In 2012, 70 percent of major
global droughts occurred in Africa.
Not exact matches
The researchers also looked at other extreme events, like the southeast Australian
drought of 2006 and the rain events that led to widespread flooding in Queensland in 2010, to see whether they would
occur more often as
global temperatures increased.
However, it says the observed changes in fire activity are in line with long - term,
global fire patterns that climate models have projected will
occur as temperatures increase and
droughts become more severe in the coming decades due to
global warming.
Increased heating from
global warming may not cause
droughts but it is expected that when
droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.
Prof Peirs Forster (Univ of Leeds, UK; IPCC lead author) led a 2012 study of the probability of extreme
drought across Asia, in which this was found to be liable to
occur within 10 years on a scale potentially threatening
global food security.
«We also present a set of
global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1)
droughts eventually
occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter
droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during
drought; (4) mortality can
occur faster in hotter
drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter
droughts occur more frequently than longer
droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal
drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery.
Whatever the cause —
global hydrological and climate variability — extreme
drought, extreme floods and extreme temperature changes such as has not been seen in the past century — will
occur again.
Climatologist and lead author Colin Kelley notes in an article he cowrote for the International Peace Institute, «three of the four most severe multiyear
droughts in Syria's observed record
occurred during the last 30 years, when the rate of
global carbon emissions has seen its largest increase.»
Drought is expected to
occur 20 - 40 percent more often in most of Australia over the coming decades.6, 18 If our heat - trapping emissions continue to rise at high rates, 19 more severe
droughts are projected for eastern Australia in the first half of this century.6, 17 And
droughts may
occur up to 40 percent more often in southeast Australia by 2070.2 Unless we act now to curb
global warming emissions, most regions of the country are expected to suffer exceptionally low soil moisture at almost double the frequency that they do now.3 Studies suggest that climate change is helping to weaken the trade winds over the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to change rainfall patterns in the region, including Australia.20, 21,16,22
If after five years of filtered sunlight a disaster
occurred — a
drought in India and Pakistan, for example, a possible effect in one of the modeling studies — we would not know whether it was caused by
global warming, the solar filter or natural variability.
In its latest assessment of the progress of climate change, the body said: «If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, which will require the strongest mitigation efforts, and currently looks very unlikely to be achieved, the substantial
global impacts will
occur, such as species extinctions, and millions of people at risk from
drought, hunger, flooding.»
A (2) Modern warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise,
drought and hurricane intensities... are all
occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)... and thus dangerous consequences to the
global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic influences.
When major volcanic eruptions do not
occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere,
global cooling and decadal
drought.
Scientists project that extreme weather events, such as heat waves,
droughts, blizzards and rainstorms will continue to
occur more often and with greater intensity due to
global warming, according to Climate Central.
Even normally
occurring droughts have begun to be made more severe by rising
global temperatures and climate changes.
The real fallacy is thinking we can «do something about it» an event that
occurs naturally -
global cooling,
global warming, regional cooling, regional warming,
drought, monsoon, etc..
It is also widely agreed that the world has seen a spate of extreme heat events in recent years, such as the 2011 Texas heat wave and
drought and the deadly 2010 heat wave in Russia, and that
global warming made some of these events more likely to
occur and more severe.
This reduction of sunlight further amplifies the currently
occurring global droughts.
February 2006:
Drought in England: Interesting that the
drought of note (1976) should have
occurred at the end of the period of cooling that caused such
global angst.
This does not mean, of course, that
droughts haven't
occurred in North America over the last 100 years, but it doesn't support a link between rising
global temperature and increased
drought.