Independent evidence shows that the attribution to humans of the large signal, 1ºC rise in Earth's
global average surface temperature over the last century is erroneous, and confirms the non-existence of AGW.
Not exact matches
Land and Ocean Combined: The combined
average temperature over global land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was the record highest for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century
average of 60.1 °F (15.6 °C).
The
global average temperature over land and ocean
surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident
over most of the
global land
surface, except for parts of western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect compared with long - term
global warming but a substantial one
over a decade.
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident
over most of the
global land
surfaces, except for parts of the United States and western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
Global warming, the phenomenon of increasing
average air
temperatures near the
surface of Earth
over...
Expressed as a
global average,
surface temperatures have increased by about 0.74 °C
over the past hundred years (between 1906 and 2005; see Figure 1).
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean
surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates
over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
global warming The increase in Earth's
surface air
temperatures, on
average, across the globe and
over decades.
Cooling sea -
surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean — part of a natural warm and cold cycle — may explain why
global average temperatures have stabilized in recent years, even as greenhouse gas emissions have been warming the planet.
Fig. 4 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), moving
average over 23 months to end of October 2016.
Global average surface temperatures increased on
average by about 0.6 degrees Celsius
over the period 1956 - 2006.
Fig. 5 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), running
average over 37 months.
Jacob (and many, many others) seem to think that if model A, when run from 1900 to present, predicts the relatively flat,
global average surface temperature record
over the past decade, is a better match to reality than model B which does not.
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming
over this period....
«The combined
average temperature over global land and ocean
surfaces tied with 2010 as the highest on record for April, at 58.09 °F (14.47 °C) or 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above the 20th century
average.»
The
global temperature record represents an
average over the entire
surface of the planet.
Clearly the rate at which TOA imbalance diffuses into and through the
global ocean is key to how much and how quickly
global average surface temperature will rise
over any given span of time.
«
Global annually
averaged surface air
temperature has increased by about 1.8 °F (1.0 °C)
over the last 115 years (1901 — 2016).
However, as we have previously discussed, the
average global surface temperature over the first decade of this century has indeed warmed at a dampened rate.
Assuming that no action is taken to reduce emissions, computer models of the earth's climate indicate that
global average surface temperatures will rise by 1.5 - 4.5 C
over the next 100 years.
Figure 6: Easterbrook's two
global temperature projections A (green) and B (blue) vs. the IPCC TAR simple model projection tuned to seven
global climate models for emissions scenario A2 (the closest scenario to reality thus far)(red) and observed
global surface temperature change (the
average of NASA GISS, NOAA, and HadCRUT4)(black)
over the period 2000 through 2011.
That is why, to us, the rise in the concentration of these greenhouse gases manifests itself as
global warming, a rise in the
average temperatures over the Earth's
surface.
The combined
average temperature over global land and ocean
surfaces for April 2016 was 1.98 °F above the 20th century
average — the highest
temperature departure for April since
global records began in 1880.
We might expect «
global warming» (i.e., an increase in
average surface air
temperatures over a few decades) to lead to a rise in
global mean sea levels.
Human civilization developed
over a period of 10,000 years during which
global average surface temperatures remained remarkably stable, hovering within one degree Celsius of where they are today.
The annual anomaly of the
global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the
average of the near -
surface air
temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010
average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century
average), and was the warmest since 1891.
While the warming of
average global surface temperatures has slowed (though not nearly as much as previously believed), the overall amount of heat accumulated by the
global climate has not, with
over 90 percent being absorbed by the oceans.
During that same period,
average annual rainfall in New South Wales declined by 3.6 inches (92 millimeters).3 Scientists think the decline in autumn rainfall in southeast Australia since the late 1950s may be partly due to increases in heat - trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere.3, 14 Major bushfires
over southeast Australia are linked to the positive phase of an ocean cycle called the «Indian Ocean Dipole» — when sea
surface temperatures are warmer than
average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to
global warming.15, 16
Over the last decade or so, the models have not shown an ability to predict the lack (or very muted) change in the annual
average global surface temperature trend.
Internal variability can only account for ~ 0.3 °C change in
average global surface air
temperature at most
over periods of several decades, and scientific studies have consistently shown that it can not account for more than a small fraction of the
global warming
over the past century.
«claims that «
Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth's
average surface temperature over the past century» are erroneous and indicative of either ignorance or duplicity on the part of NASA's Earth Observatory, NASA's Climate Consensus page, The Daily Mail, the EPA and many others.»
There is a little reported school of AGW skepticism that keeps on pointing out that it makes no sense to construct a
global average temperature by
averaging individual
temperatures over the earth's
surface because:
Regardless, claims that «
Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth's
average surface temperature over the past century» are erroneous and indicative of either ignorance or duplicity on the part of NASA's Earth Observatory, NASA's Climate Consensus page, The Daily Mail, the EPA and many others.
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect compared with long - term
global warming but a substantial one
over a decade.
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated — by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing» of the «rate» of increase in
average ambient
global land and ocean
surface air
temperatures over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term mean of the 90s is also meaningless in terms of the basic issue, and why the
average ambient increase in
global air
temperatures over such a short term is by far the least important empirical indicia of the issue.
The scientists» main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity
over the last 30 - 40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for
global average surface temperature.
I'm very convinced that the physical process of
global warming is continuing, which appears as a statistically significant increase of the
global surface and tropospheric
temperature anomaly
over a time scale of about 20 years and longer and also as trends in other climate variables (e.g.,
global ocean heat content increase, Arctic and Antarctic ice decrease, mountain glacier decrease on
average and others), and I don't see any scientific evidence according to which this trend has been broken, recently.
Global average surface temperatures increased on
average by about 0.6 ¡ C
over the period 1956 - 2006.
The Summary for Policy Makers at the beginning of AR5 defines «the past» by referencing
temperatures to the
global mean
surface temperature averaged over 1985 - 2005.
Over the past century and a half,
global average surface temperature has increased by about 1.5 °F.
The period of increased warming from 1987 to 1997 loosely coincided with the divergence of the
global average temperature anomalies
over land, which are derived from observation station recordings, and the
global average anomalies in sea
surface temperatures.
«The combined
average temperature over global land and ocean
surfaces for July 2015 was the highest for July in the 136 - year period of record, at 0.81 °C (1.46 °F) above the 20th century
average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08 °C (0.14 °F).»
From the Executive Summary: «
Global annually
averaged surface air
temperature has increased by about 1.8 °F (1.0 °C)
over the last 115 years (1901 — 2016).
Following a warming trend early in the 20th century and mid-century cooling,
surface air
temperatures in the Arctic have shown a strong increase
over the last few decades, warming at about twice the
global average.
Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth's
average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels.
Scientific Background
Global warming refers to the phenomenon of increasing
average surface temperatures of the Earth
over the past one to two centuries.
What the report says about climate change and the Arctic:
Over the past 50 years, near -
surface air
temperatures across Alaska and the Arctic have increased at a rate more than twice as fast as the
global average.
Over the past 60 years (1951 — 2010), the study finds that
global average surface temperatures have warmed 0.6 °C, while in climate models, greenhouse gases caused between 0.6 and 1.2 °C
surface warming.