these analogs.
Thus,
given the delays in the system: both the ocean responding to CO (2), and the delays in humanity changing it's behavior, there is a risk of guaranteeing a
future deglaciation of Greenland before drastic changes are observed (with the attendant O (7m) rise in
sea level).
By «committed» or «locked in» warming or
sea level in a
given year, we refer to the long - term effects of cumulative anthropogenic carbon emissions through that year: the sustained temperature increase or SLR that will ensue on a time scale of centuries to millennia in the absence of massive and prolonged
future active carbon removal from the atmosphere.
No of course it doesn't, But if the past tells us that ice sheets can break up quickly and
sea levels rise quickly (for example) than this may
give us insight into likely
future system response.
Given the potential importance of West Antarctica to
future global
sea level and our current knowledge of glacier instability, why is there so much uncertainty about its
future?
Eric Rignot (NASA / JPL) one of the world's most prominent glaciologists, who is behind a landmark report revealing the unstoppable collapse of a large part of Antarctica,
gave a lecture at Victoria University of Wellington in February 2017, on
future sea level rise.
Given that arctic sea ice is already set to disappear given current levels of GHGs in the atmosphere, there is little chance that this feedback will contribute to an ice age any time in the foreseeable fu
Given that arctic
sea ice is already set to disappear
given current levels of GHGs in the atmosphere, there is little chance that this feedback will contribute to an ice age any time in the foreseeable fu
given current
levels of GHGs in the atmosphere, there is little chance that this feedback will contribute to an ice age any time in the foreseeable
future.
«
Given the large variability in discharge and SMB observed within the past decade and the potential for unaccounted positive feedback within the ice - climate system, however, the contribution of GrIS discharge to
future sea level rise remains highly uncertain.»