I compute the trends as simple linear least squares fits through the monthly
global average temperature anomalies for each dataset (from Figure 1).
*** The table below shows
the global average temperature anomalies for the last 20 years (2014 only includes data from Jan to Oct, so may change).
Not exact matches
But rather than using the baselines those agencies employ, Climate Central compared 2016's
temperature anomalies to an 1881 - 1910
average temperature baseline, the earliest date
for which
global temperature data are considered reliable.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface
temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends
for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend
for the full time period (red).
But even then the «fraction of the
anomaly due to
global warming» is somewhat arbitrary because it depends on the chosen baseline
for defining the
anomaly — is it the
average July
temperature, or typical previous summer heat waves (however defined), or the
average summer
temperature, or the
average annual
temperature?
«The
average global temperature anomaly for combined land and ocean surfaces
for July (based on preliminary data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term mean.
to be consistent, either we should have 100 points measuring the
temperature on a specific hour of the day on mountains and in the ocean, and no
average world
temperature, or we should do the same with CO2, measure high
for the day, low
for the day,
average, and make a
global average from many regions, and then define an
anomaly on the same interval as the
temperature anomaly in order to be consistent.
:: An Anamoly describes the sum of difference over a year, when this sum is added to the baseline
Temperature,
average annual
global Temperature for the year is described, when this figure is added to the population the
average is increased, if the
Anomaly is positive.
«To summarize - Using the 60 and 1000 year quasi repetitive patterns in conjunction with the solar data leads straightforwardly to the following reasonable predictions
for Global SSTs 1 Continued modest cooling until a more significant
temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4
Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
Temperature Hadsst3 moving
average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5
Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
Temperature Hadsst3 moving
average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century
temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
The focus on
anomalys has distracted from the most relevant metric,
Global Annual
Average Temperature, which has been increasing every year
for the last 10 and longer, meaning no «Plateau»..
«The latest (February 2012) monthly
global temperature anomaly for the lower atmosphere was minus 0.12 degrees Celsius, slightly less than the
average since the satellite record of
temperatures began in 1979.»
They looked at
global temperature anomalies — deviations from an
average or standard
temperature —
for 73 sites distributed across the planet, using fossils in sediments as a proxy
for temperature.
The most basic is that there are more real - world observations, including
global emissions of CO2 and aerosols and readings at
temperature stations and SST buoys, leading to new values
for stats like globally
averaged temperature anomaly, and the like.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface
temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends
for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend
for the full time period (red).
One reason
for this is that «
global temperature» varies significantly over the months of the year due to seasonally varying Earth / sun geometry and the greater land mass in the Northern Hemisphere, so that any
global average of absolute
temperature, not
anomalies, will be considerably higher in NH summer than SH summer, and this will be true even in an unchanging climate.
The metric used by IPCC in all its reports
for past and projected future «
global warming» has been the «globally and annually
averaged land and sea surface
temperature anomaly» (as reported by HadCRUT3).
I am still waiting
for word on what the
global temperature anomaly for the month was, but I suspect it will be fairly close to normal, which means that on
average the
temperature of the Earth will come in at ~ 12.0 °C which is 4 °C colder than it will be in 6 months from now, but because of how they talk about
temperature, I will be the only one pointing out the difference between the actual
temperature and the
anomaly temperature.
Then using an estimate of 14.0 C
for the
global temperature average of the 20th century, 12 - month absolute
temperatures were calculated from the calculated 12 - month
average anomalies.
Note: Excel used to calculate the 3 - year absolute
temperature and CO2 level
averages; also used to calculate the moving 36 - month and 360 - month per century acceleration / deceleration trends (Excel slope function) as depicted on chart; the absolute temps calculated using the HadCRUT4 month
anomalies and NOAA's monthly
global mean
temperature estimates; and, the 3 - year
average beginning value
for CO2 was offset to a zero starting place.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47 The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface
temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends
for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend
for the full time period (red
The impact of these changes in cloud cover can account
for the variations in HadCRUT4
global average temperature anomalies and the divergence between land and sea
temperatures.
Re: question, check the GISS
temperature site
for the
anomaly maps and you will see that the arctic is in fact warming much more than the
global average, as predicted.
Despite these reclassifications, the general conclusions are similar from previous work: (1)
global temperature anomalies for each phase (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral) have been increasing over time and (2) on
average,
global temperatures during El Niño years are higher than neutral years, which in turn, are higher than La Niña years.
Roger — I would argue that
temperatures aren't
averaged, and consequently
average temperature is not used to compute
global delta T. Rather, what are
averaged are grid - based
temperature anomalies, so that it is change (delta T) in each region from one year to the next that is used
for averaging rather than
global average temperatures.
Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a); mean annual
temperature (MAT) reconstructions
for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as
anomalies based on 1961 — 1990
temperature averages (b); changes in ENSO - related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](c); changes in PDSI variability
for the American Southwest (d), and changes in winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].
The more I thought about the practice of subtracting the Nino 3.4 variations from the
global average temperature anomalies, the more questions came up
for me.
So,
for example, HadCRU and GISS each provide a climatological datum of mean
global temperature for a single year and present it as a difference (i.e. an
anomaly) from the
average mean
global temperature of a 30 year period.
Figure 1 shows the impact on the
global average temperature trend
for all trend lengths between 10 and 35 years (incorporating our educated guess as to what the 2013
temperature anomaly will be), and compares that to the distribution of climate model simulations of the same period.
Image to right — Looking at
Average Monthly
Global Temperatures: This is a global map of unusual (anomaly) monthly - mean surface temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 1980 bas
Global Temperatures: This is a global map of unusual (anomaly) monthly - mean surface temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 19
Temperatures: This is a
global map of unusual (anomaly) monthly - mean surface temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 1980 bas
global map of unusual (
anomaly) monthly - mean surface
temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 19
temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 1980 baseline.
Seasonal,
global surface air
temperature anomalies from boreal spring 1979 to autumn 2017 relative to the respective seasonal
average for the period 1981 - 2010.
«To summarize — Using the 60 and 1000 year quasi repetitive patterns in conjunction with the solar data leads straightforwardly to the following reasonable predictions
for Global SSTs 1 Continued modest cooling until a more significant
temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 minus 0.15 degrees 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 minus 0.5 degrees 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4
Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 minus 0.15 degrees 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 minus 0.5 degrees 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
Temperature Hadsst3 moving
average anomaly 2035 minus 0.15 degrees 5
Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 minus 0.5 degrees 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
Temperature Hadsst3 moving
average anomaly 2100 minus 0.5 degrees 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century
temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
However,
for changes over time, only
anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area - weighted
global average of the sea surface
temperature anomaly and land surface air
temperature anomaly.
RSS and UAH monthly near -
global satellite lower - troposphere
temperature anomaly values
for each month from January 2001 to April 2016 were assumed to be broadly accurate and were
averaged.
Annual
global surface air
temperature anomalies from 1979 to 2017 relative to the annual
average for the period 1981 - 2010.
(See NCDC
Global Surface Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that month.&
Global Surface
Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that mo
Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The
global monthly surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that month.&
global monthly surface
temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that mo
temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's
anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period
average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface
temperature for that mo
temperature for that month.»
Global surface
temperature (
anomaly from 1960 - 1990
average) reconstructions
for the past 9000 years (Marcott et al. 2013),
for the past 2,000 years (PAGES 2k), and observed
for the past 150 yrs (Instrumental data from HadCRUT4) and the last 30 years (star).