Today we witness global warming from heat ventilation during an El Nino and
global cooling due to increased upwelling of cooler waters during La Ninas.
The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo caused
global cooling due to a large amount of SO2 that was put into the stratosphere.
This is key to deciding if we should panic over CO2 or, for example, be equally concerned about the possibility of
global cooling due to decreased solar activity.
Not exact matches
Changes in the number of cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere
due to changes in solar activity can not explain
global warming, as average cosmic ray intensities have been increasing since 1985 even as the world has warmed — the opposite of what should happen if cosmic rays produce climate -
cooling clouds.
Predictions of
global cooling in the short term are partly based on the idea that sea surface temperatures will fall in the northern Atlantic,
due to slow, irregular swings in conditions known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
SkS has looked at another study (Kaufmann [2011]-RRB- which suggested an increase in aerosol forcing (greater
cooling)
due to the rapid industrialization in China in the last decade, however we don't have any direct and accurate
global observations yet to support this.
Over the period 1984 — 2006 the
global changes are 0.28 °C in SST and − 9.1 W m − 2 in Q, giving an effective air — sea coupling coefficient of − 32 W m − 2 °C − 1... [D] iminished ocean
cooling due to vertical ocean processes played an important role in sustaining the observed positive trend in
global SST from 1984 through 2006, despite the decrease in
global surface heat flux.
For instance, increasing cloud cover
due to
global warming may change the albedo, but this would be a feedback to a larger warming effect, rather than a
cooling.
So when you put
cooling natural volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 together with a warming natural strong El Nino in 1998 you get a slight upward tilt to the
global temperature graph, but it's entirely
due to the dominace of natural events.
The
global cooling argument is hitting hard again right now
due to the recent chill.
Global climate models have successfully predicted the rise in temperature as greenhouse gases increased, the
cooling of the stratosphere as the troposphere warmed, polar amplification
due the ice - albedo effect and other effects, greater increase in nighttime than in daytime temperatures, and the magnitude and duration of the
cooling from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo.
If the ice melt is
due to
global warming, why have recent records shown that the warming process stopped about 7 years ago and we are now slightly
cooling?
At a time when the northern hemisphere was
cooling and the
global mean temperature still below the values of the early 1940s, they confidently predicted a rise in temperature
due to increasing CO2 emissions.
As an aside, people in Australia also are struggling to understand how our current
cool and very wet summer is
due to
global warming.
So during an ice - age, the
global temperature is
cooler than it would be
due to Milankovich cycles alone, because the ice - sheets reflect solar energy.
Interestingly, the paper «Climate Trends and
Global food production since 1980» (Lobell, Schlenker, Costa - Roberts, in Sciencexpress, 5 May, Science 1204531) confirms my finding of the absence of climate change in the USA: «A notable exception to the [global] warming pattern is the United States, which produces c. 40 % of global maize and soybean and experienced a slight cooling over the period... the country with largest overall share of crop production (United States) showed no [adverse] effect due to the lack of significant climate trends&r
Global food production since 1980» (Lobell, Schlenker, Costa - Roberts, in Sciencexpress, 5 May, Science 1204531) confirms my finding of the absence of climate change in the USA: «A notable exception to the [
global] warming pattern is the United States, which produces c. 40 % of global maize and soybean and experienced a slight cooling over the period... the country with largest overall share of crop production (United States) showed no [adverse] effect due to the lack of significant climate trends&r
global] warming pattern is the United States, which produces c. 40 % of
global maize and soybean and experienced a slight cooling over the period... the country with largest overall share of crop production (United States) showed no [adverse] effect due to the lack of significant climate trends&r
global maize and soybean and experienced a slight
cooling over the period... the country with largest overall share of crop production (United States) showed no [adverse] effect
due to the lack of significant climate trends».
Because of
global warming
due to increasing greenhouse gases, the maps from the late 1800s and the early 1900s are dominated by shades of blue, indicating temperatures were up to 3 °C (5.4 °F)
cooler than the twentieth - century average.
Although 2008 was the
coolest year of the decade,
due to strong
cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2009 saw a return to near - record
global temperatures.
Todays pet hypothesis is GW caused by greenhouse gasses I'm wondering what scientist would have found 40 years ago at the hight of the
global cooling hypothesis linking both
cooling events perhaps
due too a large aerosol release.
Until then, count me among the skeptics who consider this a political rather than scientific issue, especially in light of the fact that it is believed that the Antarctic and arctic shelves are breaking from stress (from «overgrowth»), not
due to heat, since they are larger than they have been during recorded history, and that when the alarmists are proven conclusively to be wrong, they change the terminology («
global cooling» to «
global warming» to «
global climate change» - face it, the
global climate always has been and always will be very dynamic).
This reveals an ignorance of the literature, otherwise you'd know that the extent of aerosol
cooling is estimated from the measured aerosol optical depth
due to volcanic eruptions and their consequent impact on
global temperature, and estimates of aerosol emissions during the 20th century.
This would be some combination of warmings and
coolings due to natural and / or human influences such as aerosols, instabilities in ocean currents, Length - Of - Day (LOD) fluctuations, the stadium wave (Wyatt and Curry), the 3M effect (me, December 17,
Global Environmental Change section, this AGU Fall Meeting), etc. etc..
Even if we accept that maybe a 1/3 or even a 1/2 degree of that may be
due to human activity, I will gladly take that, because that is an insurance policy on dangerous catastrophic
global cooling.
And ithere is nothing wrong with saying the expected
global cooling phase did not start 16 - years ago
due to increasing CO2 levels and WMGHG warming.
Myrrh, long before
global warming was an issue I was taught that some colors were
cooler than others and that this was
due to the amount of visible light that was reflected.
The climate models are still absolutely unable to discern either the amount or rate of
global warming /
cooling that is
due to natural forces.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or
cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to
cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to
cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly
cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse
global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a
global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the
global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements
due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time
cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small
global effect: we can say many matters are
due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is
due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is
due to UHI).
The near - linear rate of anthropogenic warming (predominantly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic
Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The
global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions
due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of
global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and
cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of
global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing»
The influence is clear: a pronounced recent ENSO - induced
cooling which has cancelled the continued
global warming
due to man - made CO2, leading to the «hiatus» in the increase of
global temperature.
In 1974 when the Club of Rome formulated it, the consensus was that
global cooling (
due to dust and pollution from natural volcanic eruptions and from industry) was screening out sunlight, and we were in for runaway glaciation and a new ice age.
If the surface pressure distribution begins to shift to a more meridional / equatorward pattern as it did around 2000 then if previously it was in a poleward / zonal mode it is clear that warming will have ceased and
cooling has begun
due to more
global cloudiness and less solar energy getting into the oceans.
There, it is written that the absorption of surface radiation by CO2 is saturated and that the decrease in the
global outgoing longwave emission
due to more CO2 in the air is only
due to the «higher and
cooler» emission level of tropospheric CO2 radiating to the cosmos.
With a declining solar intensity suggesting a further decline in AMOC and an increase in upwelling in the Pacific — the prediction is that the next
global climate shift —
due in a 2018 - 2028 window — will be to yet
cooler conditions.
When the world is
cooling and ther is negative correlation between CO2 and
global temperature and the IPCC declares «unequivocally concluded that our climate is warming rapidly, and that we are now at least 90 % certain that this is mostly
due to human activities» one must conclude that there is something terribly wrong with the IPCC!
The prediction is that the next
global climate shift —
due in a 2018 - 2028 window — will be to yet
cooler conditions.
As Figure 2 shows, the unadjusted data (pink) have tended to fall towards the lower end of IPCC projections in recent years, primarily
due to the preponderance of La Niña events and an extended solar cycle minimum, which have short - term
cooling influences on
global surface temperatures.
His work predicts that we are entering a period of reduced solar output and are
due for a period of
global cooling in a few years.
Cooling in the next
global climate shift —
due in a 2018 - 2028 window — is a prediction.
The next
global climate shift is
due in a window of 2018 - 2028 — and a
cooling Sun suggests a decline in AMOC and a
cooler Pacific.
As L&S admit, this
global dimming
due to aerosols «no doubt [has] a
cooling effect», yet it doesn't show up in their model.
The next
global climate shift is
due in a 2018 - 2028 window and the solar / terrestrial amplifier link suggests it will be to
cooler conditions.
The next
global climate shift —
due in a 2018 - 2028 window — will be to yet
cooler conditions.
I think it is time for a general update
due to subsequent developments (especially the current 2 year
global cooling trend and a quieter sun with
cooling oceans after an 8 year temperature plateau which tends to show that my point about solar and oceanic influences on
global temperatures has some merit) and the fact that I can make the essential points more simply by condensing them into a series of bullet points as follows:
1974: Scientists at National Academy of Science propose evacuation of 6 million from homes
due to
global cooling drought conditions
Randomly mentioning the stratosphere
cooling is a far, far, FAR cry from even approaching the viscinity of a claim you believe the earth has trapped: for years — so much heat from the sun that the stratosphere stopped being warmed
due to the thermal disconnect at the tropopause — that IS what Magic Gas's claim boils down to — that the lower atmosphere is somehow «hiding» such massive amounts of energy the fact you think it's credible on it's face is aNOTHer indicator which end of the
global warming argument pool, you're at, Don.
It will become increasingly clear in the next few years that
global temperatures have not warmed significantly since about 1980, and the small amount of observed atmospheric warming was primarily
due to the natural recovery after the temporary
cooling effect of two major volcanoes, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991 +.
Using the same assumptions at Christy and McNider 2017 (~ all changes are
due to increasing atm.CO2), I estimated TCS equals MINUS ~ 1C / (2xCO2) for the
global cooling period from 1940 to 1977, ~ equal but opposite sign to the PLUS 1.1 C calculated by Christy and McNider for 1979 to 2017.5.
Perhaps it's
due to a smaller
global energy imbalance
due to more aerosol
cooling and lower solar activity offsetting more of the greenhouse gas - caused warming.
In other words, the slowed surface warming isn't a result of a smaller
global energy imbalance
due to factors like increased
cooling from human aerosol emissions.
C / If
global temperatures decline and through stupidity after some way is found to limit and reduce CO2,
global CO2 levels are reduced through the efforts of activist climate science establishment then the world will go hungry as the world's farmers will not be able to grow enough food as both yields and cropped area are reduced
due to
cooler or colder temperatures and reduced amounts of that essential plant food, CO2 other wise known as that planet destroying «carbon».