Nations collectively to begin to reduce sharply
global atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols, with the goal of urgently halting their accumulation in the atmosphere and holding atmospheric levels at their lowest practicable value;
Not exact matches
This implies that risks are not too big or overarching (like resource scarcity, rising levels of
atmospheric CO2, or
global warming) but are more focused e.g. extreme weather, increased greenhouse gas
emissions from agriculture or from energy use, or a lack of fresh water.
Worldwide, carbon storage has the capability to provide more than 15 percent of the
emissions reductions needed to limit the rise in
atmospheric CO2 to 450 parts per million by 2050, an oft - cited target associated with a roughly 50 - percent chance of keeping
global warming below 2 degrees, but that would involve 3,200 projects sequestering some 150 gigatons of CO2, says Juho Lipponen, who heads the CCS unit of the International Energy Agency in Paris.
According to his calculations,
global infrared
emission would be 0.8 watts per square metre higher if all
atmospheric ice crystals contained lead compared with none.
A curious detail also shown by the study is a reduction in
atmospheric pollution from lead during the last few decades, which, as Lozano concludes, «suggests that the
global measures taken to reduce lead
emissions, such as the use of lead - free gasoline, have helped to reduce the levels of this metal in the atmosphere.»
During the early 2000s, environmental scientists studying methane
emissions noticed something unexpected: the
global concentrations of
atmospheric methane (CH4)-- which had increased for decades, driven by methane
emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture — inexplicably leveled off.
The researchers looked at a total of 34 different
global climate model outputs, encompassing different degrees of
atmospheric sensitivity to greenhouse gases and different levels of human
emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
In the new paper, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, Höglund - Isaksson estimated
global methane
emissions from oil and gas systems in over 100 countries over a 32 - year period, using a variety of country - specific data ranging from reported volumes of associated gas to satellite imagery that can show flaring, as well as
atmospheric measurements of ethane, a gas which is released along with methane and easier to link more directly to oil and gas activities.
As
emissions from human activities increase
atmospheric carbon dioxide, they, in turn, are modifying the chemical structure of
global waters, making them more acidic.
The work included data from a variety of sources, including national
emissions inventories kept by the United Nations,
global estimates of energy use and direct measurements of
atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and involved dozens of authors from institutes around the world.
An international team led by
atmospheric chemist Qiang Zhang of Tsinghua University in Beijing looked at
emissions data across 13
global regions for 2007, the last year comprehensive information was available.
Based on the data, the scientists conclude that «worldwide rice production is responsible for [about] 1 percent of
atmospheric methyl bromide and 4 percent of
atmospheric methyl iodide» and that «methyl iodide
emissions from rice paddies provide a sizable terrestrial source to the
global budget.»
If humanity does not act to reduce
global greenhouse gas
emissions,
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will continue to climb and Earth's average temperature will escalate.
Hi Andrew, Paper you may have, but couldn't find on «The phase relation between
atmospheric carbon dioxide and
global temperature» CO2 lagging temp change, which really turns the entire AGW argument on its head: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658 Highlights: ► Changes in
global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind changes in
global sea surface temperature ► Changes in
atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human
emissions.
To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation models to consider two scenarios of
global carbon
emissions: one where
atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5]
emission scenarios, respectively).
A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon
emissions,
atmospheric CO2,
global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.
Future
global temperature change should depend mainly on
atmospheric CO2, at least if fossil fuel
emissions remain high.
The total amount of carbon that would need to be diverted from being emitted into the atmosphere is stunning: Current
global atmospheric CO2
emissions total roughly 30 gigatons, or 30 billion metric tons per year.
Once
global carbon dioxide
emissions had been reduced to zero, some combination of
atmospheric decay and carbon dioxide extraction, probably partially offset by some level of carbon dioxide re-release from the worlds oceans, might possibly reduce the
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to comply with the NAAQS.
They also suggest that the documented 30 % increase in
global primary productivity over the 20th century has likely enhanced uptake of
atmospheric mercury, thereby practically offsetting increasing mercury
emissions.
Raymond Pierrehumbert, an Oxford University
atmospheric physics professor who believes cutting carbon dioxide
emissions is more urgent than cutting methane
emissions, said Howarth's research offers little new information about the role of natural gas production in
global warming.
The absolutely essential first step in reducing the
atmospheric concentration to 350 ppm is a total
global cessation of anthropogenic carbon
emissions.
# 22: I ask myself, if
global CO2
emissions and
atmospheric CO2 levels have exceeded the worst case scenario predicted by the IPCC # 4, for 2008, were is there any integrity in the statement,» We reconfirm the significance of the IPCC # 4 ″?
Ed Dlugokencky of NOAA, who confirmed a couple of weeks ago that recent increases in
atmospheric methane were continuing, tells me that the
emissions estimates are reasonable, but that the
global data is not yet consistent with a large and growing source of Arctic methane....»
The work is an estimate of the
global average based on a single - column, time - average model of the atmosphere and surface (with some approximations — e.g. the surface is not truly a perfect blackbody in the LW (long - wave) portion of the spectrum (the wavelengths dominated by terrestrial /
atmospheric emission, as opposed to SW radiation, dominated by solar radiation), but it can give you a pretty good idea of things (fig 1 shows a spectrum of radiation to space); there is also some comparison to actual measurements.
It reiterated the principle of «common but differentiated responsibilities» — which notes the historical responsibility of industrialized («Annex I») countries for virtually all
emissions leading to the increase in the
global atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses.
We collectively need to demand that there is no acceptable response to climate change other than strong
emission reductions, ensuring that
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are returned to 350ppm levels,
global temperature rise is kept (at the maximum) 2 °C and, even better, 1.5 °C — to do that, as was emphasized on numerous occasions, we need a F.A.B. climate deal: Fair, Ambitious, and (perhaps most importantly) Binding.
If we multiply that over ten years, and figure that the top billion or so of world population is responsible for the lion's share (say 80 %) of the
emissions, could we then conclude that, on average, every member of that top billion (presumably including all on this forum) had contributed the energy equivalent of one Hiroshima bomb (or more) toward
atmospheric global warming over the last decade?
A new study by Stanford University
atmospheric scientist Mark Jacobson has revealed that worsening air pollution and higher carbon dioxide
emissions go hand - in - hand - the results suggest intensifying
global warming will increase the number of smog - related deaths.
we use
global - scale
atmospheric CO2 measurements, CO2
emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in
global CO2 sources and sinks during the past 50 years.
More importantly, the
atmospheric methane flux from the Arctic Ocean is really small (extrapolating estimates from Kort et al 2012), even compared with
emissions from the Arctic land surface, which is itself only a few percent of
global emissions (dominated by human sources and tropical wetlands).
Of course, if you're serious about stabilizing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, achieving the American goal in 2020 is just step one in what would have to be a centurylong 12 - step (or more) program to completely decouple
global energy use from processes that generate heat - trapping
emissions.
And the reason those 21st century
emissions fail to make much of an impression on
global temperature is because the
atmospheric levels of GHG begin to decline when our
emissions are cut (the cut required depending on the gas in question).
Taking account of their historic responsibility, as well as the need to secure climate justice for the world's poorest and most vulnerable communities, developed countries must commit to legally binding and ambitious
emission reduction targets consistent with limiting
global average surface warming to well below 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and long - term stabilization of
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at well below below 350 p.p.m., and that to achieve this the agreement at COP15 U.N.F.C.C.C. should include a goal of peaking
global emissions by 2015 with a sharp decline thereafter towards a
global reduction of 85 percent by 2050,
Climate alarm depends on several gloomy assumptions — about how fast
emissions will increase, how fast
atmospheric concentrations will rise, how much
global temperatures will rise, how warming will affect ice sheet dynamics and sea - level rise, how warming will affect weather patterns, how the latter will affect agriculture and other economic activities, and how all climate change impacts will affect public health and welfare.
But of course the pace of the temperature trend also depends on the
global future
emissions outlook and on remaining uncertainties surrounding climate sensitivity — or the politically most relevant metric «Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), the amount of warming expected on a decades timescale after doubling of the
atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Syllabus: Lecture 1: Introduction to
Global Atmospheric Modelling Lecture 2: Types of
Atmospheric and Climate Models Lecture 3: Energy Balance Models Lecture 4: 1D Radiative - Convective Models Lecture 5: General Circulation Models (GCMs) Lecture 6:
Atmospheric Radiation Budget Lecture 7: Dynamics of the Atmosphere Lecture 8: Parametrizations of Subgrid - Scale Physical Processes Lecture 9: Chemistry of the Atmosphere Lecture 10: Basic Methods of Solving Model Equations Lecture 11: Coupled Chemistry - Climate Models (CCMs) Lecture 12: Applications of CCMs: Recent developments of
atmospheric dynamics and chemistry Lecture 13: Applications of CCMs: Future Polar Ozone Lecture 14: Applications of CCMs: Impact of Transport
Emissions Lecture 15: Towards an Earth System Model
Here, we've built on their principal 350
emissions pathway, updating it to capture the modest (and no doubt temporary) 2007 - 2009 downturn in
global emissions caused by the recent financial crisis, and adapting it to yield essentially the same outcome in terms of projected
atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Stabilizing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas
emissions will require a reduction in
global emissions of at least 80 % below 1990 levels by 2050.
To better determine the fate of the species in the face of climate change, the researchers analyzed a total of 34 different
global climate models, taking into account
atmospheric sensitivity to greenhouse gases and different levels of human greenhouse gas
emissions.
As a result,
global warming will continue to affect life on Earth for hundreds of years, even if greenhouse gas
emissions are reduced and the increase in
atmospheric levels halted.
Further, translating regional sulfate
emission into
global forcing isnt really appropriate, since
atmospheric sulfate has too short of an
atmospheric lifetime (owing to cloud and rain processes) to influence the
global radiation balance.
This is true because most mainstream scientists have concluded that the world must reduce total
global emissions by at the very least 60 to 80 percent below existing levels to stabilize GHG
atmospheric concentrations at minimally safe
atmospheric GHG concentrations and the United States is a huge emitter both in historical terms and in comparison to current
emissions levels of other high emitting nations.
By 2100,
global atmospheric CO2 levels reach 550 and 970 ppm under the lower and higher
emissions scenarios, respectively.
Global temperature change can in turn be linked both to concentrations of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (Table 1) and to accumulated carbon
emissions (Figure 1).»
The devotees of both sides of the mainstream climate debate i.e. on the one hand those who warn against the dangers of
global warming, which they attribute mainly to
atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide, and on the other those who assert that the theory of anthropogenic
global warming is a fraud, resort to hysteria when they sense that their ideas are under threat.
1) how
emissions affect the
atmospheric concentration (short and long term) 2) how
atmospheric concentration affects «
global climate»
global warming, climate change, fossil fuel
emissions, carbon isotopes, carbon 14,
atmospheric co2, industrial revolution, fossil fuels, environment, save the planet, anthropogenic effects, human activity
IPCC, fossil fuel
emissions,
atmospheric CO2, carbon dioxide,
global warming, climate change, resampling, bootstrap
If you are silly enough to contemplate a 2 ˚C rise, then just to have a 66 per cent chance of limiting warming at that point,
atmospheric carbon needs to be held to 400ppm CO2e and that requires a
global reduction in
emissions of 80 per cent by 2050 (on 1990 levels) and negative
emissions after 2070.