Systematic investigations of
glacier mass balance started after 1945, so these records are shorter than the instrumental climate records normally available in the vicinity.
Both have been the key to maintaining the extensive annual fieldwork program that is required to measured and report
glacier mass balance.
Marshall's work is part of the seasonal and annual tracking of
glacier mass balance by the federal government to help determine future water supply in major rivers.
And at the recent Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Bill Lau of NASA drew attention to another way in which soot can affect
glacier mass balance.
But the World Glacier Monitoring Service has a graph of
glacier mass balance to 2009 now available.
Since 1984, annual
glacier mass balance measurements have been conducted on 8 glaciers by the North Cascades Glacier Climate Project (NCGCP).
No single glacier is representative of all others; thus, to understand the causes and nature of changes in
glacier mass balance throughout a mountain range it is necessary to monitor a significant number of glaciers (Fountain et al., 1991).
Why is it that countries of this region that depend so heavily on the water coming from the Himalayas, and several other implications of healthy
glacier mass balance, have just not carried out any work in this area.
The annual
glacier mass balance record below indicates that the response of annual balance is quite similar for each glacier.
The map at right indicates the location of the glaciers (green circles) where we monitor annual
glacier mass balance.
The study interval 1984 - 2000 began in a period of negative
glacier mass balance, extending that dominated the 1975 - 1994 interval (Pelto, 1996; Krimmel, 1994).
Although, in the tropics,
glacier mass balance responds sensitively to changes in precipitation and humidity (see Lemke et al., 2007, Section 4.5.3), the fast glacier shrinkage of Chacaltaya is consistent with an ascent of the 0 °C isotherm of about 50 m / decade in the tropical Andes since the 1980s (Vuille et al., 2003), resulting in a corresponding rise in the equilibrium line of glaciers in the region (Coudrain et al., 2005).
Bradley, R.S. and England, J., 1978: Influence of volcanic dust on
glacier mass balance at high latitudes.
The Finnish Meteorological Institute has participated in a study that tested an inversion - type method for calculating
glacier mass balance for the first time.
«(F) the cryosphere, including effects on ice sheet mass balance, mountain
glacier mass balance, and sea - ice extent and volume;
Figure 7 illustrates the long term impact of declining snowpack on North Cascade
glacier mass balance.
A number of papers have examined the relationship of Pacific Northwest
glacier mass balance to atmospheric circulation indices (McCabe and Fountain, 1995; Hodge et al., 1998; Bitz and Battisti, 1999; Pelto and Miller, 2001).
To determine if these key climate indices could be useful for forecasting
the glacier mass balance the mass balance records from North Cascade glaciers were correlated with two PDO and MEI (Bitz and Batisti 1999; Hodge et al., 1998; Pelto and Miller, 2003).
With more than twenty years of glaciers from ten different glaciers we have tested a forecasting tool for
glacier mass balance.
As predictors of
glacier mass balance positive MEI values, El Nino, and warm phase PDO's favor negative balances, and cool phase PDO's and negative MEI values, La Nina, favor positive annual balances.
This years forecast issued May 1 is for negative
glacier mass balance.
In much the same way that the seasonal forecasts for the number of hurricanes is determined from a suite of indicators, this seems to be the most reasonable approach for
glacier mass balance forecasting.
If PDO is positive and ENSO is negative
glacier mass balance will be negative on South Cascade Glacier.
But, as I've pointed out a number of times now,
those glacier mass balance estimates are produced entirely independently of other factors and global sea level rise observations — they aren't derived from inverse modelling.
If you want to understand the uncertainty in
glacier mass balance estimates you need to look at the individual research papers dealing with those topics.
However, I would keep in mind the fact that over a decade's time, we have seen more than a doubling of the rate of loss of mass balance in Greenland, a tripling in icequakes, the warming of the West Antarctic Peninsula resulting in the acceleration of glaciers, the accelerating loss of global
glacier mass balance, etc..
The overall global
glacier mass balance trend is shown on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NDIS) graph here.
Hence the increasingly negative
glacier mass balance record that you are familar with.
This paper briefly reviews the current state of science regarding historical trends in hydrologic variables, including precipitation, runoff, tropospheric water vapor, soil moisture,
glacier mass balance, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and growing season length.
The glacier mass balance record in alpine regions does indicate a steepening of the gradient.
To get a sense of what is happening worldwide, you can check the global
glacier mass balance chart at the bottom of this page:
Reducing the pollution will significantly reduce the rate at which
glacier mass balance is lost in the Himalayas.
In addition to adding mass to a glacier, precipitation has an indirect effect on
glacier mass balance by changing the amount of sunlight the glacier absorbs.
Lie, and S.O. Dahl, 2000: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation reflected in Scandinavian
glacier mass balance records?
In commenting on their findings, the three researchers write that «the large number of stable glacier termini and glacier advances is influenced by positive
glacier mass balances in the central Karakoram during the last decade,» citing Gardelle et al. (2012, 2013) and Kaab et al. (2012), which they indicate is «induced by increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer temperatures since the 1960s,» citing Archer and Fowler (2004), Williams and Ferrigno (2010), Bolch et al. (2012), Yao et al. (2012) and Bocchiola and Diolaiuti (2013).
Scientists Rebuke Claims Of Human Control Over Glacier Mass Balance «Natural climate variability still emerges as the key deciding element governing the Himalayan
glacier mass balances.»
For example, analyses of
glacier mass balances, volume changes and length variations along with temperature records in the western European Alps (Vincent et al., 2005) indicate that between 1760 and 1830, glacier advance was driven by precipitation that was 25 % above the 20th century average, while there was little difference in average temperatures.
Not exact matches
In a recent study, Mathias Trachsel (Dept. of Biology, University of Bergen) and Atle Nesje (Dept. of Earth Science, University of Bergen and Uni Research Climate) used simple statistical models to assess and quantify the relative importance of summer temperature and winter precipitation for annual
mass balances of eight Scandinavian
glaciers.
Marzeion, B., A. H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer, 2012: Past and future sea - level change from the surface
mass balance of
glaciers.
Evidence from glacial advance / retreat (e.g. the evidence from tropical Andean
glaciers you cite above) is often difficult to interpret, because glacial
mass balance represents in general a subtle competition between the influences of ablation (determined by changes in temperature thresholds reached) and accumulation (determined by changes in humidity and precipitation).
Nearly every
glacier has a negative
mass balance.
Negative
mass balances on tributary
glaciers can lead to thinning of the
glaciers and ice shelves.
Isabella Velicogna can use that information to «study the
mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and
glaciers worldwide, in response to climate warming.»
Mt Hood's 11
glaciers declining by more than 50 % of their
mass balance just since I've become an adult.
The results show the northern Greenland
glaciers to be close to
balance yet losing
mass.
As for precipitation, [Moelg and Hardy, 2004] tentatively conclude that the
glacier might be in positive
mass balance if snowfall were increased to its 1880 maximum rate, even if temperature is held fixed at its present value.
The situation regarding
glaciers on Mt. Kenya is probably more complicated than just a question about temperature — changes in precipitation pattern will also affect their
mass balance.
Overall, I estimate the
mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet to be about -80 + / -10 cubic km of ice per year in 2000 and -110 + / -15 cubic km of ice per year in 2004, i.e. more negative than based on partial altimetry surveys of the outlet
glaciers.
Re # 9 Tad Pfeffer you say: «The bottom line for me is that
glacier dynamics is a very important and unresolved issue (and let's not forget surface
mass balance — it hasn't gone way and it's not small).
An unusually wet decade around 1880 put the
glacier into strongly positive
mass balance, bulking up its
mass.