Plotting GHG forcing (7) from ice core data (27) against temperature shows that
global climate sensitivity including the slow surface albedo feedback is 1.5 °C per W / m2 or 6 °C for doubled CO2 (Fig. 2), twice as large as the Charney fast - feedback sensitivity.»
Not exact matches
The emission limit depends on
climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12]--[13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12]--[13],
including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C
global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 1000 GtC.
Other AgMIP initiatives
include global gridded modeling, data and information technology (IT) tool development, simulation of crop pests and diseases, site - based crop -
climate sensitivity studies, and aggregation and scaling.
Everyone else who follows the science, yourself
included surely, has to accept that
climate sensitivity estimates almost certainly show CO2 to be the dominant driver of
global temperature over the next 50 years.
DK12 used ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «
climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net
climate feedback is negative, which would mean that
climate sensitivity (the total amount of
global warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels,
including feedbacks) is low.
As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with
climate sensitivities (the total amount of
global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2,
including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) correspoding to 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high).
Climate sensitivity is defined in terms of
global averages (there is only one number) but a GCM is fully time - dependent, three - dimensional simulation that typically
includes atmospheric and ocean processes.
The scope of this chapter, with a focus on food crops, pastures and livestock, industrial crops and biofuels, forestry (commercial forests), aquaculture and fisheries, and small - holder and subsistence agriculturalists and artisanal fishers, is to: examine current
climate sensitivities / vulnerabilities; consider future trends in
climate,
global and regional food security, forestry and fisheries production; review key future impacts of
climate change in food crops pasture and livestock production, industrial crops and biofuels, forestry, fisheries, and small - holder and subsistence agriculture; assess the effectiveness of adaptation in offsetting damages and identify adaptation options,
including planned adaptation to
climate change; examine the social and economic costs of
climate change in those sectors; and, explore the implications of responding to
climate change for sustainable development.
[¶]... Basing our assessment on a combination of several independent lines of evidence, as summarised in Box 10.2 Figures 1 and 2,
including observed
climate change and the strength of known feedbacks simulated in GCMs, we conclude that the
global mean equilibrium warming for doubling CO2, or «equilibrium
climate sensitivity», is likely to lie in the range 2 °C to 4.5 °C, with a most likely value of about 3 °C.
The emission limit depends on
climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12]--[13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12]--[13],
including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 10
Climate Change [14], are that a 2 °C
global warming limit implies a cumulative carbon emissions limit of the order of 1000 GtC.
The IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with
climate sensitivities (the total amount of
global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2,
including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) of 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high) for doubled CO2 (Figure 1).
Topics
include:
Climate Forcing Agents and their Efficacy;
Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks; Anthropogenic
Climate Change; Extreme Events; Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions;
Global Temperature Limits and Mitigation Scenarios; and Geoengineering.
In our on - going effort to keep up with the science, today we update our previous summary with two additional recently published lower - than - IPCC
climate sensitivity estimates — one made by Troy Masters and another by Alexander Otto and colleagues (
including several co-authors not typically associated with
global warming in moderation, or «lukewarming»).
Recently there have been some studies and comments by a few
climate scientists that based on the slowed
global surface warming over the past decade, estimates of the Earth's overall equilibrium
climate sensitivity (the total amount of
global surface warming in response to the increased greenhouse effect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2,
including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) may be a bit too high.
Snyder also uses the inferred record of
global temperature to estimate equilibrium
climate sensitivity including slow feedbacks, sometimes called ESS, suggesting that doubled CO2 (4 W / m2 forcing) would eventually cause
global warming of 7 - 13C.
Some EMICs have been used to investigate both the
climate of the last glacial maximum (see Section 8.5) as well as to investigate the cause of the collapse of the conveyor in
global warming experiments (Stocker and Schmittner, 1997; Rahmstorf and Ganopolski, 1999) while others have been used to undertake a number of
sensitivity studies
including the role of sub-grid scale ocean mixing in
global warming experiments (Wiebe and Weaver, 1999).