Moreover, epoch superposition analysis of Forbush decreases reveals no detectable albedo response to cosmic ray decreases, thereby placing an upper limit on the possible influence of cosmic ray variations on
global albedo of 0.0029 per 5 % decrease.
If we allow that all those clouds are cumulus with an albedo of 0.8 and that they block water with an albedo of 0.1, that translates to a change in
global albedo of 0.014.
Not exact matches
Whereas carbon levels can affect warming on a
global scale, the effects
of increased
albedo and poor evotranspiration would affect temperatures only on a regional level.
Such model included meteorological factors like levels
of aerosols, anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ozone, carbon dioxide, methane, and other items that influence
global temperature — the surface
albedo among them.
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and
albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor
of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps who has previously conducted similar research on the
global dimming effects
of aerosols.
Another positive feedback
of global warming is the
albedo effect: less white summer ice means more dark open water, which absorbs more heat from the sun.
Critics argue that
albedo modification and other «geoengineering» schemes are risky and would discourage nations from trying to reduce their emissions
of carbon dioxide, the heat - trapping gas that comes from the burning
of fossil fuels and that is causing
global warming by absorbing increasing amounts
of energy from sunlight.
Keith adds, however, that the few existing studies suggest
albedo modification could help ameliorate some effects
of global warming.
They tend to believe that as the planet warms, low - level cloud cover will increase, thus increasing planetary
albedo (overall reflectiveness
of the Earth), offsetting the increased greenhouse effect and preventing a dangerous level
of global warming from occurring.
In her
global maps
of Europa, Callisto and Ganymede, the color gradient represents the surface temperature — blue means colder and therefore, presumably a more reflectively surface (higher
albedo).
Takemura, T., et al., 2002: Single scattering
albedo and radiative forcing
of various aerosol species with a
global three - dimensional model.
Ice sheet
albedo forcing is estimated to have caused a
global mean forcing
of about — 3.2 W m — 2 (based on a range
of several LGM simulations) and radiative forcing from increased atmospheric aerosols (primarily dust and vegetation) is estimated to have been about — 1 W m — 2 each.
In addition, since the
global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to
albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition
of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect
of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
I was interested not so much in the forcing effect
of clouds themselves so much as the change in
albedo which might result from a change in the overall extent
of global cloud cover.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much
of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases
albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration
of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
While the local, seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (
of the order 30 W / m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the
global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like
albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force
global - mean temperature change.
Calculations as to the magnitude
of this effect (that is, how dust is needed to significantly decrease glacier
albedo) certainly have been done, though probably not on a
global basis.
On the possibility
of a changing cloud cover «forcing»
global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased
albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
I think that only illustrates the bizarre use
of the
global average and models that in effect suggest cutting down trees would increase
albedo and cool the planet.
Gavin disputes that the main driver
of the sea ice retreat is the
albedo flip, but we are seeing not only polar amplification
of global warming but positive feedback, which would not be explained simply by radiative forces and ocean currents.
Please note shortwave
albedo of Earth has large spatio - temporal variations, but its annual
global average is restricted to a narrow range, even if it is not determined by simple material constraints, but by an intricate interplay between many internal degrees
of freedom.
Your illogic is to think that this somehow would be some sort
of legitimate argument that the (inverse) cause and effect relationship between
albedo and
global temperature established by the laws
of physics is false.
Increasing the negative feedback, as might happen in the atmosphere if
global warming creates increased cloud cover (hence
albedo), can increase the amplitude
of the oscillations.
With respect to Mr. Best's post, which I may be unfairly implying is a good example, one
of the fallacious but clever debate manipulations utilized by CC deniers and (way too many) lukewarmers is to focus relentlessly (often inaccurately) on climatological research frontiers such as climate sensitivity, or relations between evaporation, cloudiness, and
global albedo.
In Hansen Nazarenko 2004, Hansen wrote that «Our estimate for the mean soot effect on spectrally integrated
albedos in the Arctic... is about one quarter
of observed
global warming.»
So for example deglaciation warmed
global mean temps by about 5 C over 10k years with a radiative forcing
of about 6.5 W / m2 (total
of both GHG increases and
albedo decreases).
(Orbital forcing doesn't have much
of a
global annual average forcing, and it's even concievable that the sensitivity to orbital forcing as measured in terms
of global averages and the long - term response (temporal scale
of ice sheet response) might be approaching infinity or even be negative (if more sunlight is directed onto an ice sheet, the
global average
albedo might increase, but the ice sheet would be more likely to decay, with a
global average
albedo feedback that causes warming).
Is there a point in
global warming where
albedo would suddenly increase instead
of decreasing?
http://www.springerlink.com/content/lm0024kv72t3841w/ «The simulated magnitude
of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud
albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (− 8.2 W m − 2) to counter
global mean radiative forcing from a doubling
of CO2 (3.3 W m − 2) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (− 4.2 W m − 2).
http://www.springerlink.com/content/9569172415150486/ Climate Dynamics Volume 37, Numbers 5 - 6 (2011), 915 - 931, DOI: 10.1007 / s00382 -010-0868-1
Albedo enhancement
of marine clouds to counteract
global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle G. Bala, Ken Caldeira, Rama Nemani, Long Cao, George Ban - Weiss and Ho - Jeong Shin
Global climate models have successfully predicted the rise in temperature as greenhouse gases increased, the cooling
of the stratosphere as the troposphere warmed, polar amplification due the ice -
albedo effect and other effects, greater increase in nighttime than in daytime temperatures, and the magnitude and duration
of the cooling from the eruption
of Mount Pinatubo.
«Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary
albedo, offsetting mean
global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average,
of the continents.
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the
global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect
of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
The melt
of the Greenland glaciers is accelerating at an incredible rate and it can't be long before the Arctic sea ice disappears altering
global albedo irrevocably.
This is what I get out
of it: the Arctic - ice -
albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but NET EFFECT, the ice loss and all these other related factors (some negative feedbacks) act as a positive feedback and enhance
global warming.
Subject
of some specific concern about
global warming because
of large temperature rises predicted for the arctic, and because
of some arctic - specific feedback effects (e.g. the
albedo feedback following loss
of arctic sea ice).
Global average temperature is lower during glacial periods for two primary reasons: 1) there was only about 190 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, and other major greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) were also lower 2) the earth surface was more reflective, due to the presence
of lots
of ice and snow on land, and lots more sea ice than today (that is, the
albedo was higher).
One could write a book that surveys the scientific assessments
of the causes
of global warming, including feedbacks (
albedo flip, etc.), that totally ignores public policy.
J Latham (1990), «Control
of global warming», Nature, vol 347, pp330 - 340; J Latham (2002), «Amelioration
of global warming by controlled enhancement
of the
albedo and longevity
of low - level maritime clouds», Atmospheric Science Letters, vol 3, pp52 - 58.
If part
of the result
of increased GHG's is increased cloudiness, leading to a higher SW
albedo, then the overall
global temperature need not increase, because the amount
of energy actually entering the system has been reduced.
The mechanism by which the effect
of oceanic variability over time is transferred to the atmosphere involves evaporation, conduction, convection, clouds and rainfall the significance
of which has to date been almost entirely ignored due to the absence
of the necessary data especially as regards the effect
of cloudiness changes on
global albedo and thus the amount
of solar energy able to enter the oceans.
as we can we may be able to influence
albedo on an ocean scale — and hopefully create a little bit
of global cooling.
Our observational studies (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011)
of the variations
of outward radiation (IR +
albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and global precipitation increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction of global net radiation (IR + Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rai
albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and
global precipitation increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction
of global net radiation (IR +
Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rai
Albedo) to space which is associated with increased
global or tropical - regional rainfall.
In the real world the most obvious and most common reason for an increase in the speed
of energy flow through the system occurs naturally when the oceans are in warm surface mode and solar input to the oceans due to reduced
global albedo is high as apparently occurred during the period 1975 to 1998.
In this new study, the researchers showed that increasing the
albedo of a 1m2 surface by 0.01 would have the same effect on
global temperature, over the next 80 years, as decreasing emissions by around 7 kg
of CO2.
Total
global snow / ice /
albedo effects
of course encompass far more than the Arctic sea.
The result is cooling oceans able to gradually absorb and lower atmospheric CO2, enabling restoration
of albedo at higher latitude / altitude, producing further slow
global cooling.
Cloud variations are obviously an important element on a
global scale, but the effects
of Arctic ice melting are important locally and also a non-trivial fraction
of global albedo feedbacks, which are a contributor to total feedback that is smaller than those from water vapor and probably from cloud feedbacks, but not insignificant.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0512170 Google scholar threw up this interesting paper on surface
albedo, and how much
of a
global impact there'd be from whitening
of urban structures (about the equivalent
of 10 ppm
of CO2 it seems).
For instance the earth's
global ocean already has an
albedo close to zero so greenhouse gases are limited there and because GHGs modus operandi is restricting radiative cooling and the ocean is still free to cool evaporatively there is no first order significant effect
of greenhouse gases over a liquid ocean.