Finally he does put a figure on the contribution of CO2 and others to the total
glacial cycle at around half — the figure I have seen more recently is 40 %.
We recently extended this record to approximately 120,000 years BP in order to track vegetation change over a full
glacial cycle at millennial to orbital timescales.
Not exact matches
Bay mud consists of thick deposits of soft, unconsolidated silty clay, which is saturated with water; these soil layers are situated
at the bottom of certain estuaries, which are normally in temperate regions that have experienced cyclical
glacial cycles.
Now, using two deep cores collected
at two Ocean Drilling Program sites in the Southern Ocean, Jaccard and colleagues have reconstructed ocean records of productivity and vertical overturning reaching back a million years, through multiple
glacial - interglacial
cycles.
Patrick Crill, an American biogeochemist
at Stockholm University, says ice core data from the past 800,000 years, covering about eight
glacial and interglacial
cycles, show atmospheric methane concentrations between 350 and 800 parts per billion in
glacial and interglacial periods, respectively.
«The first step was to reconstruct the history of global mean temperatures for the last 784,000 years, using combined data from marine sediment cores, ice cores, and computer simulations covering the last eight
glacial cycles,» said Friedrich, a post-doctoral researcher
at IPRC.
«We started from scratch and she wanted to know
glacial cycles, rate of deforesting, solar variability — all of the issues that could impact climate and why I think that humans are the main driver of climate change,» he explained afterward
at a debriefing with colleagues
at a pub on Capitol Hill.
Having briefly glanced
at it, his main argument seems to come from overlaying the CO2 records
at the same stage of different
glacial cycles, and that seems quite hard to do, to me — William]
Predicted changes in orbital forcing suggest that the next
glacial period would begin
at least 50,000 years from now, even in absence of human - made global warming (see Milankovitch
cycles).
Huybrechts, P., 2002: Sea - level changes
at the LGM from ice - dynamics reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the
glacial cycles.
The combination of insolation
at high latitude, solar irradiance, cloud cover, and carbon dixoide concentrations all combine to influence
glacial cycles.
To understand the causes of
glacial cycles, I looked
at relevant data (northern polar circle summer insolation) and used the computer code by Laskar et al 1993 to compute future insolations.
Having briefly glanced
at it, his main argument seems to come from overlaying the CO2 records
at the same stage of different
glacial cycles, and that seems quite hard to do, to me — William]
The conclusion that they survived over
at least two
glacial cycles, where the amplitude of environmental change in the Arctic is quite large, suggests they have under natural conditions the ability to adapt / survive such changes.
That's believed to be a crucial causal link in Milankovitch - driven
glacial cycles, last I heard
at least.
When you look
at the changes in Arctic temps during the warming side of
glacial cycles, temps and co2 rise almost immediately.
Only this past year I've come to understand we are
at a climate high point, a sort of plateau, in the
glacial - interglacial
cycle.
It is true that during ice ages the oceans took up more CO2 and that is why there was less in the atmosphere, and during the warming
at the end of
glacial cycles that CO2 came back out of the ocean, and this was an important amplifying feedback.
So really it's the gain of the temperature - convection feedback that's
at stake, and if it were high enough to fully offset all radiative effects on temperature, there'd be some obvious symptoms — low natural variability and
glacial cycles perfectly correlated with insolation perhaps.
In the natural
cycle regarding long term natural climate change caused by Milankovitch
cycles,
at least for the past million years or so, the sensitivity response to changes is indicated to alter the global temperature by 6º Celsius between warm periods and
glacial periods.
But a major problem exists for the standard orbital hypothesis of glaciation: Late Pliocene and early Pleistocene
glacial cycles occur
at intervals of 40 ky (8 — 11), matching the obliquity period, but have negligible 20 - ky variability.
«We knew there were changes in carbonate chemistry of the surface ocean associated with the large - scale
glacial - interglacial
cycles in CO2 [levels], and that these past changes were of similar magnitude to the anthropogenic changes we are seeing now,» says study co-author William Howard, a marine geologist
at ACE.
Müller, C. Reconstruction of the paleontological conditions
at the Laptev Sea continental margin during the last two
glacial / interglacial
cycles based on sedimentological and mineralogical investigations.
However, the change in incoming solar radiation — insolation —
at this timescale is small, and therefore difficult to reconcile with the amplitude of the
glacial cycles.
Gerald Bond found evidence of cosmogenic isotope changes
at each of a long series of warming followed by cooling events (he has able to track 25 events through current interglacial Holocene and into the last
glacial period,
at which point he reached the limit of the range of the proxy analysis technique) which indicates a solar magnetic
cycle change caused the warming followed by cooling
cycle.
As part of ENSO
cycles such droughts come and go — and have been typical for the region for (
at least) all of the Holocene up to the Last
Glacial Maximum some 20,000 years ago, research shows.
See, for example, Richard A. Muller, «
Glacial cycles and orbital inclination,» Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBL - 35665 (1994), available
at http://www-physics.lbl.gov/www/astro/nemesis/LBL-35665.html.
We can see this ceiling temperature nailed every transition from
glacial to interglacial
cycle today
at least as far as temperature proxies in ice cores going back a million years are accurate.
One perfect storm, say a deep solar minimum, Milankovitch
cycle in the
glacial phase, continents arranged as they are today, and a supervolcano eruption all
at the same time would probably trigger another snowball earth episode which has happened a few times in the past few billion years.
Glacials happen when the 100,000 year Milankovitch orbital
cycle is such that summer irradiance in high northern latitudes is
at its lowest point — allowing the persistence of ice fields.
If solar was the only force
at play, and milankovich forcings were strong enough without feedbacks to control the
glacial cycle, then the SH and NH would have antiphased
glacial cycles.
Lindzen was only able to keep the «iris» ball in the air for as long as he did because prior to the advent of AIRS the upper troposphere was an especially hard place to get accurate measurements, and by completely ignoring paleoclimate, e.g. the conflict between the «iris» and the Pleistocene
glacial cycles, and the fact that prior to the Pleistocene higher CO2 levels led to temperatures that kept glaciers from existing
at all (the latter having been firmed up only recently, to be fair).
It does seem that the long - term cooling trend underlying the
glacial / interglacial
cycling flattened out
at about the time that the 41 - to - 100 kyr shift occurred.
CO2 as a feedback («lagging factor») in the
glacial cycles is not a contradiction of modern greenhouse theories or anthropogenic global warming theories
at all.
Re # 5 As far as I understand it (drawing on my recollections of a lecture Hansen gave here
at Yale a few weeks back), the actual net forcing associated with Milankovich
cycles is relatively small, but it tends to trigger massive feedbacks (e.g. polar ice expanding, lowering albedo, cooling, expanding more) that «snowball» into a
glacial period.
In the past
glacial cycles organisms and ecosystems responded to climate change by shifting geographical ranges and when unable to shift local populations died and
at times entire species became extinct.
«The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that
glacial - interglacial
cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation
at high northern latitudes [i.e., solar irradiance received].
First let's look
at how ice ages — the cold phases of
glacial cycles — work on Earth.
Such as another fascinating paper by Don J. Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus in the Deptment of Geology
at Western Washington University: «Solar Influence on Recurring Global, Decadal, Climate
Cycles Recorded by
Glacial Fluctuations, Ice Cores, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Historic Measurements Over the Past Millennium» — Hat tip to Anthony Watt's Watts Up with That.
At their most basic level,
glacial cycles are caused by gravity: the gravity of other planets in the solar system, which influence Earth's orbit around the Sun.
Anthropogenic warming has interrupted the
Glacial - Interglacial
cycle of the Quaternary (Ganopolski et al., 2016; Haqq - Misra, 2014) and there will be no coming Ice - Age n - 1000 years from now to reseal all of this volatile Carbon, as happened
at the end of each previous interglacial.