If we allow sustained
global average temperature increases of more than 1 degree Celsius, we will suffer irreversible climate destabilization and a planet largely inhospitable to human civilization.
Global average temperature increases of 0.74 °C are already documented, and temperature increases in some areas are projected to exceed 3.0 °C over the next decade.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging from centuries to millennia for
a global average temperature increase of 1 - 4 °C (relative to 1990 - 2000), causing a contribution to sea - level rise of 4 - 6 m or more.
Not exact matches
The
global temperature average has
increased by 1.4 degrees F, which may not seem like a lot, but the effects
of the
increase are being seen and felt globally.
Most scientists and climatologists agree that weird weather is at least in part the result
of global warming — a steady
increase in the
average temperature of the surface
of the Earth thought to be caused by
increased concentrations
of greenhouse gasses produced by human activity.
WHEREAS, in furtherance
of the united effort to address the effects
of climate change, in 2010 the 16th Session
of the Conference
of the Parties to the UNFCC met in Cancun, Mexico and recognized that deep cuts in
global greenhouse gas emissions were required, with a goal
of reducing
global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the
increase in
global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels;
WHEREAS, in furtherance
of the united effort to address the effects
of climate change, in 2015 the 21st Session
of the Conference
of the Parties to the UNFCC met in Paris, France and entered into a historic agreement in which 195 nations, including the United States, were signatories and agreed to determine their own target contribution to mitigate climate change by holding the
increase in the
global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, among other terms (the «Paris Agreement»);
Their stock prices and business plans depend on digging up and burning these reserves, which would lead to an unsustainable
increase in the
average global temperature of between 6 and 12 degrees or more.
«This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation
of the [2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change], including its objective, aims to strengthen the
global response to the threat
of climate change, in the context
of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including by: (a) Holding the
increase in the
global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts
of climate change; (b)
Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts
of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; and (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate - resilient development.
To be more specific, the models project that over the next 20 years, for a range
of plausible emissions, the
global temperature will
increase at an
average rate
of about 0.2 degree C per decade, close to the observed rate over the past 30 years.
On Dec. 12, 2015, the 21st Conference
of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change approved the Paris Agreement committing 195 nations
of the world to «holding the
increase in the
global average temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 °C.»
Combining the asylum - application data with projections
of future warming, the researchers found that an
increase of average global temperatures of 1.8 °C — an optimistic scenario in which carbon emissions flatten globally in the next few decades and then decline — would
increase applications by 28 percent by 2100, translating into 98,000 extra applications to the EU each year.
Published today in the journal Nature Geoscience, the paper concludes that limiting the
increase in
global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels to 1.5 °C, the goal
of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, is not yet geophysically impossible, but likely requires more ambitious emission reductions than those pledged so far.
The strength and path
of the North Atlantic jet stream and the Greenland blocking phenomena appear to be influenced by
increasing temperatures in the Arctic which have
averaged at least twice the
global warming rate over the past two decades, suggesting that those marked changes may be a key factor affecting extreme weather conditions over the UK, although an Arctic connection may not occur each year.
The Paris Agreement sets the goal
of holding the
increase in the
global average mean
temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels but calls for efforts to limit that
increase to 1.5 °C.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA — In the run - up to national elections on 21 August, the country's top science body, the Australian Academy
of Science (AAS), has weighed in on the climate change debate with a report backing the mainstream scientific view that human - induced climate change is real and that a business - as - usual approach to carbon emissions will lead to a «catastrophic» four - to five - degree
increase in
average global temperatures.
Some
of the discussion revolves around the goal, adopted by nations at the 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen,
of limiting the
global average temperature increase to 2 °C.
The second simulation overlaid that same weather data with a «pseudo
global warming» technique using an accepted scenario that assumes a 2 - to 3 - degree
increase in
average temperature, and a doubling
of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Global average temperature increase will exceed the recognized «guardrail» limit
of 2 degrees Celsius.
According to one estimate, nations» current mitigation policies would still result in a 3.6 - degree C
increase in
average global temperature by the end
of the century.
These are, respectively, the upper «safe» concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the upper «safe» limit
of average global temperature increase.
Results
of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University
of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that
temperatures across the northeastern United States will
increase much faster than the
global average, so that the 2 - degrees Celsius warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate change will be reached about 20 years earlier for this part
of the U.S. compared to the world as a whole.
On
average, the models predicted an 11 percent
increase in CAPE in the U.S. per degree Celsius rise in
global average temperature by the end
of the 21st century.
This new research takes away the lower end
of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that
global average temperatures will
increase by 3 °C to 5 °C with a doubling
of carbon dioxide.»
It is well - established in the scientific community that
increases in atmospheric CO2 levels result in
global warming, but the magnitude
of the effect may vary depending on
average global temperature.
According to these data, the
AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE for the first 9 months of 2008 is LOWER than the average from 2000 thru 2007 by an amount equal to 43.1 % of the total linearized increase (NOAA data) during the 20th c
AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE for the first 9 months
of 2008 is LOWER than the
average from 2000 thru 2007 by an amount equal to 43.1 % of the total linearized increase (NOAA data) during the 20th c
average from 2000 thru 2007 by an amount equal to 43.1 %
of the total linearized
increase (NOAA data) during the 20th century.
Global warming, the phenomenon
of increasing average air
temperatures near the surface
of Earth over...
(«Most
of the observed
increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.»)
An
increase (0.35 °C) occurred in the
global average temperature from the 1910s to the 1940s, followed by a slight cooling (0.1 °C), and then a rapid warming (0.55 °C) up to the end
of 2006 (Figure 1).
The planet experienced a positive IPO, or El Tio, in the periods 1925 - 1946 and 1977 - 1998, both
of which were periods that saw «rapid»
increases in
global average temperatures, according to the study.
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each
of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates
of increase in recent decades.
The study, published in the June 30 edition
of the journal Environmental Research Letters, was based on an
average global temperature increase of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, which is considered a relatively conservative estimate and the limit needed to avert catastrophic impacts.
These rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to an
increase in
global average temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much
of which has been absorbed by the oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake
of atmospheric CO2 has led to major changes in surface ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
Mr. Cuccinelli is well known for his harassment
of Michael Mann, a climate scientist vilified by industry apologists for creating the «Hockey Stick» graph illustrating the
increase of average global temperature measurements over the last millennium.
However, at the
increased levels seen since the Industrial Revolution (roughly 275 ppm then, 400 ppm now; Figure 2 - 1), greenhouse gases are contributing to the rapid rise
of our
global average temperatures by trapping more heat, often referred to as human - caused climate change.
The main aim
of the Paris Agreement is to keep a
global average temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius and to drive efforts to limit the
temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The past century has seen a 0.8 °C
increase in
average global temperature, and according to the IPCC, the overwhelming source
of this
increase has been emissions
of greenhouse gases and other pollutants from human activities.
Overall, the
global annual
temperature has
increased at an
average rate
of 0.07 °C (0.13 °F) per decade since 1880 and at an
average rate
of 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) per decade since 1970.»
It's easy to see that there was a sharp
increase in
global average surface
temperatures from the 1970s through the end
of the 1990s.
The
global land and ocean
temperature during January has
increased at an
average rate
of +0.07 °C (+0.13 °F) per decade since 1880; however, the
average rate
of increase is twice as great since 1975.
The WMO warned that continuing on a business as usual path
of rising emissions could put the world on track for 10.8 °F (6 °C)
increase in the
global average temperature.
It's the tie that binds and while the
global average temperature is the defining metric, the
increasing incidence
of heat waves and longer lasting extreme heat is how the world will experience it.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming
of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations
of increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level.
Two decades after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, most governments have agreed that limiting the
increase in the
average surface
temperature of the Earth to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would represent a tolerable amount
of global warming.
[2] According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most
of the observed
increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations.
Imagine sea levels rising by feet instead
of inches,
global average temperatures increasing by many degrees instead
of just fractions and an
increase in other cataclysmic, costly and fatal weather events.
Greenhouse gases released by the burning
of fossil fuels have steadily risen in the world's atmosphere since the industrial revolution, trapping heat and leading to a
global increase in
average temperatures.
Therefore a statistic that combines
average global temperature,
global humidity, and the negative
of ice cover should
increase every year.
Yet to say that «Most
of the observed
increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations», science must «very likely» know everything important about the subject.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are
increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much
of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are
increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders
increase the amplitude and duration
of blocking highs,
increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)