There has been no increase in
global air temperature since 1998, which was affected by the oceanographic El Niño event.
Not exact matches
The map below shows the observed change in
global near - surface
air temperature since 1900.
The former is likely to overestimate the true
global surface
air temperature trend (
since the oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend,
since the
air temperature over the ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the ocean
temperature.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1
Global satellite observations show the sea surface
temperature (SST) increasing
since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net
air — sea heat flux Q decreases.
The study puts a widely reported «hiatus» in
global surface
air temperatures since 1998 into context.
This was one of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the
global - average surface
air temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady
since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
As far as this historic period is concerned, the reconstruction of past
temperatures based on deep boreholes in deep permafrost is one of the best past
temperature proxies we have (for the
global regions with permafrost — polar regions and mountainous regions)-- as a signal of average
temperatures it's even more accurate than historic direct measurements of the
air temperature,
since the earth's upper crust acts as a near perfect conservator of past
temperatures — given that no water circulation takes place, which is precisely the case in permafrost where by definition the water is frozen.
From the abstract: «Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth's
global average surface
air temperature has remained more or less steady
since 2001.»
The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface
air temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 °C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed
since 2001.
The former is likely to overestimate the true
global surface
air temperature trend (
since the oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend,
since the
air temperature over the ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the ocean
temperature.
Since 1950, it has been found that the
global diurnal
temperature range (DTR), the difference between the minimum
temperature (Tmin) and the maximum
temperature (Tmax) of daily surface
air temperature, has been temporally decreasing in several places all over the world.
The annual anomaly of the
global average surface
temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near - surface
air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010 average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest
since 1891.
Bob Carter of James Cook University in Australia wrote an article in 2006 saying that there had been no
global warming since 1998 according to the most widely used measure of average global air temperatures... [and] David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was
global warming
since 1998 according to the most widely used measure of average
global air temperatures... [and] David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was
global air temperatures... [and] David Whitehouse of the
Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was
Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was wrong.
Since then there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a
global tas (
temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination of tas (land) and SST oceans, meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
Science: Models have successfully reproduced
global temperatures since 1900, by land, in the
air and the oceans.
But what can be seen above is that half of all man - made CO2 has been put into the
air since 1975, and that matches the one - degree F
global temperature increase
since 1975 rather well.
The IPCC report and its publicity statements deliberately distort the continued ocean
temperature rise by conflating it with «
global warming» when it is merely the transfer of
air heat into the oceans from the
temperature rise prior to 1998, not CO2 induced
air warming
since 1998.
So we'll assume that the
global surface
air temperature trend
since 1984 has been one of 0.20 °C per decade warming.
The primary ways to monitor
global average
air temperatures are surface based thermometers (
since the late 1800s), radiosondes (weather balloons,
since about the 1950s), and satellites measuring microwave emissions (
since 1979).
Truth n ° 1 The Mean
Global Temperature has been stable since 1997, despite a continuous increase of the CO2 content of the air: how could one say that the increase of the CO2 content of the air is the cause of the increase of the t
Temperature has been stable
since 1997, despite a continuous increase of the CO2 content of the
air: how could one say that the increase of the CO2 content of the
air is the cause of the increase of the
temperaturetemperature?
The
global SST show mostly similar trends to those of the land - surface
air temperature until 1976, but the trend
since 1976 is markedly less (Table 2.1).
I quote: ``...
since 1880 the only one period where
Global Mean
Temperature and CO2 content of the
air increased simultaneously has been 1978 - 1997.»
The slowdown or «hiatus» in warming refers to the period
since 2001, when despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, Earth's
global average surface
air temperature has remained more or less steady, warming by only around 0.1 C.
[Note 1:
since 1880 the only one period where
Global Mean
Temperature and CO2 content of the
air increased simultaneously has been 1978 - 1997.
The Mean
Global Temperature has been stable since 1997, despite a continuous increase of the CO2 content of the air: how could one say that the increase of the CO2 content of the air is the cause of the increase of the t
Temperature has been stable
since 1997, despite a continuous increase of the CO2 content of the
air: how could one say that the increase of the CO2 content of the
air is the cause of the increase of the
temperaturetemperature?
Subsurface ocean warming explains why
global average
air temperatures have flatlined
since 1999, despite greenhouse gases trapping more solar heat at the Earth's surface.
The difference in trend between
global SST and
global land
air temperature since 1976 does not appear to be significant, but the trend in NMAT (despite any residual data problems) does appear to be less than that in the land
air temperature since 1976.
Global Analysis of Sea Surface
Temperature, Sea Ice, and Night Marine
Air Temperature Since the Late Nineteenth Century.
3
Global Warming Defined
Global Warming Is The Increase In The Average
Temperature Of The Earth's Near - surface
Air And Oceans
Since The Mid-20th Century And Its Projected Continuation.
Armchair detectives might call it the case of Earth's missing heat: Why have average
global surface
air temperatures remained essentially steady
since 2000, even as greenhouse gases have continued to accumulate in the atmosphere?
Global Warming Is The Increase In The Average
Temperature Of The Earth's Near - surface
Air And Oceans
Since The Mid-20th Century And Its Projected Continuation.
Rayner, N. A.; Parker, D. E.; Horton, E. B.; Folland, C. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Rowell, D. P.; Kent, E. C.; Kaplan, A. (2003)
Global analyses of sea surface
temperature, sea ice, and night marine
air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys.
Even before Indiana's top enforcer of federal and state environmental regulations was advising coal companies on how to continuing polluting our
air and water, it appears that denial of basic climate science is the state's official position on
global warming — Indiana's 2011 «State of the Environment» report rehashes tired climate denier arguments such as
global temperature records having «no appreciable change
since about 1998.»
Five - year averaging reduces differences among
temperature datasets, showing that
since the mid-1970s the
global surface
air temperature has on average increased by 0.1 °C every five to six years, although the rate of warming, viewed from a five - year perspective, has not been steady.
In fact Australian and
global average surface
air temperature has remained more or less steady
since 2001 (e.g. Nature Climate Change, volume 4, pages 222 - 227).
«And
since it has long been known that the DTR has declined significantly over many parts of the world as mean
global air temperature has risen over the past several decades (Easterling et al., 1997), it can be appreciated that the
global warming with which this DTR decrease is associated (which is driven by the fact that
global warming is predominantly caused by an increase in daily minimum
temperature) has likely helped to significantly reduce the CHD mortality of the world's elderly people.»
Global Warming: Overview and Causes
Global Warming, the general increase in the earth's near - surface
air and ocean
temperatures, remains a pressing issue in a society that has expanded its industrial use
since the mid-twentieth century.
«The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface
air temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 degree Celsius, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed
since 2001,» wrote Australian researcher led by Matthew England of the University of New South Wales.
In contrast,
since the mid 1970's the strong La Ninas have peaked closer to NH winter during a period when
global mean surface
air temperatures have overall been rising slightly.
Greenland surface
air temperature trends, including at the Summit site, have not shown persistent warming
since 1930 in contrast to
global average surface
temperature (23).
As Media Matters has noted, the IPCC's 2007 «Synthesis Report» concluded that» [w] arming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in
global average
air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising
global average sea level» and that» [m] ost of the observed increase in
global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [defined in the report as a» > 90 %» probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [human - caused] GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.»
Global average
air temperatures have increased relatively slowly
since a high point in 1998 caused by the ocean phenomenon El Niño, but observations show that heat is continuing to be trapped in increasing amounts by greenhouse gases, with over 90 % disappearing into the oceans.
Using computer climate models, climatologists have established that the recent trend of an increasing
global average
air temperature, especially
since the mid-20 th century, is unprecedented and unnatural.
Global analyses of sea surface
temperature, sea ice, and night marine
air temperature since the late nineteenth century.
So if 1 % of the heat from
global warming is manifested in
air temperatures, and 93 % in manifested in ocean
temperature changes according to the IPCC, why do you think it is up to «tom0mason» to «prove» that the oceans are the control knob,
since he is just reaffirming what even the IPCC already effectively says?