According to Tselioudis, representing this detail correctly in climate models is critical to determining how much warming will result from
a given increase of greenhouse gases.
Not exact matches
Given the
increasing demand for energy around the world and the dearth
of international action to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, we may be headed for a true global disaster.
A few
of the main points
of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An
increasing body
of observations
gives a collective picture
of a warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions
of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability
of models to project future climate has
increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
While a strong El Niño has
given global temperatures a boost, the bulk
of that heat comes from the manmade global warming driven by
increasing amounts
of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
«We know natural patterns contribute to global temperature in any
given year, but the very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact
of increasing greenhouse gases,» Stephen Belcher, the head
of the Met Office's Hadley Center, said.
Given that the trend in global SSTs has been attributed to
increases in
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (17 — 19), it follows that the best explanation for this ecosystem aberration is anthropogenic warming that has passed a threshold
of natural variability.
This is the difference between countries» pledged commitments to reduce emissions
of heat - trapping
greenhouse gases after 2020 and scientifically calculated trajectories
giving good odds
of keeping global warming below the threshold for danger countries pledged to try to avoid in climate talks in 2010 (to «hold the
increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels»).
Further to 12 and eric's response: I'm sorry if I wasn't clear enough: in the second sentence by Stefan that I quoted, «this» can only sensibly refer back to the whole
of the first sentence,
giving the reading That carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases are
increasing rapidly in the atmosphere due to human activity is a measured fact not even disputed by staunch «climate skeptics.
Here's a quote: «
Given the projected 21st century rise in
greenhouse gas concentrations and
increased fresh water input to the high latitude ocean, we can not rule out a significant slowing
of the Atlantic conveyor in the next 100 years.
At Jim Hansen's now famous congressional testimony
given in the hot summer
of 1988, he showed GISS model projections
of continued global warming assuming further
increases in human produced
greenhouse gases.
The IPCC 2001 report states «Several recent reconstructions estimate that variations in solar irradiance
give rise to a forcing at the Earth's surface
of about 0.6 to 0.7 Wm - 2 since the Maunder Minimum and about half this over the 20th century... All reconstructions indicate that the direct effect
of variations in solar forcing over the 20th century was about 20 to 25 %
of the change in forcing due to
increases in the well - mixed
greenhouse gases.»
In the meantime, it
gives clear insights into what scientists see happening to the planet's climate as human industrial activities, as well as land - use changes, pump
increasing amounts
of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases into the air.
Increasing greenhouse gasses have a direct effect on the probability distribution
of surface temperatures at any
given location.
In 2006, the European Union (EU), which consists
of 27 members, committed to reducing its global warming emissions by at least 20 percent
of 1990 levels by 2020, to consuming 20 percent
of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, and to reducing its primary energy use by 20 percent from projected levels through
increased energy efficiency.1 The EU has also committed to spending $ 375 billion a year to cut
greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.2 The EU is meeting these goals through binding national commitments which vary depending on the unique situation
of a
given country but which average out to the overall targets.
The IPCC statement that most
of the observed
increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations» is very much dependent on what weighting was
given to natural (mainly solar) forcing over this period.
They generally use correlations between the response
of climate models to
increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and a quantity in principle observable in the present climate (e.g., an amplitude
of natural fluctuations) to constrain ECS
given measurements
of the present - day observable.
For instance, US Senator James Imhofe
of Kansas called climate change «the greatest hoax ever» (Johnson, 2011) To claim that climate change science is the greatest hoax ever is at minimum, if not a lie, reckless disregard for the truth
given the number
of prestigious scientific organizations that have publicly supported the consensus view, the undeniable science supporting the conclusion that if
greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere some warming should be expected, the clear link between rising
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and
increases in fossil fuel use around the world, as well undeniable
increases in warming being that have been experienced at the global scale.
The
increased temperature results in
increased emissions (to the 4th power
of T) to tend restore the energetic balance — if ever an imbalance existed
given the temperature that
greenhouse gases are emitted at.
While what I have described is a bit simplistic, it
gives the gist
of why the CO2 emissions are significant: not only is CO2 a
greenhouse gas, but its effect causes other significant changes to take place, such as
increased uptake
of water vapour into the atmosphere.
They do not know with precision how much a
given quantity
of emissions will lead to
increased concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
While there have been negotiations under way on the new agreement, there has also been an attempt to
increase national commitments on
greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions reductions in the short - term because mainstream science is telling nations that much greater reductions in emissions are necessary in the next few years to maintain any hope
of keeping warming below 20 C, a warming limit that all nations have agreed should not be exceeded to
give some hope
of preventing catastrophic warming.
CO2 is a
greenhouse gas, and for a
given increase in opacity the outgoing radiation to space will decrease at a
given temperature (which has been observed in studies
of radiant spectra).
Firstly, we know more about how rising temperatures will reduce the effectiveness
of carbon sinks: the science now tells us that for any
given level
of emissions, concentrations
of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and temperatures will
increase by more than the RCEP report anticipated.
So, if we take what the best science
gives us, we find that pretty close to half
of the warming that is currently indicated by the extant global temperature datasets may be from influences other than anthropogenic
greenhouse gas increases — perhaps a bit less, perhaps a bit more.
We will be able to
give probabilistic estimates
of the climate's transient sensitivity to
greenhouse gas increases and will have an improved understanding
of the response
of sea ice, precipitation, and temperature extremes to warming.
The reason the air and water are warmer than they would be with no
greenhouse gases (and thus have
increased radiation both directions) is that the lapse rate combined with the high altitude
of outgoing radiation to space
gives a higher near surface temperature than otherwise.
As the «2 °C threshold» came to define the global climate effort, it became common to characterize any
given emissions pathway or
greenhouse gas budget by its probability
of causing a temperature
increase of 2 °C or more.
First, there is an
increase of greenhouse gases from 1970 to 1996 that
gives rise to recognizable bands in the observed spectrum.
While these uncertainties prevent the establishment
of a high - confidence, one - to - one linkage between atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations and global mean temperature
increase, probabilistic analyses can assign a subjective probability
of exceeding certain temperature thresholds for
given emissions scenarios or concentration targets (e.g., Meinshausen, 2005; Harvey, 2007).
Increasing concentrations
of greenhouse gases are expected to induce temperature decreases and a contraction
of the upper atmosphere, resulting in a corresponding density decrease at a
given height.
Climate model simulations are used to predict how much warming should be expected for any
given increase in the atmospheric concentration
of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases.
«
Given our understanding
of both the climate system as embodied in the current range
of models, and the known forcings both natural and anthropogenic, it is very likely that not more than half
of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is due to causes other than the observed
increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations.»
Ahmedabad, India, leads the pack as cities in developing nations race ahead
of their richer counterparts in adopting eco-friendly transit solutions, according to the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP), which last week
gave the western Indian city its 2010 Sustainable Transport Award.The award has been
given out since 2005 to a city that best «uses transport innovations to
increase mobility for all residents, while reducing transportation
greenhouse [
gas] and air pollution emissions and
increasing cyclist and pedestrian safety and access.»