In addition to Adrian Burd's recommendation, Al should read the comprehensive review by Wild: «
Global dimming and brightening: A review» http://www.leif.org/EOS/2008JD011470.pdf «Recent brightening can not supersede the greenhouse effect as the main cause of global warming, since land surface temperatures overall increased by 0.8 °C from 1960 to 2000, even though solar brightening did not fully outweigh prior dimming within this period...» The story is nowhere near as simplistic as Al would have it.
While
global dimming may be causing us to under - estimate the amount of global warming, other effects may be causing us to over-estimate it.
The effect is often called «
global dimming.»
The aerosol hypothesis is that sulfate aerosols and black carbon are the main cause of
global dimming, as they tend to act to cool the Earth by reflecting and scattering sunlight before it reaches the ground.
One theory that probably does not explain this differential is
global dimming.
In a large sense, this is why the global climate community has latched onto
the global dimming / aerosols hypothesis so quickly and so strongly.
If anything,
global dimming should work the other way, cooling the ground vs. the troposphere.
ANYONE remember
global dimming?
First though, this is a nice example of the power of words: Gerry Stanhill coined the observed reduction in solar energy reaching the ground «
global dimming».
Guest commentary on BBC documentary on «
Global Dimming» aired on January 13th 2005 by Beate Liepert, LDEO, Columbia University
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences who has previously conducted similar research on
the global dimming effects of aerosols.
Liepert, B., and A. Romanou, 2005:
Global dimming and brightening and the water cycle.
Lower atmospheric aerosols related to «
global dimming.
Reductions in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in recent years, for cleaner air, mainly in South East Asia due to a severe manufacturing sector slowdown and pollution policy changes (1,2) may attribute to current warming, since the phenomena called
global dimming is involved.
The models do reproduce the 20th century, and even the last 1000 years globally averaged reasonably well, observational data of forcing factors permitting, and they do this with the same physics that produce 2xCO2 sensitivity as 2.9 oC There is another essential factor in looking at current T rise vs CO2 forcing and that is
the global dimming phenomenon.
Global dimming An observed widespread reduction in sunlight at the surface of the Earth, which varies significantly between regions.
In some regions, such as Europe,
global dimming no longer occurs, thanks to clean air regulations.
Oh and I had another look at the Horizon «
Global Dimming» episode the other night.
Apparently
global dimming was detected in the 1960s,»70s,»80s and then reversed at the beginning of the 1990s.
I don't think
global dimming is very well understood or at least well quantified.
Anthropogenic
Global Dimming!
Alarmists have posited that
global dimming from anthropogenic aerosols reduced the warming that might have been expected, some implying that dimming may have prevented catastrophic warming.
In the past few years several attempts have been made to assess changes in the Earth's planetary albedo, and claims of
global dimming and more recently brightening have been debated in journal articles and blogs alike.
Alpert, P., Kishcha, P., Kaufman, Y. J., & Schwarzbard, R.
Global dimming or local dimming?
Stanhill, G. & Cohen, S.
Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reductions in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences.
steven, have you heard of
Global Dimming?
It is interesting, however, that the slowdown in ocean heat content accumulation during 2004-2007/2008 coincides with a strong
global dimming during that interval.
Search Youtube for «
global dimming».
Several studies suggest
global dimming aerosol cooling is not overestimated, but underestimated.
«
Global dimming is another term people aren't familiar with, 20 % of the suns rays are not hitting the Earth.
The one that utterly stupefies me — and this kind of thing really makes you want to take scientists out and introduce them to the real world — is the suggestion of «
global dimming.»
Actually, if we do take it seriously and say — cut down or stop burning fossil fuels — we jump up.5 to 3 degrees C. (due to the reduction of our sulfate caused
global dimming).
Horizon's mawkish treatment of the idea of
global dimming did nothing to inform the public; its intention was to provoke sensation — not understanding — at the hight of climate change alarmism.
«This is a film that demands action», says the voice over of the 2006 Horizon episode on «
Global Dimming».
The planet is now covered in a haze of toxic metal and chemical particulates which are a major component of «
global dimming ``.
Anyway 1 C per doubling falls short by a significant margin that they don't account for, and they have to ignore
global dimming too.
Global dimming was regional, despite its name.
Given he was behind
global dimming, it appears that he has either modified that hypothesis and adopted a new one that links BCff and SOx to warming.
You could also respond to Chief's link where it states
global dimming and brightening are determined by cloud cover.
While we saw truly
global dimming between 1950s - 80s (the sulfate aerosols were literally blown around the entire northern hemisphere), we currently find a more heterogeneous pattern.
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Scientists claim that global warming from greenhouse gases is being countered somewhat by
global dimming from aerosol pollution.
Now, how would all of this fit with the idea of GHGs - induced global warming mitigated by aerosols (
global dimming)?
As L&S admit,
this global dimming due to aerosols «no doubt [has] a cooling effect», yet it doesn't show up in their model.
We have recently discussed several papers which have found substantial
global dimming as a result of increased human aerosol emissions from 1950 to 1980 and 2000 to 2010.
Global dimming was the subject of a recent special on the PBS science series NOVA featuring Beate Liepert.
The effects of
global dimming are best evidenced by a 2 degree Celsius temperature increase in North America after all commercial flights were grounded for three days following the attacks of 9/11.
Mid-century aerosol «
global dimming» and the subsequent partial reduction («global brightening») have been well described in the work by Martin Wild and others.
Perhaps
global dimming has been a significant factor and will continue to be?)
Nearly half claimed AGW is offset by the cloud part of «
global dimming» of which Twomey found evidence for thin clouds yet there appears no evidence for thick clouds.
I notice you seem to be overlooking one of the major factors that prompted concerns about which way the climate would turn back in your «early Seventies» argument, the negative climate forcing of aerosols and other particulate pollutants that drove
global dimming.