Nothing in the Met Office's statement or in Nuticelli's argument effectively refutes Rose's argument that there has been no increase in
the global average surface temperature for the past 16 years.
The WMO's preliminary estimate, based on data from January to October, shows that
the global average surface temperature for 2015 so far is around 0.73 °C above the 1961 - 1990 average of 14 °C, and approximately 1 °C above the pre-industrial 1880 - 1899 period.
effectively refutes Mr Rose's argument that there has been no increase in
the global average surface temperature for the past 16 years.
Figure 8 shows the projected change in
global average surface temperature for the various SRES.
But 2015 is the height of a very large El Niño, a quasi-periodic warming of tropical Pacific waters that is known to kite
global average surface temperature for a year or so.
Since publication of the AR4, nature has thrown the IPCC a «curveball» — there has been no significant increase in
global average surface temperature for the past 15 + years.
Global average surface temperatures for each year with their respective uncertainties (width of the curves) from Berkeley Earth.
Not exact matches
The results show that even though there has been a slowdown in the warming of the
global average temperatures on the
surface of Earth, the warming has continued strongly throughout the troposphere except
for a very thin layer at around 14 - 15 km above the
surface of Earth where it has warmed slightly less.
Land and Ocean Combined: The combined
average temperature over
global land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was the record highest
for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century
average of 60.1 °F (15.6 °C).
The
global average temperature over land and ocean
surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA said the combined
global land and ocean
average surface temperature for the January - October period was 0.68 °C (1.22 °F) above the 20th century
average of 14.1 °C (57.4 °F).
Ocean Only: The August
global sea
surface temperature was 1.17 °F (0.65 °C) above the 20th century
average of 61.4 °F (16.4 °C), the highest on record
for August.
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident over most of the
global land
surface, except
for parts of western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
Ocean Only: The
global ocean
surface temperature for the year to date was 0.99 °F (0.55 °C) above
average, tying with 2010 as the second warmest such period on record, behind only 1998.
Ocean Only: The June - August
global sea
surface temperature was 1.13 °F (0.63 °C), above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F (16.4 °C), the highest
for June - August on record.
2017 is also the 41st consecutive year that
global surface temperatures exceeded the
average for the 20th century, according to NOAA.
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident over most of the
global land
surfaces, except
for parts of the United States and western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
The
average global sea
surface temperature tied with 2010 as the second highest
for January — August in the 135 - year period of record, behind 1998, while the
average land
surface temperature was the fifth highest.
With records dating back to 1880, the
global temperature across the world's land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was 0.75 °C (1.35 °F) higher than the 20th century
average of 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).
«The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said
global land
surface temperatures in January and April were likely the warmest since records began in 1880, at more than 1 degree Celsius higher than
average for those months.
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean
surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted
for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends
for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend
for the full time period (red).
This is defined as the change in
average global surface temperature for a given amount of carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere.
With the contribution of such record warmth at year's end and with 10 months of the year record warm
for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest
for January and April was third warmest), the
average global temperature across land and ocean
surface areas
for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century
average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
For the oceans, the November global sea surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), the highest for November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.20 °C (0.36 °
For the oceans, the November
global sea
surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century
average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), the highest
for November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.20 °C (0.36 °
for November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.20 °C (0.36 °F).
Separately, the
global land
surface temperature was 1.89 °C (3.40 °F) above
average, the highest on record
for December, surpassing the previous record set in 2006 by 0.48 °C (0.86 °F).
The June globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.39 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for June in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.05 °F.
The May globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.37 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.3 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for May in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.09 °F.
Similar to the March — May
global land and ocean
surface temperature, the March — May land
surface temperature was also the fourth highest three - month departure from
average for any three - month period on record.
The April globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.44 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 60.9 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for April in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.25 °F and besting 1998, the last time a similar strength El Niño occurred, by 0.43 °F.
The July globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.42 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for July in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.07 °F.
(a)
Global surface temperature record (1870 — 2010) relative to the average global surface temperature for 1961 — 1990 (black
Global surface temperature record (1870 — 2010) relative to the
average global surface temperature for 1961 — 1990 (black
global surface temperature for 1961 — 1990 (black line).
During the final month, the December combined
global land and ocean
average surface temperature was the highest on record
for any month in the 136 - year record.
The September globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.33 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.1 °F, tying with 2014 as the second highest
global ocean
temperature for September in the 1880 — 2016 record, behind 2015 by 0.16 °F.
According to the results, the area covered by carbon - rich frozen ground in the Arctic is expected to shrink by 4m square km
for every extra degree that
global average surface temperature rises.
[9]
Temperature changes Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1880 &m
Temperature changes
Global mean
surface temperature difference from the average for 1880 &m
temperature difference from the
average for 1880 — 2009.
During the final month, the December combined
global land and ocean
average surface temperature was the third highest
for December in the 137 - year record.
«The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said
global land
surface temperatures in January and April were likely the warmest since records began in 1880, at more than 1 degree Celsius higher than
average for those months.
-- The combined
global land and ocean
average surface temperature for the December — February period was 0.41 °C (0.74 °F) above the 20th century
average of 12.1 °C (53.8 °F), making it the 17th warmest such period on record and the coolest December — February since 2008.
This was one of the motivations
for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the
global -
average surface air
temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
The
global ocean
surface temperature for the year to date was 0.34 °C (0.61 °F) above the 20th century
average and was the 14th warmest such period on record.
The
global ocean
surface temperature for the same period was 0.33 °C (0.59 °F) above the 20th century
average and was the 15th warmest such period on record.
According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of
global average temperature increase
for the
surface compared with higher levels in the atmosphere.
The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface air
temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 °C, which can account
for much of the hiatus in
surface warming observed since 2001.
Global average surface temperatures are not expected to change significantly although
temperatures at higher latitudes may be expected to decrease to a modest extent because of a reduction in the efficiency of meridional heat transport (offsetting the additional warming anticipated
for this environment caused by the build - up of greenhouse gases).
«The combined
average temperature over
global land and ocean
surfaces tied with 2010 as the highest on record
for April, at 58.09 °F (14.47 °C) or 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above the 20th century
average.»
Nonetheless, there is a tendency
for similar equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS, especially using a Charney ECS defined as equilibrium
global time
average surface temperature change per unit tropopause - level forcing with stratospheric adjustment,
for different types of forcings (CO2, CH4, solar) if the forcings are not too idiosyncratic.
(PS we are considering the climate sensitivity to be in terms of changes in
global - time
average surface temperature per unit
global - time
average radiative forcing, though one could also define other sensitivities
for other measures of climate).
«According to the radiative - convective equilibrium concept, the equation
for determining
global average surface temperature of the planet is
«The
average global temperature anomaly
for combined land and ocean
surfaces for July (based on preliminary data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term mean.