Approximately 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in
global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 °C.
He warned that, if
global average temperature exceeded «about 3.5 ºC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 % — 70 % of species assessed) around the globe» [italics added].
Roughly 20 - 30 % of those species assessed so far are likely to be at high risk of irreversible extinction if
global average temperature exceeds 1.5 - 2.5 °C.
Not exact matches
February
exceeded the 1.5 °C target at 1.55 °C, marking the first time the
global average temperature has surpassed the sobering milestone in any month.
He predicted that by year's end, the
average global temperature would
exceed the previous record by 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Global average temperature increase will
exceed the recognized «guardrail» limit of 2 degrees Celsius.
2017 is also the 41st consecutive year that
global surface
temperatures exceeded the
average for the 20th century, according to NOAA.
Granted, while the globally
averaged annual
temperatures for the years since the record warm year of 1998 have not
exceeded the 1998 record, the
global temperatures since 1998 have remained high, ranking as the second, third and fourth warmest years of the last 125 years (and quit possibly the last 2,000 + years).
This is the first time in the NOAA record that a monthly
temperature departure from
average exceeded 1 °C or reached 2 °F and the second widest margin by which an all - time monthly
global temperature record has been broken.
Third, using a «semi-empirical» statistical model calibrated to the relationship between
temperature and
global sea - level change over the last 2000 years, we find that, in alternative histories in which the 20th century did not
exceed the
average temperature over 500-1800 CE,
global sea - level rise in the 20th century would (with > 95 % probability) have been less than 51 % of its observed value.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean
temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface
temperature change at high latitudes
exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
Granted, while the globally
averaged annual
temperatures for the years since the record warm year of 1998 have not
exceeded the 1998 record, the
global temperatures since 1998 have remained high, ranking as the second, third and fourth warmest years of the last 125 years (and quit possibly the last 2,000 + years).
Aware of the broad scientific view that the increase in
global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to
exceed 2 degrees C, we support an aspirational
global goal of reducing
global emissions by 50 percent by 2050, with developed countries reducing emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050, and recognizing the critical importance of development, including poverty eradication, in developing countries.
The draft states: «We recognise the scientific view that the increase in
global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to
exceed two degrees centigrade.»
A new forecast published by the Met Office indicates the annual
global average temperature is likely to
exceed 1 °C and could reach 1.5 °C during the Read more
Release of ECS methane is already contributing to Arctic amplification resulting in
temperature increase
exceeding twice the
global average.
Global average temperature increases of 0.74 °C are already documented, and
temperature increases in some areas are projected to
exceed 3.0 °C over the next decade.
The IPCC's Fourth Assessment says, «As
global average temperature increase
exceeds about 3.5 °C [relative to 1980 to 1999], model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 - 70 % of species assessed) around the globe.»
In November, delegates to the UN Climate Change Convention annual negotiations will gather in Paris to try to conclude an ambitious and effective agreement on preventing the
global average temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions
exceeding 2 ˚C above its pre-industrial level.
The overwhelming majority of the world's scientists agree that any increase in
average world
temperatures that
exceeds 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial era — some opt for a rise of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius — will alter the
global climate system drastically.
Further, we have no plan to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, even as we sign on to
global statements about the need to keep greenhouse gases from rising above 450 ppm in the atmosphere to keep
global average temperatures from
exceeding a growth of 2 degrees C.
As pointed out in a statement by Berkeley Earth, recent years, including 2017, already have had
global average surface
temperatures that
exceeded 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels (1850 - 1900).
Global average temperatures have now
exceeded the 20th - century
average every month for the past 32 years!
It declared that «
global average temperatures should not
exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial level».
In July 2009, Prime Minister Stephen Harper signed on to a G8 summit declaration recognizing the broad scientific view that the increase in
global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to
exceed 2Â °C.
This
global map provides a snapshot of regions of the Earth that
exceeded long - term
average temperatures.
If we
exceed the world carbon budget of one trillion tons burned (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5), the models project the planet will keep warming and it will be virtually impossible to bring
global average temperature back under the two degrees Celsius threshold.
Let's also look at the specific IPCC quote that Mr. Romm furnishes us with: «As
global average temperature increase
exceeds about 3.5 °C [relative to 1980 to 1999], model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 - 70 % of species assessed) around the globe.»
As
global average temperature increase
exceeds about 3.5 oC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 - 70 % of species assessed) around the globe.
«Based on all above findings and our compilation (Figure 4.4, Table 4.1 ″) we estimate that on
average 20 % to 30 % of species assessed are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction from climate change impacts possibly within this century as
global mean
temperatures exceed 2 °C to 3 °C relative to pre-industrial levels (this chapter).
The latest report by the IPCC, the international organization tasked with assessing the science of climate change and its impacts, predicts that in order to keep the increase in
average global surface
temperature under 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius), total future CO2 emissions can not
exceed 1 trillion tons.
But that is a
global atmospheric
average temperature: in fact, some parts of the planet have already
exceeded that.
Stabilisation scenarios are an important subset of inverse mitigation scenarios, describing futures in which emissions reductions are undertaken so that GHG concentrations, radiative forcing, or
global average temperature change do not
exceed a prescribed limit.
Keeping
global average temperatures to 1.4 C would mean cumulative
global emissions couldn't
exceed around 600bn tonnes of carbon (~ 2,200 bn tonnes of CO2) since pre-industrial times, rather than 850bn tonnes (~ 3,100 bn tonnes of CO2) for 2C, the paper says.