«The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface air temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 degree Celsius, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001,» wrote Australian researcher led by Matthew England of the University of New South Wales.
The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface air temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 °C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001.
Not exact matches
These shifts also have a profound effect on the
average global surface air temperature of Earth.
Global warming, the phenomenon
of increasing
average air temperatures near the
surface of Earth over...
This was one
of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the
global -
average surface air temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics
of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
Global average air temperature near the
surface is dominated by the ocean (because it covers two thirds
of the planet), particularly at low latitudes.
Sensor measurement uncertainty has never been fully considered in prior appraisals
of global average surface air temperature.
I think it's a mistake to refer to changes in
global average surface air temperatures as if they were definitive measures
of the change to the climate system.
Blue line is a five year running
average of HadCRUT
global surface air temperature (Huang 2000).
Global average surface air temperature is one of the most well - recognized metrics of contemporary climate change — hence the term «global warming&r
Global average surface air temperature is one
of the most well - recognized metrics
of contemporary climate change — hence the term «
global warming&r
global warming».
The annual anomaly
of the
global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the
average of the near -
surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010
average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century
average), and was the warmest since 1891.
The
global temperature records use a blend
of air and sea -
surface temperatures, while
global average temperatures from climate models typically use just
air temperatures.
Maps show projected change in
average surface air temperature in the later part
of this century (2071 - 2099) relative to the later part
of the last century (1970 - 1999) under a scenario that assumes substantial reductions in heat trapping gases (B1) and a higher emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in
global emissions (A2).
Internal variability can only account for ~ 0.3 °C change in
average global surface air temperature at most over periods
of several decades, and scientific studies have consistently shown that it can not account for more than a small fraction
of the
global warming over the past century.
And,
of course, we do not need to
global climate models to run impact models with an annual
average increase in the mean
surface air temperature of +1 C and +2 C prescribed for the Netherlands.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean
surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean
surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean
surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
One study estimates that there are likely to be places on Earth where unprotected humans without cooling mechanisms, such as
air conditioning, would die in less than six hours if
global average surface temperature rises by about 12.6 ° F (7 ° C).16 With warming
of 19.8 - 21.6 ° F (11 - 12 ° C), this same study projects that regions where approximately half
of the world's people now live could become intolerable.7
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated — by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing»
of the «rate»
of increase in
average ambient
global land and ocean
surface air temperatures over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term mean
of the 90s is also meaningless in terms
of the basic issue, and why the
average ambient increase in
global air temperatures over such a short term is by far the least important empirical indicia
of the issue.
Current
global average surface air temperature is warmer than that for all but a small fraction
of the past 11,300 years.
Hemispheric or
global averages of mean
surface air temperature are, therefore, largely determined by the
temperature of the continents (Fig. 4 and Fig. 7).
While he represents that this fault lies in inconsistency
of the predictions
of the models with a
global average surface air temperature time serties, the fault truely lies in our inability to statistically test the projections
of these models.
The evidence comes from direct measurements
of rising
surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean
temperatures and, indirectly, from increases in
average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes in many physical and biological systems.
It is not «conduction» but exchange
of radiation; if you keep your hands parallel at a distance
of some cm the right hand does not (radiatively) «warm» the left hand or vice versa albeit at 33 °C skin
temperature they exchange some hundreds
of W / m ² (about 500 W / m ²) The solar radiation reaching the
surface (for 71 %
of the
surface, the oceans) is lost by evaporation (or evapotranspiration
of the vegetation), plus some convection (20 W / ²) and some radiation reaching the cosmos directly through the window 8µm to 12 µm (about 20 W / m ² «
global»
average); only the radiative heat flow
surface to
air (absorbed by the
air) is negligible (plus or minus); the non radiative (latent heat, sensible heat) are transferred for
surface to
air and compensate for a part
of the heat lost to the cosmos by the upper layer
of the water vapour displayed on figure 6 - C.
The researchers discovered a
temperature increase
of just 1 degree Celsius in near -
surface air temperatures in the tropics leads to an
average annual growth rate
of atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent to one - third
of the annual
global emissions from combustion
of fossil fuels and deforestation combined.
Unfortunately using
global average surface air temperatures as a measure
of total warming ignores the fact that most
of the heat (more than 93 %) goes into our oceans, which continue to warm without any sign
of a pause, as you can see below.
https://judithcurry.com/2016/02/10/are-land-sea-
temperature-averages-meaningful/ Several
of the major datasets that claim to represent «
global average surface temperature» are directly or effectively
averaging land
air temperatures with sea
surface temperatures.
3
Global Warming Defined
Global Warming Is The Increase In The
Average Temperature Of The Earth's Near -
surface Air And Oceans Since The Mid-20th Century And Its Projected Continuation.
Armchair detectives might call it the case
of Earth's missing heat: Why have
average global surface air temperatures remained essentially steady since 2000, even as greenhouse gases have continued to accumulate in the atmosphere?
Global Warming Is The Increase In The
Average Temperature Of The Earth's Near -
surface Air And Oceans Since The Mid-20th Century And Its Projected Continuation.
[2] The dark red line in the top panel shows the multi-model
average simulation
of the 20th century
global surface air temperature.
NASA states that the
average global surface air temperature between 1951 and 1980 is 14 °C, «with an uncertainty
of several tenths
of a degree»,
There is to mention, that the globally
average temperature of the
air near the
surface (y = T)
of about 288 K was calculated using the definition
of a
global average, too.
Global temperatures usually are described in terms
of the
surface air temperature anomaly, the deviation
of the
temperature at each site from a mean
of many years that is
averaged over the whole world, both land and oceans.
Five - year
averaging reduces differences among
temperature datasets, showing that since the mid-1970s the
global surface air temperature has on
average increased by 0.1 °C every five to six years, although the rate
of warming, viewed from a five - year perspective, has not been steady.
But the «mean»
of kriged, adjusted anomalies
of a small portion
of the
surface air (and rarely sea
surface)
of the globe are referred to in all the scare propaganda as «
Global Average Temperature.»
The
global average surface air temperatures for each
of the four seasons in 2017 were all higher than the respective
averages for 1981 - 2010.
However, for changes over time, only anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area - weighted
global average of the sea
surface temperature anomaly and land
surface air temperature anomaly.
I have to say that it would be much wiser to just say we don't have a good number on the OLWR and carry on with our analysis
of total
global heat change and its relationship to
average global near -
surface air temperature.
Specifically, the term is defined as how much the
average global surface temperature will increase if there is a doubling
of greenhouse gases (expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents) in the
air, once the planet has had a chance to settle into a new equilibrium after the increase occurs.
tree rings as proxies
of surface air temp as proxies
of global climate heat content; or temp anomalies as proxies
of average temperatures as proxies
of global climate heat content), might sound good on paper to those who think they already know the truth.
Figure 6 shows the
global land
surface air temperature plus sea
surface temperature anomalies (
average of GISS LOTI, HADCRUT4 and NCDC datasets, like The Escalator) before, during and after the 1997/98 El Niño.
Therefore, in contrast to the Jones et al. (2001)
global land -
surface air temperature data, the
global land and sea
surface temperature data are not a simple
average of the hemispheres.