Scientists have suggested that similar formations in Sweden formed when the immense weight of
glacial ice forced sand and other loose material into fissures in underlying rocks.
Not exact matches
These
forces occur on Earth in
glacial ice as it flows due to gravity, and in space as icy satellite bodies, such as the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, respond to tidal
forces from their parent bodies.
It seems that after the climate cooled during the last
glacial period, disappearing habitat inland
forced brown bears toward the coasts, where they encountered polar bears shifted there by British - Irish
ice sheets.
The Laurentide
Ice Sheet, the major driving
force for ocean circulation during the
glacials, has also disappeared.
During the last
glacial maximum, Wiens explained, the weight of the
ice bent the Earth's crust,
forcing the plastic rock in the upper layer of the Earth's mantle to flow away from the loaded region.
«the last
glacial period is a good example of a large
forcing (~ 7 W / m ^ 2 from
ice sheets, greenhouse gases, dust and vegetation) giving a large temperature response (~ 5 ºC) and implying a sensitivity of about 3ºC (with substantial error bars).»
As we have discussed previously, the last
glacial period is a good example of a large
forcing (~ 7 W / m2 from
ice sheets, greenhouse gases, dust and vegetation) giving a large temperature response (~ 5 ºC) and implying a sensitivity of about 3ºC (with substantial error bars).
In some sense, the search for a theory of
glacial - interglacial cycles amounts to a search for the «rectifier» which turns the modulation of the amplitude of the seasonal
forcing into a rectified signal in global
ice volume.
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last
glacial maximum, what reduction in solar
forcing is used based on the increased Albedo of the
ice - sheets, snow and desert.
26 Paul W asked, «On the studies of sensitivity based on the last
glacial maximum, what reduction in solar
forcing is used based on the increased Albedo of the
ice - sheets, snow and desert.
Does this process run freely, or is it synchronized to some other
forcing — like Huybers & Wunsch propose for
ice ages in «Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene
glacial terminations»?
Although the primary driver of
glacial — interglacial cycles lies in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar energy driven by changes in the geometry of the Earth's orbit around the Sun («orbital
forcing»), reconstructions and simulations together show that the full magnitude of
glacial — interglacial temperature and
ice volume changes can not be explained without accounting for changes in atmospheric CO2 content and the associated climate feedbacks.
«the last
glacial period is a good example of a large
forcing (~ 7 W / m ^ 2 from
ice sheets, greenhouse gases, dust and vegetation) giving a large temperature response (~ 5 ºC) and implying a sensitivity of about 3ºC (with substantial error bars).»
At the last
glacial maximum (20,000 yrs ago),
forcings by
ice sheets, vegetation, greenhouse gases and dust loading are estimated to be around -7 W / m2, and that sustained a climate 5 to 6 degrees cooler than present.
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last
glacial maximum, what reduction in solar
forcing is used based on the increased Albedo of the
ice - sheets, snow and desert.
[Response: All
forcings are calculated by changing the boundary conditions (in this case the distribution of
glacial ice, and looking to see what the change in net radiation is while keeping everything else constant.
[Response: To pre-empt some mutual incomprehension, note that industrial CO2 rises are certainly an anthropgenic
forcing and not a response (see here and here), but clearly CO2 changes over
glacial - interglacial cycles is both a response (to Milankovitch - driven changes) and a
forcing (since the additional radiative
forcing from CO2 is about a third of that needed to keep the
ice ages as cold as they are — see here).
Once the
ice reaches the equator, the equilibrium climate is significantly colder than what would initiate melting at the equator, but if CO2 from geologic emissions build up (they would, but very slowly — geochemical processes provide a negative feedback by changing atmospheric CO2 in response to climate changes, but this is generally very slow, and thus can not prevent faster changes from faster external
forcings) enough, it can initiate melting — what happens then is a runaway in the opposite direction (until the
ice is completely gone — the extreme warmth and CO2 amount at that point, combined with left - over
glacial debris available for chemical weathering, will draw CO2 out of the atmosphere, possibly allowing some
ice to return).
Redistribution of C has acted as a positive feedback to orbitally -
forced glacial - interglacial variations (
ice ages)-- but this depends on some particulars and isn't necessarily a general feature applicable to every geologic age -LRB-?).
Other
forcings, including the growth and decay of massive Northern Hemisphere continental
ice sheets, changes in atmospheric dust, and changes in the ocean circulation, are not likely to have the same kind of effect in a future warming scenario as they did at
glacial times.
article, Hansen estimates that the radiative
forcing from all greenhouse gases together (
glacial - interglacial) is -2.6 + / - 0.5 W / m ^ 2, and
ice sheet albedo is -3.5 + / -1 W / m ^ 2.
We assess atmospheric versus oceanic influences on
glacial discharge at this location, using analyses of diatom geochemistry to reconstruct atmospherically
forced glacial ice discharge and diatom assemblage ecology to investigate the oceanic environment.
* It would take only a small further reduction in climate
forcing (less long - lived GHGs or whatever) to yield more
ice during the
glacial phase of
glacial - interglacial oscillations.
From the last
glacial max — CO2
forcing had about a 2W / m2 increase and
ice sheet albedo change amounted to some 25W / m2 less reflected SW..
---- Mayewski, 2016 http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/EGU2016-2567.pdf «The demonstration using Greenland
ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard - Oeschger (D - O) events, existed during the last
glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally
forced world.
«Changes in the CO2 and CH4 content have played a significant part in the
glacial - interglacial climate changes by amplifying, together with the growth and decay of the Northern Hemisphere
ice sheets, the relatively weak orbital
forcing»
And study authors found that 2 C to 5 C warming of local ocean waters with somewhat greater local air temperature increases was capable of flooding these basins in stages —
forcing Totten's
glacial ice to flow out into the Southern Ocean and provide significant contributions to sea level rise.
Overall, when taking a look at these newly realized
ice - sheet weaknesses, it's worth noting that the total heat
forcing impacting the world's ocean, air, and
glacial systems is now rising into a range that is much more in line with Middle Miocene values.
Second, the abstract admits that, «Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast - feedback climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1 °C for a 4 W m − 2 CO2
forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last
Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective» and also «
Ice sheet response time is poorly defined».
The reason why I think it's wrong is that in her calculation of ESS she takes the radiative
forcing caused by albedo changes (resulting from the massive change in
ice coverage between a
glacial and interglacial state) and assumes it to be a feedback on the CO2 induced temperature - change.
Re # 5 As far as I understand it (drawing on my recollections of a lecture Hansen gave here at Yale a few weeks back), the actual net
forcing associated with Milankovich cycles is relatively small, but it tends to trigger massive feedbacks (e.g. polar
ice expanding, lowering albedo, cooling, expanding more) that «snowball» into a
glacial period.
Because all 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios — except Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), which leads to the total radiative
forcing of greenhouse gases of 2.6 W m − 2 in 2100 — imply that cumulative carbon emission will exceed 1,000 Gt in the twenty - first century, our results suggest that anthropogenic interference will make the initiation of the next
ice age impossible over a time period comparable to the duration of previous
glacial cycles.»
According to Petit et al. [2] the same sequence of events in each
glacial termination involved «orbital
forcing (with a possible contribution of local insolation changes) followed by two strong amplifiers, greenhouse gases acting first, then deglaciation and
ice - albedo feedback».
The orbital
forcings of the
glacial interglacials were small but amplified by
ice albedo feedbacks and GHG feedbacks and I believe the models can come close to approximating most aspects of those cycles.
In some sense, the search for a theory of
glacial - interglacial cycles amounts to a search for the «rectifier» which turns the modulation of the amplitude of the seasonal
forcing into a rectified signal in global
ice volume.
Another way of saying this is to estimate ECS from the last
glacial - interglacial transition, the albedo change due to
ice sheet melting is taken as a
forcing rather than as a feedback.