The phrase
"glacier runoff" refers to the water that comes from a glacier as it melts.
Full definition
The forecast thus is given at the start of the melt season and provides an assessment of the amount
of glacier runoff that will be generated.
Eventually the resulting decline in glacier extent reduces the area available for melting causing a decrease
in glacier runoff.
The initial response is an increase in glacier melt rate
enhancing glacier runoff, while the glacier extent is still substantial in comparison to previous size.
As a glacier retreats its area available for melting declines and so
does glacier runoff in the summer.
A mass balance forecast is valuable as it identifies the amount
of glacier runoff that will be produced, which in turn will be key to water management decisions.
There are two changes
in glacier runoff that occur as a result of warming and enhanced glacier melt.
«Thus,
annual glacier runoff volume typically increases until a maximum is reached, often referred to as «peak water.»»
Even worse, loss of
summer glacier runoff will mean a collapse of rice and wheat agriculture in the northwest of the country as Himalayan glaciers continue to melt (current estimates are as high as 80 % loss within 30 years, and runoff is already in decline).
There is a threshold of glacier extent reduction dependent on the magnitude of ablation rate increase, where
glacier runoff declines, the few examples suggest this is in the 10 - 20 % areal extent loss.
The Canon del Plata hydropower project would experience a decrease from 1540 gigawatt - hours to 1250 gigawatt - hours for a 50 %
glacier runoff reduction and decline to 970 gigawatt - hours for a 100 % glacier loss (Vergara et.
Unlike non-glacier runoff,
glacier runoff correlates better with temperature than precipitation, due to the dominant role of glacier melt compared to precipitation in summer runoff from glacierized basins.
Downstream of these stations are 14 additional dams on the Columbia River each tapping this
same glacier runoff for hydropower.
Examination of recent changes in
glacier runoff indicate several frequent responses, highlighted by comparison of glaciated and unglaciated basins in North America (Fountain and Tangborn, 1985; Fleming, 2005; Pelto, 2008).
This seasonal variation characteristic mitigates low flow intervals and
makes glacier runoff a valuable water resource for hydropower (Fountain and Tangborn, 1985).
Glacier change and
glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin, the source region of Yangtze River in western China.
On the Yangtze 14 additional dams to the Three Gorges project are proposed that would take advantage of the
existing glacier runoff time and again.
Annual glacier runoff is highest in warm, dry summers and lowest during wet, cool summers, further providing a balance to summer runoff (Fountain and Tangborn, 1985; Hock et al., 2005).
Tajikistan is has plans to increase hydropower by several hundred percent, increasing the importance
of glacier runoff.
As glacier area is lost there will be a long term decline
in glacier runoff and alpine streamflow during the melt season.
«About 1.3 billion people live in the watersheds that get
some glacier runoff, but not all of those people depend only on the water from those watersheds, and not all the water in those watersheds comes from glaciers.
In several basins a decline of more than 20 % in glacier area has led to a decrease in
glacier runoff (Pelto, 2008; Stahl and Moore, 2006).
The Artesonraju Glacier is an example of how sought after
the glacier runoff is.
This is also the reason for the strong diurnal nature of
glacier runoff.
This glacier runoff is best determined by direct measurement of ablation on glaciers.