My reply: —
Global average atmospheric greenhouse - gas optical thickness is the measure of the infrared absorptive capacity of the atmosphere — that is, of the greenhouse effect.
Since about 1750, the release of CO2 from industrial and agricultural activities has resulted in
global average atmospheric CO2 concentrations that have increased from 278 to 390.5 ppm in 2011.
Chen and Tung are correct in linking the temperature of the Atlantic ocean, both at depth and surface, with
global average atmospheric temperature.
I suggested you that, the best way to proceed is that you and I compute the same physical quantities — for example for your favorite
global average atmospheric structure — and when we agreed on tau, Ed, Su, Eu, OLR, etc., then we start to analyze the relationships among them.
[2] Ferenc M. Miskolczi, «The stable stationary value of the Earth's
global average atmospheric greenhouse - gas optical thickness» E&E 21 (4): 243 - 262 (2010)
The growth rate of
global average atmospheric CO2 for 2000 — 2006 was 1.93 ppm y ^ -1 [or 4.1 petagrams of carbon (PgC) y ^ -1, Table 1].
Global average atmospheric CO2 rose from 280 ppm at the start of the industrial revolution (~ 1,750) to 381 ppm in 2006.
The model is analogue to: Increase in
global average atmospheric temperature (K) = Effect from CO2 (K / ppm CO2) * Increase in CO2 level (ppm CO2)
Not exact matches
The second simulation overlaid that same weather data with a «pseudo
global warming» technique using an accepted scenario that assumes a 2 - to 3 - degree increase in
average temperature, and a doubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Their findings, based on output from four
global climate models of varying ocean and
atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the
global average.
It is well - established in the scientific community that increases in
atmospheric CO2 levels result in
global warming, but the magnitude of the effect may vary depending on
average global temperature.
«(A) describe increased risks to natural systems and society that would result from an increase in
global average temperature 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the pre-industrial
average or an increase in
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations above 450 parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent; and
If humanity does not act to reduce
global greenhouse gas emissions,
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will continue to climb and Earth's
average temperature will escalate.
In February 2018, the
average atmospheric carbon dioxide level was 408 parts per million at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, site of National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
global greenhouse gas monitoring.
«The consensus is that a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 from its pre-industrial revolution value would result in an
average global temperature rise of (3.0 ± 1.5) °C.»
These rising
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to an increase in
global average temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much of which has been absorbed by the oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake of
atmospheric CO2 has led to major changes in surface ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
From the abstract: «Despite ongoing increases in
atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth's
global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001.»
The work is an estimate of the
global average based on a single - column, time -
average model of the atmosphere and surface (with some approximations — e.g. the surface is not truly a perfect blackbody in the LW (long - wave) portion of the spectrum (the wavelengths dominated by terrestrial /
atmospheric emission, as opposed to SW radiation, dominated by solar radiation), but it can give you a pretty good idea of things (fig 1 shows a spectrum of radiation to space); there is also some comparison to actual measurements.
If we multiply that over ten years, and figure that the top billion or so of world population is responsible for the lion's share (say 80 %) of the emissions, could we then conclude that, on
average, every member of that top billion (presumably including all on this forum) had contributed the energy equivalent of one Hiroshima bomb (or more) toward
atmospheric global warming over the last decade?
It seems to me, in my lay understanding, that climate change is likely to be expressed as increased
average global temperature plus increased mechanical energy in oceanic and
atmospheric currents.
Redistribution of heat (such as vertical transport between the surface and the deeper ocean) could cause some surface and
atmospheric temperature change that causes some
global average warming or cooling.
Taking account of their historic responsibility, as well as the need to secure climate justice for the world's poorest and most vulnerable communities, developed countries must commit to legally binding and ambitious emission reduction targets consistent with limiting
global average surface warming to well below 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and long - term stabilization of
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at well below below 350 p.p.m., and that to achieve this the agreement at COP15 U.N.F.C.C.C. should include a goal of peaking
global emissions by 2015 with a sharp decline thereafter towards a
global reduction of 85 percent by 2050,
On - shore deposits are affected by
atmospheric warming amplified to 2 or 3 times
average global warming.
The
global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 °C above its preindustrial level, and present
atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5 — 1 °C as equilibrium is re-established.
But «in order to explain the drop in
atmospheric growth rate of CO2, we would need an
average drop in
global temperatures of about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 ° C), but the temperatures only dropped by about one degree (0.9) Fahrenheit (0.5 °C) globally.»
The results confirm that
average global temperature is increasing, and that temperature and
atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years.
I can't believe I am saying this, as the media covergae of climate change is almost universally appalling BUT I think part of the problem is that we, as the scientific community allowed the message / meme to permeate that media that «warming» was purely an
atmospheric temperature phenomena to be assessed solely by
average global temperatures.
As a result, a trendless
global averaged Gaa [
atmospheric greenhouse effect] is displayed between 1991 and 2002 (Fig. 2).
Again, no significant trend of the
global averaged Gaa [
atmospheric greenhouse effect] is found from 2003 to 2014 (Fig. 2) because the enhanced warming effect over the western tropical Pacific is largely counteracted by the weakened warming influence on the central tropical Pacific.
The DICE model attempts to quantify how the
atmospheric concentration of CO2 negatively affects economic output through its impact on
global average surface temperature.
Your church can not correctly calculate the proper temperature of the planet's
average global atmospheric temperature.
Carbon dioxide measured at the 400 parts per million level at remote northern locations is a harbinger of
average global atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reaching 400 parts per million during the current decade.
Climate sensitivity is defined in terms of
global averages (there is only one number) but a GCM is fully time - dependent, three - dimensional simulation that typically includes
atmospheric and ocean processes.
«It is possible that an increase in concentration of
atmospheric gases which absorb the outgoing infrared radiation could result in a rise in
average global temperature,» William McCollam, Jr., then president of EEI, admitted to Congress in 1989.
Requires the President, if the NAS report finds that emission reduction targets are not on schedule or that
global actions will not maintain safe
global average surface temperature and
atmospheric GHG concentration thresholds, to submit a plan by July 1, 2015, to Congress identifying domestic and international actions that will achieve necessary additional GHG reductions.
«(A) describe increased risks to natural systems and society that would result from an increase in
global average temperature 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the pre-industrial
average or an increase in
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations above 450 parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent; and
-- In the event that the Administrator or the National Academy of Sciences has concluded, in the most recent report submitted under section 705 or 706 respectively, that the United States will not achieve the necessary domestic greenhouse gas emissions reductions, or that
global actions will not maintain safe
global average surface temperature and
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration thresholds, the President shall, not later than July 1, 2015, and every 4 years thereafter, submit to Congress a plan identifying domestic and international actions that will achieve necessary additional greenhouse gas reductions, including any recommendations for legislative action.
Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than
Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both
global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than
global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today.
And we also know that the correlation between
global average temperature and
atmospheric CO2 is statistically not very robust, so that something else must also «be at work» to cause the gradual warming (or «slow thaw», as you've dubbed it).
Global -
average atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide rose to 389 parts per million in 2010, 39 % higher than at the start of the industrial era in 1750.
The chart plots the absolute
global averages for both surfaces and
atmospheric temperatures since the major 1998 El Niño peak.
Figure 2:
Average global temperature (blue), Antarctic temperature (red), and
atmospheric CO2 concentration (yellow dots).
All else being equal, increases in
atmospheric carbon dioxide lead to warmer
global average surface temperatures.
They also conflate «surface
atmospheric average temperature» with «
global average temperature.»
The most recent empirical evidence clearly indicates that CO2 levels are not driving the
average atmospheric,
global and / or ocean temperatures dangerously higher.
In terms of ice age to interglacial periods there is about 10 C difference in
average global temperature [not ocean change in temperature - but
atmospheric].
We have heard that we will need to reduce
atmospheric CO2 to 350ppm and stabilize there, and that we are on track for a 2 degree increase in
global average temperatures by mid-century, which will be disastrous.
Thanks to humans, the earth was (since the 1990s) already experiencing
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in a realm not experienced on the planet since the Pliocene epoch, which was the period 2.6 to 5.3 million years ago that saw
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels between 350 and 405 parts per million and
average global temperatures that ranged between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius warmer than the climate of the 1880s.
Park, J. (2009), A re-evaluation of the coherence between
global -
average atmospheric CO2 and temperatures at interannual time scales, Geophys.
The researchers discovered a temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius in near - surface air temperatures in the tropics leads to an
average annual growth rate of
atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent to one - third of the annual
global emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation combined.