The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report contained significant uncertainty in its projections for
glacier contributions to sea level rise over the course of the 21st century.
Not exact matches
The warming, melting and potential
contributions to sea level rise from
glaciers in Greenland and West Antarctica in the face of climate change has long since been a serious concern.
Since the 1990s, the retreat of
glaciers in Alaska has made a disproportionally large
contribution to global
sea -
level rise.
However, if as a consequence of shortening, the
glaciers are also flowing faster, then we would be seeing another (small)
contribution to sea level rise.
Berthier, E., Schiefer, E., Clarke, G.K.C., Menounos, B. & Remy, F.
Contribution of Alaskan
glaciers to sea -
level rise derived from satellite imagery.
Sea level rise due to ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant sea level rise contribution [2
Sea level rise due
to ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic
glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant
sea level rise contribution [2
sea level rise contribution [22].
With
glaciers thinning, accelerating and receding in response
to ice shelf collapse [20, 21], more ice is directly transported into the oceans, making a direct
contribution to sea level rise.
The reason it's valuable is that for all the recent discussion of fast dynamic
contributions to sea level rise, no one has looked at the
glacier dynamics that would be required
to accomplish it.
The
contribution from
glaciers and ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature
to mass loss (equivalent
to a rate of
sea level rise), based on observed data from 1963
to 2003.
«Alaskan and immediately adjacent Canadian
glaciers supply one of the largest measured glaciological
contributions to global
sea level rise (~ 0.14 mm yr - 1, equivalent
to new estimates from Greenland).
The IPCC projections of
sea level rise are based largely on the slow, steady and inexorable thermal expansion of the oceans (as water heats, its volume increases) with some additional
contributions from the melting of mountain
glaciers (almost all of which are expected
to be gone by mid century).
Their results yielded two surprises: The melt rate for
glaciers and ice caps outside Antarctica and Greenland made a smaller
contribution to sea -
level rise than had been estimated, and the melt rate in the Asian mountains, including the Himalayas, was dramatically lower: 4 billion tons annually versus up
to 50 billion.
«Nonetheless, Jacob and colleagues have dramatically altered our understanding of recent global (
glacier and ice cap) volume changes, and their
contribution to sea -
level rise,» Bamber wrote, referring
to study researcher Thomas Jacob of Colorado - Boulder.
«A semi-empirical approach
to projecting future
sea -
level rise» «Testing the robustness of semi-empirical
sea level projections» «Kinematic constraints on
glacier contributions to 21st - century
sea -
level rise» «
Contribution of Antarctica
to past and future
sea level rise» «Global
sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment» «Reconstructing
sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200
to 2100AD» «Global
sea level linked
to global temperature» «Upper limit for
sea level projections by 2100»
In fact, he said, ice flows from that
glacier alone account for a quarter
to a third of Antarctica's total
contribution to sea level rise.
What was the causal mechanism for the explosive
glacier melt
contribution to sea level rise during the 1920 - 1950 period, when anthropogenic CO2 emissions were flat and low?
The
glaciers of West Antarctica are already responsible for the majority of the Antarctic continent's
contribution to global
sea level rise, and if these
glaciers were
to completely collapse,
sea levels could
rise by at least four feet, potentially inundating coastal cities around the world.
Most of the current models of glacial ice melting (and
contribution to sea level rise) focus on ice melting and less than they need
to on the process of
glaciers falling apart in larger chunks such as ice bergs.
«Combining the evidence from ocean warming and mass loss of
glaciers we conclude that it is very likely that there is a substantial
contribution from anthropogenic forcing
to the global mean
sea level rise since the 1970s.»
The researchers behind the study recorded the progress of ice caps and
glaciers throughout the world over an eight - year period in order
to estimate their
contribution to sea -
level rise.
PIG already makes the largest
contribution to sea -
level rise of any single Antarctic
glacier and the fact that its bed increases in depth upstream for more than 200 km means there is the possibility of runway retreat that would result in an even bigger
contribution to sea level.»
Berthier, E., E. Schiefer, G. K. C. Clarke, B. Menounos, and F. Rémy, 2010:
Contribution of Alaskan
glaciers to sea -
level rise derived from satellite imagery.
Regionally differentiated
contribution of mountain
glaciers and ice caps
to future
sea -
level rise
Recent
contributions of
glaciers and ice caps
to sea level rise Thomas Jacob, John Wahr, W. Tad Pfeffer & Sean Swenson, Nature (2012) doi: 10.1038 / nature10847
The melting contributes
to about 1 % of the global
sea level rise — a small
contribution and only 3 — 4 % of the total
contribution from global
glaciers and ice caps.
Until recently, the
contribution of ice sheets
to sea -
level rise remained unknown and is still debated, but the current acceleration of
sea -
level rise is attributed
to heating of the oceans and melting of land
glaciers which is supported by measurements of ocean temperatures and the behavior of mountain
glaciers, the vast majority of which are retreating or exhibit signs of instability.
Land ice loss — especially from northern hemisphere
glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet — now exceeds thermal expansion in its
contribution to rising sea level.
Hay et al. (2015) argue that rates of
sea level rise between 1.0 and 1.4 mm yr - 1 close the
sea -
level budget for 1901 — 1990 as estimated in AR5, without appealing
to an underestimation of individual
contributions from ocean thermal expansion,
glacier melting, or ice sheet mass balance.
The scientists used satellite monitoring
to determine the
contribution of all land - based ice (except for Greenland and Antarctica's huge ice sheets)
to rising sea levels and found that the volume of ice melting into the
sea each year from ice caps and
glaciers was 100 cubic miles (or 417 cubic km).
``... the most profound contemporary changes
to the ice sheets and their
contribution to sea level rise can be attributed
to ocean thermal forcing that is sustained over decades and may already have triggered a period of unstable
glacier retreat.»
Ice mass loss of the marine - terminating
glaciers has rapidly accelerated from close
to balance in the 2000s
to a sustained rate of — 56 ± 8 gigatons per year, constituting a major fraction of Antarctica's
contribution to rising sea level.
Such solecisms throughout the IPCC's assessment reports (including the insertion, after the scientists had completed their final draft, of a table in which four decimal points had been right - shifted so as
to multiply tenfold the observed
contribution of ice - sheets and
glaciers to sea -
level rise), combined with a heavy reliance upon computer models unskilled even in short - term projection, with initial values of key variables unmeasurable and unknown, with advancement of multiple, untestable, non-Popper-falsifiable theories, with a quantitative assignment of unduly high statistical confidence
levels to non-quantitative statements that are ineluctably subject
to very large uncertainties, and, above all, with the now - prolonged failure of TS
to rise as predicted (Figures 1, 2), raise questions about the reliability and hence policy - relevance of the IPCC's central projections.
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides estimates of the cryospheric
contributions to the acceleration of
sea -
level rise, including Greenland, Antarctica, and small ice caps and mountain
glaciers (22), although these measurements only start in 2002.
The
glaciers of West Antarctica are already responsible for the majority of the Antarctic continent's
contribution to global
sea level rise.
However, mass balance observations are needed for estimating the
contribution of
glacier melt
to sea level rise, so are discussed further in Chapter 11.