I am interested in
global average temperatures only in so far as it gives a feel for the severity of the impact at the local level.
Not exact matches
Last week Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, estimated that the
average global temperature in 2016 could range from about 1.1 °C above preindustrial to
only slightly below 1.5 °C, based on GISS's
temperature record and its definition of pre-industrial (other records and definitions vary).
As a result, the climate policy scenario lowered
global average temperatures by 0.27 degrees in 2050, which is more than when
only short - lived climate forcers were controlled.
A U.N. Environment Program report released last week showed that, taken together, the NDCs
only account for a third of the necessary emissions reductions needed to keep
global average temperatures from heating 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels.
While
average global temperatures in the mid-Pliocene rose
only 3.6 to 5.4 F, the Arctic was a totally different world.
For comparison, the
global temperature of the most recent Ice Age was
only about five degrees C below the current
average.
Yet the
global average temperature differences corresponding to these radically different climates were
only about 5 degrees C in the tropics and 8 degrees C in polar regions.
Land
Only: The
global land
temperature was the fifth highest on record for June - August, at 1.64 °F (0.91 °C) above the 20th century
average of 56.9 °F (13.8 °C).
Ocean
Only: The August
global sea surface
temperature was 1.17 °F (0.65 °C) above the 20th century
average of 61.4 °F (16.4 °C), the highest on record for August.
Ocean
Only: The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.99 °F (0.55 °C) above average, tying with 2010 as the second warmest such period on record, behind only 1
Only: The
global ocean surface
temperature for the year to date was 0.99 °F (0.55 °C) above
average, tying with 2010 as the second warmest such period on record, behind
only 1
only 1998.
Ocean
Only: The June - August
global sea surface
temperature was 1.13 °F (0.63 °C), above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F (16.4 °C), the highest for June - August on record.
Land
Only: The August global land temperature was the second highest for August on record, behind only 1998, at 1.78 °F (0.99 °C) above the 20th century average of 56.9 °F (13.8 °C), with a margin of error of + / - 0.43 °F (0.24
Only: The August
global land
temperature was the second highest for August on record, behind
only 1998, at 1.78 °F (0.99 °C) above the 20th century average of 56.9 °F (13.8 °C), with a margin of error of + / - 0.43 °F (0.24
only 1998, at 1.78 °F (0.99 °C) above the 20th century
average of 56.9 °F (13.8 °C), with a margin of error of + / - 0.43 °F (0.24 °C).
Considering all these factors, Smith and Mizrahi suggest that targeting methane and soot will cause
global average temperatures to be
only 0.16 °C lower by 2050 than they would have been otherwise, the researchers report today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In scenarios in which the
average global temperature rises less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, short - term measures to reduce SLCF had
only a minor effect on the long - term rise in
temperature.
But
global average temperatures tell
only a fraction of the story.
But even with such policies in place — not
only in the U.S. but across the globe — climate change is a foregone conclusion;
global average temperatures have already risen by at least 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit (0.6 degree C) and further warming of at least 0.7 degree F (0.4 degree C) is virtually certain, according to the IPCC.
For example, the
global temperature change when we recovered from the last ice age
averaged only about 0.1 C per century (and descent into an ice age tended to be even slower)... whereas we are now looking at changes greater than that happening in one decade.
In order correctly argue that an increase in the «
global average»
temperature is the
only dominant phenomena requires the following.
You are
only looking at regional
temperatures (England, the Eastern US, etc.) as opposed to *
global *
averages.
If one accepts that the «
global average»
temperature is the one and
only important correlating parameter, it seems that one would have to conclude that an increase in the «
global average»
temperature results in an increase in the mass of glaciers.
[Response I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here, but if you feel that you can
only assess whether
temperatures are changing by looking at 30 - year
averages, consider the following:
Global mean
temperature anomalies (in degrees C, relative to 1961 - 90 reference period): 1885 - 1914: -0.35; 1915 - 1944: -0.18; 1945 - 1974: -0.07; 1975 - 2004: +0.21.
The C.R.U. is
only one of several groups who are analyzing the long term
global average surface
temperature trends drawing from mostly the same raw observed data.
Global average temperature is lower during glacial periods for two primary reasons: 1) there was
only about 190 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, and other major greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) were also lower 2) the earth surface was more reflective, due to the presence of lots of ice and snow on land, and lots more sea ice than today (that is, the albedo was higher).
Only 908 stations used for the October 2008 GISS analysis whereas some 40 yerars ago there were double the number of stations used to derive an
average global temperature.
The most severe impacts of climate change — damaging and often deadly drought, sea - level rise, and extreme weather — can
only be avoided by keeping
average global temperatures within 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) of pre-industrial levels.
As noted above, 1997 - 98 saw an exceptionally strong El Nino, producing a consequent
temperature high that has
only in recent years been equalled - hence it being a popular start - point for the «
global average temperature has now been flat for the past 15 years» talking - point.
The
average global temperature now is
only some 9 C warmer than during the depths of the last ice age, and the planet took some two millennia to emerge from that.
But «in order to explain the drop in atmospheric growth rate of CO2, we would need an
average drop in
global temperatures of about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 ° C), but the
temperatures only dropped by about one degree (0.9) Fahrenheit (0.5 °C) globally.»
The second is that the «
average» absolute
global mean «surface»
temperature is
only accurate to about + / - 2 C degrees, includes «sub-surface
temperatures averaged with above surface
temperatures at varying altitudes.
Monthly and 12 - month
average global temperature development, showing (with
only December data still missing) 2017 will likely rank as the third hottest year on record, despite a developing La Niña.
Temperatures often rise sharply in May before the onset of torrential monsoon rains but scientists say average temperatures are only likely to rise in the years ahead as a result of global warming, with damaging effects on health and p
Temperatures often rise sharply in May before the onset of torrential monsoon rains but scientists say
average temperatures are only likely to rise in the years ahead as a result of global warming, with damaging effects on health and p
temperatures are
only likely to rise in the years ahead as a result of
global warming, with damaging effects on health and productivity.
To understand why that doesn't make sense, one need
only look at the
average global temperatures.
*** The table below shows the
global average temperature anomalies for the last 20 years (2014
only includes data from Jan to Oct, so may change).
«Many other important impacts of climate change are difficult to quantify for a given change in
global average temperature, in part because
temperature is not the
only driver of change for some impacts; multiple environmental and other human factors come into play.»
in
average global temperature puts the 2012 - 2100 increase at 1 degree C or more, yet from 1979 to 2012 CO2 increased by
only about one - sixth.
Suppose the output of the sun were to suddenly increase by 6 %, we would expect
global average temperature to increase by
only about ~ 0.5 degrees.
Proof that CO2 has no effect on climate and identification of the two factors that do cause reported climate change (sunspot number is the
only independent variable) are at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com (now with 5 - year running -
average smoothing of measured
average global temperature (AGT), the near - perfect explanation of AGT since before 1900; R ^ 2 = 0.97 +).
It's been carefully crafted to create a certain impression: There are more factors than
only CO2 that influence
global average temperature.»
The seasonal variation in the earth's
global average sea surface
temperature is
only about 0.5 degrees Kelvin, being hotter in April and colder in October (see e.g. http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps).
For example, during the «Holocene thermal maximum,» the warmest period of the past 10,000 years, the Arctic
average temperature was two to three degrees warmer than it is today, while the
global average was
only a degree or so warmer.
Figure 1, above:
Global mean annual
average temperature in the simulations with time - varying long - lived species
only (top) and due to short - lived species (bottom).
The Commonwealth declaration avoided setting a numerical limit to
global temperature rise, saying
only, «We stress our common conviction that urgent and substantial action to reduce
global emissions is needed and have a range of views as to whether
average global temperature increase should be constrained to below 1.5 degrees or to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.»
This stability in TSI has 2 effects: (i) as you say it makes
global average temperatures remarkably stable (but I suggest the
temperature stability is principally down to the TSI stability) and (ii) estimating the effect of a TSI forcing on
global average temperatures is difficult when you have
only a 0.3 % forcing range.
That
only works out to a
global average temperature for a massless superconducting sphere.
If CO2 is a forcing, the
temperature could
only increase (unless compensated for by an as - yet - undiscovered forcing which magically disappeared as soon as credible
average global temperature measurements became available).
Identification of the two factors that do explain (R ^ 2 = 0.97 since before 1900) reported
average global temperature trajectory (sunspot number is the
only independent variable) are at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com
The interesting thing from a scientific perspective is that specifying the surface
temperature in this region seems to anchor the coupled atmosphere / ocean circulations in a way that not
only gives a better simulation of
global average surface
temperature, but also provides better simulations of the variability of key regional circulation features.
The
global average temperature calculations cover 97 - 98 percent of the earth's surface, excluding
only the most extreme polar latitudes.
As a geologist, I am highly frustrated by the asymmetry of research effort concentrated not
only on the rather abstract notion of
global average temperature almost to the exclusion of the other important climatic variables, but further obsessive and myopic self - flagellation over the human influence on trace CO2 levels.
Now, the
only way that a business recession could cause a temporary rise in
average global temperatures is for the reduced industrial activity to result in a reduction in the amount of SO2 aerosol emissions into the troposphere.