Climatologists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City noted that the highest
global annual average surface temperature in more than a century was recorded in their analysis for the 2005 calendar year.»
Caution and suitable caveats should be used in using this paper as evidence that
the global annual average surface temperature «hiatus» of the past 18 years has been explained.»
Similarly, see Roger Pielke Sr. posts on «Global Average Surface Temperature» Especially: Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions — Post # 1 On The
Global Annual Average Surface Temperature Trend
What's more, there are several long - term records of
global annual average surface temperatures.
Not exact matches
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs.
annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the
annual cycle.
The
annual anomaly of the
global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the
average of the near -
surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010
average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century
average), and was the warmest since 1891.
During that same period,
average annual rainfall in New South Wales declined by 3.6 inches (92 millimeters).3 Scientists think the decline in autumn rainfall in southeast Australia since the late 1950s may be partly due to increases in heat - trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere.3, 14 Major bushfires over southeast Australia are linked to the positive phase of an ocean cycle called the «Indian Ocean Dipole» — when sea
surface temperatures are warmer than
average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to
global warming.15, 16
Observed (black) and predicted (blue)
global average annual surface temperature difference relative to 1981 - 2010.
Clearly, to use a single value (the
global average annual average surface temperature trend) to characterize
global warming is a naive approach and is misleading policymakers on the actual complexity of the climate system.
Over the last decade or so, the models have not shown an ability to predict the lack (or very muted) change in the
annual average global surface temperature trend.
As was widely covered in the media, 2014 saw the highest
annual average global surface temperature since records began, the report says:
And, of course, we do not need to
global climate models to run impact models with an
annual average increase in the mean
surface air temperature of +1 C and +2 C prescribed for the Netherlands.
The NOAA National Climatic Data Center's
annual summary posted on January 15 says: «The 2000 - 2009 decade is the warmest on record, with an
average global surface temperature of 0.54 deg C (0.96 deg F) above the 20th century
average.
The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has maintained
global average monthly and
annual records of combined land and ocean
surface temperatures for more than 130 years.
The researchers discovered a temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius in near -
surface air temperatures in the tropics leads to an
average annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent to one - third of the
annual global emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation combined.
The discussion of whether 2012 is the 8th, 9th 10th or 11th warmest
annual global average surface temperature is intellectually engaging (and a bit of a waste of the engaged intellect), but a more significant point is that the warm years since 1998 have all occured without a transient bump comparable to the one that 1998 recieved from the signifcant El Nino that occured.
How much warmer the globe has become compared to 1998 can only really be commented on after an El Nino influence on the
global average surface temperatures similar to the 1997 - 1998 El Nino occurs, and other transient or cyclical influences on the «
annual average» are considered.
ECS is the increase in the
global annual mean
surface temperature caused by an instantaneous doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 relative to the pre-industrial level after the model relaxes to radiative equilibrium, while the TCR is the temperature increase
averaged over 20 years centered on the time of doubling at a 1 % per year compounded increase.
Figure 1: Observed and predicted
global average annual surface temperature difference relative to 1971 - 2000.
Image: Phil Jones, University of East Anglia Graph:
Average global surface temperature -
annual (black dots) and decadal (blue band); IPCC 4th Assessment report 2007
Annual global surface air temperature anomalies from 1979 to 2017 relative to the annual average for the period 1981 -
Annual global surface air temperature anomalies from 1979 to 2017 relative to the
annual average for the period 1981 -
annual average for the period 1981 - 2010.
m in the atmosphere, which translates into a brightness temperature ~ 34C for a
global annual average, even higher than that of the
surface.
In the
surface data, e.g., this is the long range correlations in
annual averages, that would make some 60 stations globally enough for getting a good
global average, when we have thousands of them.
Record droughts in many areas of the world, the loss of arctic sea ice — what you see is an increasing trend that is superimposed on
annual variablity (no bets on what happens next year, but the five - to - ten year
average in
global temperatures, sea
surface temperatures, ocean heat content — those will increase — and ice sheet volumes, tropical glacier volumes, sea ice extent will decrease.
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs.
annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.
For an
annual - and area -
average warming exceeding Embedded Image in Greenland and Embedded Image in the
global average, the net
surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising
global -
average sea level by 7 m.
«Overall my best estimate of the 2014
annual global surface temperature anomaly is 0.626 + / - 0.05 C above the 1961 - 1990
average, making it likely to be the hottest year on record after the 0.547 C anomaly in 2010.»